Week 17 xG Match Up Rankings

Week 17 xG Match Up Rankings

With unlimited transfers this season, match ups are more important than ever. The question is how to evaluate match ups, especially if you’re only an aspiring Armchair Analyst and not yet the real thing. The answer? Expected Goals (xG).

What are expected goals (xG)

The idea behind xG is simple. Every shot is awarded a probability of scoring based on the position on the field and the game situation, based on giant databases of shots from years and years of data. Then at the end of the game all the xGs from the individual shots are added up to generate the team’s xG for that game. This metric is a useful measure of the teams overall attacking or defending play, more so than just looking at how many goals a team has scored or allowed. If you’d like to learn more, there’s a nice video by MLS to explain further:

http://www.mlssoccer.com/post/2017/04/24/what-are-expected-goals-learn-what-you-need-know-about-statistic

How to use these rankings

The rankings below use the xG metric to rank the match ups each week to help you determine which teams you should try to choose your attackers or defenders from. Each teams score is an average of their xG/g and their opponent’s xG/g separated out into offense/defense and home/away match ups. For example, if Atlanta plays NYCFC at home. Atlanta has an average home xG/g is 1.62 and NYCFC’s has an average away xG/g allowed is 0.96 for an offensive xG score  of 1.29 xG. The reverse can be done to calculate their defensive score for this week. The game by game xG numbers are taken from Ben Baer’s weekly xG article.

Week 17 Offense xG Match Up Rankings

Season Offense: Match up calculated using season xG average.

Form Offense: Match up calculated using average of last 3 games.

Week 20 RankTeamOpponentH/ASeason OFFForm OFF
1Atlanta UnitedOCSCH1.551.88
2FC DallasVANH1.471.91
3LA GalaxySEAH1.461.72
4Sporting Kansas CityCHIH1.471.69
5NE RevolutionPHIH1.531.56
6NY Red BullsMTLH1.511.34
7Minnesota UnitedDCUH1.421.33
8DC UnitedMINA1.21.54
9Houston DynamoPORH1.51.23
10Columbus CrewPHIA1.321.37
11RSLCLBH1.361.26
12Seattle SoundersLAGA1.181.32
13TorontoNYCFCH1.221.19
14Philadelphia UnionCLBH1.40.95
15Columbus CrewRSLA1.221.1
16Chicago FireSKCA1.041.28
17San Jose EarthquakesCOLH1.261
18NYCFCTORA1.251.01
19Philadelphia UnionNERA0.961.27
20Portland TimbersHOUA1.061.05
21Montreal ImpactNYRBA0.911.12
22Orlando CityATLA0.910.92
23Vancouver Whitecaps FCFCDA0.890.94
24Colorado RapidsSJEA0.740.74

Week 17 Defense xG Match Up Rankings

Season Defense: Match up calculated using season xG average.

Form Defense: Match up calculated using average of last 3 games.

Week 20 RankTeamOpponentH/ASeason DEFForm DEF
1San Jose EarthquakesCOLH0.740.74
2Atlanta UnitedOCSCH0.910.92
3FC DallasVANH0.890.94
4NY Red BullsMTLH0.911.12
5Houston DynamoPORH1.061.05
6NE RevolutionPHIH0.961.27
7TorontoNYCFCA1.251.01
8Colorado RapidsSJEH1.261
9Sporting Kansas CityCHIH1.041.28
10RSLCLBH1.221.1
11Columbus CrewPHIA1.40.95
12NYCFCTORA1.221.19
13LA GalaxySEAA1.181.32
14Columbus CrewRSLH1.361.26
15Philadelphia UnionCLBA1.321.37
16Portland TimbersHOUH1.51.23
17Minnesota UnitedDCUH1.21.54
18DC UnitedMINA1.421.33
19Montreal ImpactNYRBA1.511.34
20Philadelphia UnionNERA1.531.56
21Chicago FireSKCA1.471.69
22Seattle SoundersLAGA1.461.72
23Vancouver Whitecaps FCFCDA1.471.91
24Orlando CityATLA1.551.88

Week 17 DGW Offense xG Match Up Rankings

Season Offense: Match up calculated using season xG average, average of two games  this week.

Form Offense: Match up calculated using average of last 3 games, average of two games  this week.

Week 20 RankTeamOFF
1NYCFC1.59
2Portland Timbers1.5725
3Seattle Sounders1.44
4NY Red Bulls1.425
5Minnesota United1.405
6LA Galaxy1.365
7Houston Dynamo1.2925
8Toronto1.225
9Montreal Impact1.21
10Vancouver Whitecaps FC1.1825
11DC United1.105
12RSL1.085
13Philadelphia Union0.955
14San Jose Earthquakes0.945

Week 17 DGW Defense xG Match Up Rankings

Season Defense: Match up calculated using season xG average, average of two games  this week.

Form Defense: Match up calculated using average of last 3 games, average of two games  this week.

Week 20 RankTeamDEF
1Seattle Sounders0.945
2Montreal Impact1.01
3NYCFC1.0175
4Portland Timbers1.11
5Toronto1.185
6NY Red Bulls1.2175
7Philadelphia Union1.2375
8Houston Dynamo1.2925
9DC United1.315
10Minnesota United1.34
11RSL1.4025
12San Jose Earthquakes1.46
13Vancouver Whitecaps FC1.4625
14LA Galaxy1.565

About Kyle Mcelhinny

Scientist by day, soccer fan by night. Nerd always. Using stats to overcome my lack of knowledge about the beautiful game.

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