2017 Week 19 xG Matchup Rankings

Week 19 xG Match Up Rankings

With unlimited transfers this season, match ups are more important than ever. The question is how to evaluate match ups, especially if you’re only an aspiring Armchair Analyst and not yet the real thing. The answer? Expected Goals (xG).

What are expected goals (xG)

The idea behind xG is simple. Every shot is awarded a probability of scoring based on the position on the field and the game situation, based on giant databases of shots from years and years of data. Then at the end of the game all the xGs from the individual shots are added up to generate the team’s xG for that game. This metric is a useful measure of the teams overall attacking or defending play, more so than just looking at how many goals a team has scored or allowed. If you’d like to learn more, there’s a nice video by MLS to explain further:

http://www.mlssoccer.com/post/2017/04/24/what-are-expected-goals-learn-what-you-need-know-about-statistic

How to use these rankings

The rankings below use the xG metric to rank the match ups each week to help you determine which teams you should try to choose your attackers or defenders from. Each teams score is an average of their xG/g and their opponent’s xG/g separated out into offense/defense and home/away match ups. For example, if Atlanta plays NYCFC at home. Atlanta has an average home xG/g is 1.62 and NYCFC’s has an average away xG/g allowed is 0.96 for an offensive xG score  of 1.29 xG. The reverse can be done to calculate their defensive score for this week. The game by game xG numbers are taken from Ben Baer’s weekly xG article.

Week 19 Offense xG Match Up Rankings

Season Offense: Match up calculated using season xG average.

Form Offense: Match up calculated using average of last 3 games.

Week 19 RankTeamOpponentH/ASeason OFFForm OFF
1NE RevolutionNYRBH1.841.81
2LA GalaxyRSLH1.561.78
3Houston DynamoMTLH1.661.42
4Portland TimbersCHIH1.511.56
5Minnesota UnitedCLBH1.481.39
6Orlando CityTORH1.361.51
7Sporting Kansas CityPHIH1.331.53
8TorontoOCSCA1.361.46
9Atlanta UnitedSJEH1.321.41
10FC DallasDCUH1.371.26
11Vancouver Whitecaps FCNYCFCH1.181.33
12NY Red BullsNERA1.011.49
13Colorado RapidsSEAH1.231.26
14Columbus CrewMINA1.261.14
15Chicago FirePORA1.141.22
16RSLLAGA1.081.2
17NYCFCVANA1.061.12
18Seattle SoundersCOLA1.041
19Montreal ImpactHOUA0.880.96
20DC UnitedFCDA0.870.94
21Philadelphia UnionSKCA0.770.81
22San Jose EarthquakesATLA0.830.75

Week 19 Defense xG Match Up Rankings

Season Defense: Match up calculated using season xG average.

Form Defense: Match up calculated using average of last 3 games.

Week 17 RankTeamOpponentH/ASeason DEFForm DEF
1Atlanta UnitedSJEH0.830.75
2Sporting Kansas CityPHIH0.770.81
3FC DallasDCUH0.870.94
4Houston DynamoMTLH0.880.96
5Colorado RapidsSEAH1.041
6Vancouver Whitecaps FCNYCFCH1.061.12
7LA GalaxyRSLH1.081.2
8Portland TimbersCHIH1.141.22
9Minnesota UnitedCLBH1.261.14
10Seattle SoundersCOLH1.231.26
11NE RevolutionNYRBA1.011.49
12NYCFCVANA1.181.33
13DC UnitedFCDA1.371.26
14San Jose EarthquakesATLA1.321.41
15Orlando CityTORH1.361.46
16Philadelphia UnionSKCA1.331.53
17Columbus CrewMINA1.481.39
18TorontoOCSCA1.361.51
19Chicago FirePORA1.511.56
20Montreal ImpactHOUA1.661.42
21RSLLAGA1.561.78
22NY Red BullsNERA1.841.81

About Kyle Mcelhinny

Scientist by day, soccer fan by night. Nerd always. Using stats to overcome my lack of knowledge about the beautiful game.

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