Best XI Predictions – Round 19: Planning for the 2nd Half

Best XI Predictions - Round 19: Planning for the 2nd Half

For this week’s Best XI, we are going to take a look at the remaining schedule and who will be getting significant minutes and should produce points. With every player on a WC, the focus is shifting from picking players to looking at what makes players prime to pick up.

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Schedule

First and foremost we must look at the schedule. There are six rounds before 8 teams go on a bye week. That translates to 12 free transfers between now and then. This translates to needing five Round 25 players in Round 22. Round 27 is another week with 8 teams on bye with two of those teams being repeats from Round 25. To further complicate things, three of those eight are playing a DGW in Round 27.

As we look ahead, we see a massive set of byes in Round 32. In fact only six teams will play and two will play twice. Thankfully Round 33 is a fixed wildcard where everyone can select different players.

Green Light Teams

CHI, DC, LA, NER, and PHI are all playing straight through to round 32.

CHI, COL, CLB, HOU, SJ, and SKC are playing round 32.

CHI, COL, CLB, DC, HOU, LA, MTL(2), ORL(2), POR RSL, SJ, SEA, and TFC(2) all have DGWs this half of the season.

Red Light Teams

DAL, POR, and SKC all have multiple bye weeks.

If you plan ahead, you can mitigate the bulk of the damage. It’s also highly advised to plan your wildcard use if at all possible. Rounds 25, 27, and 32 will allow you to capitalize on the short weeks and prepare for the future. Rounds 26 and 28 will allow you to break away from the bottleneck faster. Round 31 may be the ideal point. Three of the six teams playing in Round 32 are on a DGW and the three free transfers following the use of the wildcard makes it possible to get a full roster for both rounds and capitalize on DGW players in each round.

Finally, there are World Cup Qualifiers, CCL games, and the remainder of the USOC going on. Keep a close eye as players will be leaving for international duty or playing extra games. Make sure you don’t stock up too heavily on potential absences.

Players

Premium players are a must right now. The value options just aren’t there in the attacking half this year.

Goalkeepers

With all the information provided above, it’s best to look at Rowe and Blake as first choice options. Since GK transfers aren’t highly advised. You can always use your WC to set up for Round 32 before it comes. Selecting a Round 32 keeper to have on your radar isn’t a bad option either.

Key Players

  • Blake
  • Rowe
  • Rimando

Defenders

For the second half of the season, the strategy is the same. The backline is all about getting the job done as cheaply as possible. With the exception of Moor and Zimmerman, who are the only two expensive options, the rest should be familiar faces.

Key Players

  • Zimmerman
  • Moor
  • Sjoberg
  • Steres
  • Campbell

Value Players

  • Glad
  • Allen

Midfielders

Here is the point where everything we know gets turned upside down. Valeri is injured, Piatti is potentially facing a suspension for a violent tackle, Diaz gets rested, and Kljestan isn’t performing. Those four are staples of many teams. They key players have to be there, but their replacements need to stay on your radar, especially Nguyen who doesn’t have a bye until Round 32. There are also a few players who are tearing it up in the PPG category for cheaper prices.

Key Players

  • Valeri
  • Piatti
  • Diaz
  • Kljestan

Radar Players

  • Nguyuen
  • Gerrard
  • Feilhaber
  • Kaka

Value Players

  • Alonso
  • Medranda
  • Molino
  • Accam
  • Sarvas

Balancing the transitions as key players miss games and making sure you get them back into the lineup before you lose points is critical.

Forwards

Forwards are in almost the same boat as midfielders, but magnified. One great game can easily be cancelled out by a two point stinker. Running a 3-4-3 through the second half may be suicide. Besides the big three, the rest have been streaky at best and the big three have their issues as well.

Key Players

  • Giovinco
  • Keane
  • Villa

Radar Players

  • O Kamara
  • K Kamara
  • BWP
  • Larin
  • Sapong

As part of your player selection process, you should look at the current yellow card situation. 5 yellow cards is an automatic suspension, but every second yellow after that results in a suspension as well. There are currently 20 players above the 5 YC mark. Relying on any of these players could easily come back to haunt you. The entire list of cards can be found here.

Author’s Notes

I’m a firm believer in the 3-4-3, but I’m strongly considering running a 3-5-2 for the majority of the second half of the season.  Feel free comment below your preference for the second half.

Sadly, this happy joyous time of blowing up a struggling team isn’t so happy under the surface. Hopefully the points highlighted will help. Good luck to everyone during the second half of the season and don’t forget to schedule your wildcard.

About Blayne Riffle

Blayne is an IT Technician with a math degree, online journalist, and MLS Discussion Group moderator.

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6 comments

  1. This is one of the best written articles this year. Condensed, organized and logical. This article is really helpful for anyone who is struggling and not scoring high in a regular bases. Well done.

    • Thanks Brad. I love the feedback. Sadly Best XI will be going back to the original format for round 20, but I’m hoping to pick up this line of think in Playtime Analysis.

      Let me know what you think of this idea: Playtime Analysis starter out as a “who’s playing odd minutes” but I’m thinking of adding in a “get a full XI/get maximum DGWs” depending on the schedule. Should I start including how many players for the massive bye weeks are needed to field a full XI without -4s?

      • It sounds like a great idea. This information makes a big difference for those of us who want to play seriously but don’t have the time to look at every aspect of the schedule.

  2. I think some of the Colorado guys represent an opportunity for value differentials. JJ is back, and Doyle has been putting up points lately.

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