As you all know, I’m a fan of the ELO ranking system. So when the World Cup started, I setup an Excel spreadsheet to help me do the calculations just like I use for MLS. Now that the Group stage is over, I decided to see how I did.
Of the the 48 games that were played in Group stage, there were 29 Wins, 10 Loss, and 9 Draws. Since a draw counts as half a win (because both teams get a point), the system ended with a success rate of 79% for predicting which team would get points out of a game.
Not too bad right? Unfortunately, I build my bracket using this system and it had Spain going much farther. So I’m not doing too well when it comes to that, but I’m very excited about the result so far. That being said, here’s how things look for the Round of 16.
There is one more thing I want to point out from my results and it concerns the USA game. I went back and looked at all the previous games that had a win percentage or 10% or less separating them. There were 15 games. Of these games, the team with the higher percentage won 6 times, lose 5 times, and drew 4 times. So I feel like the US had a good chance and I’m hoping that my ELO system has this one wrong.
How do these match up to your predictions? Let me know by sending me a Tweet at @MLSFantasyBoss or join the Live Chat just n the sidebar to the right.