2017 Week 25 xG Matchup Rankings

Week 24 xG Matchup Rankings

With unlimited transfers this season, match ups are more important than ever. The question is how to evaluate match ups, especially if you’re only an aspiring Armchair Analyst and not yet the real thing. The answer? Expected Goals (xG).

What are expected goals (xG)

The idea behind xG is simple. Every shot is awarded a probability of scoring based on the position on the field and the game situation, based on giant databases of shots from years and years of data. Then at the end of the game all the xGs from the individual shots are added up to generate the team’s xG for that game. This metric is a useful measure of the teams overall attacking or defending play, more so than just looking at how many goals a team has scored or allowed. If you’d like to learn more, there’s a nice video by MLS to explain further:

http://www.mlssoccer.com/post/2017/04/24/what-are-expected-goals-learn-what-you-need-know-about-statistic

How to use these rankings

The rankings below use the xG metric to rank the match ups each week to help you determine which teams you should try to choose your attackers or defenders from. Each teams score is an average of their xG/g and their opponent’s xG/g separated out into offense/defense and home/away match ups. For example, if Atlanta plays NYCFC at home. Atlanta has an average home xG/g is 1.62 and NYCFC’s has an average away xG/g allowed is 0.96 for an offensive xG score  of 1.29 xG. The reverse can be done to calculate their defensive score for this week. The game by game xG numbers are taken from Ben Baer’s weekly xG article.

Week 25 Offense xG Match Up Rankings

Season Offense: Match up calculated using season xG average.

Form Offense: Match up calculated using average of last 3 games.

Week 29 RankTeamOpponentH/ASeason OFFForm OFF
1Atlanta UnitedLAGH1.782.58
2Atlanta UnitedMTLH1.822.51
3Sporting Kansas CityLAGH1.581.87
4TorontoMTLH1.61.83
5Columbus CrewNYRBH1.561.78
6Portland TimbersORLH1.641.67
7DC UnitedSJEH1.391.8
8RSLSEAH1.521.67
9Philadelphia UnionCHIH1.561.56
10NYCFCHOUH1.51.5
11Seattle SoundersRSLA1.221.55
12FC DallasMINA1.361.39
13Vancouver Whitecaps FCCOLH1.581.07
14Houston DynamoNYCFCA1.181.41
15Minnesota UnitedFCDH1.241.35
16TorontoNERA1.281.31
17Chicago FirePHIA1.271.29
18NE RevolutionTORH1.531.03
19San Jose EarthquakesDCUA1.091.25
20Orlando CityPORA1.031.07
21Colorado RapidsVANA0.961.03
22NY Red BullsCLBA1.050.79
23Montreal ImpactTORA0.880.76
24LA GalaxyATLA0.880.75
25LA GalaxySKCA0.860.66
26Montreal ImpactATLA0.790.64

Week 25 Defense xG Match Up Rankings

Season Defense: Match up calculated using season xG average.

Form Defense: Match up calculated using average of last 3 games.

Week 29 RankTeamOpponentH/ASeason DEFForm DEF
1Atlanta UnitedMTLH0.790.73
2Sporting Kansas CityLAGH0.860.66
3Atlanta UnitedLAGH0.880.75
4TorontoMTLH0.880.76
5Columbus CrewNYRBH1.050.79
6Vancouver Whitecaps FCCOLH0.961.03
7Portland TimbersORLH1.031.07
8DC UnitedSJEH1.091.25
9Philadelphia UnionCHIH1.271.29
10TorontoNERA1.531.03
11NYCFCHOUH1.181.41
12FC DallasMINA1.241.35
13NE RevolutionTORH1.281.31
14Minnesota UnitedFCDH1.361.39
15RSLSEAH1.221.55
16Houston DynamoNYCFCA1.51.5
17Chicago FirePHIA1.561.56
18Seattle SoundersRSLA1.521.67
19San Jose EarthquakesDCUA1.391.8
20Orlando CityPORA1.641.67
21NY Red BullsCLBA1.561.78
22Montreal ImpactTORA1.61.83
23LA GalaxySKCA1.581.87
24Colorado RapidsVANA1.582.05
25Montreal ImpactATLA1.822.51
26LA GalaxyATLA1.782.58

Week 25 DGW Offense xG Match Up Rankings

Season Offense: Match up calculated using season xG average, average of two games  this week.

Form Offense: Match up calculated using average of last 3 games, average of two games  this week.

Week 29 RankTeamOFF
1Atlanta United2.1725
2Toronto1.505
3LA Galaxy0.7875
4Montreal Impact0.7675

Week 25 DGW Defense xG Match Up Rankings

Season Defense: Match up calculated using season xG average, average of two games  this week.

Form Defense: Match up calculated using average of last 3 games, average of two games  this week.

Week 28 RankTeamDEF
1Atlanta United0.7875
2Toronto1.05
3Montreal Impact1.94
4LA Galaxy1.9525

About Kyle Mcelhinny

Scientist by day, soccer fan by night. Nerd always. Using stats to overcome my lack of knowledge about the beautiful game.

Check Also

2017 Round 28 Form Difficulty Charts

There are many different types of articles that can help fantasy managers prepare for each …

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *