Predictions and Power Rankings for Round 1

Predictions and Power Rankings for Round 1

The following predictions are based on the ELO ranking system. This system was first used in Chess to calculate the skill level of players and predict the most likely winner. Since soccer can end in a draw, I’m using a modified version of this formula that tries to predict the chance that a team will come away from a match with points (either as a win or a draw).

The system starts each new team at a score of 1500 and then adjusts their rating as the season goes on. My current team scores include data from 1996-2014 (with some adjustment to account for the changing MLS win/draw rules). These scores are how I rank teams for my Power Rankings table.

Last season, this ELO system predicted the winner of a game 47% of the time. When the results are expand to include draws, the success rate goes up to 74%.

But enough background. With the start of the 2015 just around the corner, here are the MLS Fantasy Boss predictions and power rankings for round 1.

Predictions

 Power Rankings

The following predictions are based on the ELO ranking system. This system was first used in Chess to calculate the skill level of players and predict the most likely winner. Since soccer can end in a draw, I’m using a modified version of this formula that tries to predict the chance that a team will come away from a match with points (either as a win or a draw). The system starts each new team at a score of 1500 and then adjusts their rating as the season goes on. My current team scores include data from 1996-2014 (with some…

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About Dashdar

Founder of MLS Fantasy Boss, moderator of /r/FantasyMLS, freelance contributing writer for fantasy.MLSsoccer.com. Passionate about all things MLS and growing the Fantasy MLS community.

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3 comments

  1. Your form difficulty chart matched your predictions, e.g. form difficulty for HOU v CLB is red6 v 4yellow, but here you’re predicting a HOU win. — a bit unnerving as I have a player from each team at the moment and am waivering.

    I might ship at Deric and replace him with someone else…hmm

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