2017 Week 25 xG Matchup Rankings

Week 24 xG Matchup Rankings

With unlimited transfers this season, match ups are more important than ever. The question is how to evaluate match ups, especially if you’re only an aspiring Armchair Analyst and not yet the real thing. The answer? Expected Goals (xG).

What are expected goals (xG)

The idea behind xG is simple. Every shot is awarded a probability of scoring based on the position on the field and the game situation, based on giant databases of shots from years and years of data. Then at the end of the game all the xGs from the individual shots are added up to generate the team’s xG for that game. This metric is a useful measure of the teams overall attacking or defending play, more so than just looking at how many goals a team has scored or allowed. If you’d like to learn more, there’s a nice video by MLS to explain further:

http://www.mlssoccer.com/post/2017/04/24/what-are-expected-goals-learn-what-you-need-know-about-statistic

How to use these rankings

The rankings below use the xG metric to rank the match ups each week to help you determine which teams you should try to choose your attackers or defenders from. Each teams score is an average of their xG/g and their opponent’s xG/g separated out into offense/defense and home/away match ups. For example, if Atlanta plays NYCFC at home. Atlanta has an average home xG/g is 1.62 and NYCFC’s has an average away xG/g allowed is 0.96 for an offensive xG score  of 1.29 xG. The reverse can be done to calculate their defensive score for this week. The game by game xG numbers are taken from Ben Baer’s weekly xG article.

Week 25 Offense xG Match Up Rankings

Season Offense: Match up calculated using season xG average.

Form Offense: Match up calculated using average of last 3 games.

Week 31 RankTeamOpponentH/ASeason OFFForm OFF
1Atlanta UnitedMINH2.231.89
2NY Red BullsVANH1.611.79
3Houston DynamoSKCH1.461.69
4Colorado RapidsFCDH1.331.8
5FC DallasCOLA1.181.35
6Sporting Kansas CityMINA1.21.32
7Minnesota UnitedSKCH1.161.24
8Sporting Kansas CityHOUA0.991.09
9Vancouver Whitecaps FCNYRBA0.930.86
10Minnesota UnitedATLA0.940.78

Week 25 Defense xG Match Up Rankings

Season Defense: Match up calculated using season xG average.

Form Defense: Match up calculated using average of last 3 games.

Week 31 RankTeamOpponentH/ASeason DEFForm DEF
1Atlanta UnitedMINH0.940.78
2NY Red BullsVANH0.930.86
3Houston DynamoSKCH0.991.09
4Sporting Kansas CityMINA1.161.24
5Minnesota UnitedSKCH1.21.32
6Colorado RapidsFCDH1.181.35
7FC DallasCOLA1.331.8
8Sporting Kansas CityHOUA1.461.69
9Vancouver Whitecaps FCNYRBA1.611.79
10Minnesota UnitedATLA2.231.89

Week 25 DGW Offense xG Match Up Rankings

Season Offense: Match up calculated using season xG average, average of two games  this week.

Form Offense: Match up calculated using average of last 3 games, average of two games  this week.

Week 31 RankTeamOFF
1SKC1.15
2MIN1.03

Week 25 DGW Defense xG Match Up Rankings

Season Defense: Match up calculated using season xG average, average of two games  this week.

Form Defense: Match up calculated using average of last 3 games, average of two games  this week.

Week 31 RankTeamDEF
1SKC1.3875
2MIN1.66

About Kyle Mcelhinny

Scientist by day, soccer fan by night. Nerd always. Using stats to overcome my lack of knowledge about the beautiful game.

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