Stats Summary – Bonus Point Difference

 

Bonus Point DifferenceWeek 1 is in the books and now the season-long game begins in earnest. One week is not enough of a sample size for us to say anything for sure, but we can look backwards to what players did last year to help us figure out if a player is for real. Let’s look at the difference between this game and last year’s bonus points per game for returning players.

The table below shows players who had a difference of at least 1.5 bonus points between game 1 and their bonus points per game from 2016. The most important question we need to ask is, “did this player’s situation change?” This includes adding or losing free-kick responsibilities, changing position, changing team, a new head coach with a significantly different tactical vision, etc.

PlayerPositionTeamPoints2017 BP/g2016 BP/startDifference
GodoyMIDSJ1572.64.4
MarshallDEFSEA551.53.5
SjobergDEFCOL1251.63.4
BeckermanMIDRSL851.83.2
ZavaletaDEFTOR1141.12.9
CimanDEFMTL752.42.6
MeramMIDCLB941.42.6
MoorDEFTOR1141.72.3
ZusiMIDSKC741.72.3
WondolowskiFWDSJ830.72.3
VillaFWDNYC641.82.2
TorresDEFSEA330.82.2
JonesMIDLA4312
MeiraDEFCHI642.11.9
dos SantosFWDLA1031.11.9
JeffreyMIDDC631.11.9
DeLeonMIDDC631.21.8
RoldanMIDSEA531.21.8
TaylorDEFMIN220.31.7
ParkerDEFVAN1031.41.6
CaldwellMIDNE531.51.5
PowersMIDCOL531.51.5
AllenDEFNYC420.51.5
FrancisDEFSJ701.5-1.5
TierneyDEFNE101.5-1.5
DonadelMIDMTL201.6-1.6
NguyenMIDNE101.6-1.6
SamMIDDC301.6-1.6
RivasMIDORL601.7-1.7
B GarciaMIDHOU101.8-1.8
FabinhoDEFPHI701.8-1.8
WatsonDEFNE101.8-1.8
CarrascoMIDORL301.9-1.9
SalinasMIDSJ001.9-1.9
ChanotDEFNYC313-2
AffulDEFCLB202-2
BuescherMIDDC502-2
KakáMIDORL102-2
MatarritaDEFNYC202.1-2.1
HiguitaMIDORL102.3-2.3
GiovincoFWDTOR102.6-2.6

Godoy and all the chatter surrounding him is the inspiration for this piece. He is the most transferred in player at time of writing and scored a whopping 15 points. You guys all remember last year when Andrew Wenger scored big in weeks 1 and 2, everyone brought him in, then he did absolutely nothing the rest of the season? The Godoy situation isn’t as bad as that, but he will not be anywhere close to averaging 7 bonus points, let alone scoring many goals. Same coach, same tactics, same position… he’ll regress back to 5-ish total points in most games. He scored 8 or more in 22% of games and scored 3 or fewer in 28% of games. That’s comparable to about a dozen defenders who are all cheaper and allow you to upgrade elsewhere.

The vast majority of the players on this list did not have a change in situation. Here’s the players who I immediately spot with a changed situation. Zusi changed positions, but is out of position in the wrong direction. Taylor changed teams, but Minnesota defense looks leaky. Jermaine Jones changed team and position, but $8.0 is too pricey for me. Powers played as the 10 and took set pieces with Gashi out. I like him at that price point until Gashi returns. There’s a couple non-starters at the bottom of the list we can ignore for fantasy. It is too early to call for these players whether their bonus point production will remain high. I expect the rest of the players to return to similar levels of bonus point production as they had last season. And just to be explicit, expect a bounce back from Giovinco.

About Andrew Crollard

Andrew has worked as both an economist/data analyst and as a university and youth soccer coach. Naturally, marrying soccer and data together is a perfect fit.

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