Draft analysis – Week 1 – Ceiling vs Consistency

MVP of the week – Adi, 16 points – Two goals in stoppage time saved him but Portland’s attack looks extremely dangerous and Adi should be in the running for golden boot.

Bonus point monster of the week – Godoy, 7 bonus points – I don’t think 7 BP is sustainable, he earned 2 foul bonus and got significantly more recoveries than he averaged last year.

Waiver Wire line of the week – Godoy, 15 total points -Godoy should be owned in all leagues with 6 or more teams. I had him ranked as 5th round value going into the season and I think his upside is closer to late second round value similar to Michael Bradley.

Dud of the week – Giovinco, 1 point – A missed penalty resulted in a 7 point swing for the best player in fantasy. I’ll be surprised if he pops up as the dud of the week again this season.

Ceiling vs Consistency

The majority of people playing draft fantasy came over from the season long game. As a result, they carry some player biases with them. One such bias is picking players who have a high ceiling, while ignoring the fact they have a low floor. The flip side is that they ignore more consistent players. The median score in fantasy is 4 points. Any score less than 4 hurts your chances of winning your head to head. Any score more than 4 helps you. The table below shows how likely a player was to help your score vs hurt your score last season. In the last column, any score above 1 means they were more likely to help you than hurt you and any score less than 1 means they were more likely to hurt than help.

web_name2016 position2016 teamppstart% help% hurtRatio of help vs hurt
AlonsoMIDSEA6.30.880.0328
LodeiroMIDSEA8.30.920.0811
GiovincoFWDTOR9.40.70.079.5
BradleyMIDTOR5.90.710.088.5
WilliamsDEFCOL5.50.80.136
ValeriMIDPOR7.40.70.135.3
McCartyMIDNY5.80.560.124.7
MacMathGKPCOL5.10.470.124
FeilhaberMIDSKC6.70.710.184
AziraMIDCOL4.70.560.153.8
KljestanMIDNY7.40.630.173.8
HairstonDEFCOL6.90.770.233.3
DíazMIDDAL7.50.750.253
GashiFWDCOL6.20.560.22.8
MoralesMIDRSL5.50.480.172.8
LletgetMIDLA50.610.262.3
PerquisDEFTOR4.80.640.272.3
PiattiMIDMTL7.50.610.292.1
MolinoMIDORL6.60.60.282.1
SarvasMIDDC5.20.560.282
AlexMIDHOU4.80.570.292
HusidicMIDLA4.40.470.242
VillaFWDNYC7.60.560.282
KakáMIDORL7.50.550.272
NagbeMIDPOR5.20.440.222
PhillipsDEFRSL50.520.262
BolañosMIDVAN5.50.580.292
HowardGKPCOL5.50.590.292
AffulDEFCLB5.60.520.281.9
RoweGKPLA5.40.550.291.9
BurlingDEFCOL4.90.560.311.8
PowersMIDCOL4.50.380.211.8
dos SantosFWDLA6.80.540.311.8
YaroDEFPHI4.40.540.311.8
JohnsonMIDTOR50.50.281.8
SjobergDEFCOL5.30.550.321.7
O. KamaraFWDCLB7.40.60.351.7
MatarritaDEFNYC5.40.570.331.7
ZubarDEFNY4.90.560.331.7
CreavalleMIDPHI4.30.50.31.7
GladDEFRSL4.70.520.31.7
GodoyMIDSJ4.90.450.271.7
LampsonGKPCHI5.30.450.271.7
NyarkoMIDDC60.520.331.6
HedgesDEFDAL5.20.50.311.6
NguyenMIDNE5.50.480.31.6
Wright-PhillipsFWDNY6.90.590.381.6
AltidoreFWDTOR5.80.530.331.6
HiguaínMIDCLB5.70.50.331.5
AgudeloFWDNE5.30.560.381.5
BonoGKPTOR4.90.40.271.5
MorrowDEFTOR5.50.570.371.5
MendozaFWDNYC4.60.550.361.5
AccamMIDCHI6.30.550.41.4
HarrisDEFDAL4.90.520.381.4
ZimmermanDEFDAL5.60.430.31.4
B GarciaMIDHOU4.90.520.361.4
AllenDEFNYC5.10.530.371.4
SaundersGKPNYC4.50.520.361.4
PlataFWDRSL5.90.540.391.4
LabaMIDVAN4.30.450.321.4
GoossensMIDCHI4.70.540.381.4
NaessDEFCLB5.10.540.381.4
MeramMIDCLB5.90.450.351.3
SaiedMIDCLB4.50.380.291.3
KempDEFDC50.50.41.3
HarrisonMIDNYC5.60.470.351.3
SamMIDNY5.70.50.381.3
DawkinsMIDSJ4.50.520.411.3
EvansDEFSEA4.60.450.351.3
de LeeuwFWDCHI5.10.560.441.3
NeagleMIDDC5.60.480.381.2
BrillantDEFNYC4.70.480.421.2
PirloMIDNYC5.10.50.411.2
FelipeMIDNY5.10.480.391.2
LadeDEFNY4.50.470.41.2
LarinFWDORL5.40.540.461.2
MedrandaMIDSKC4.50.320.271.2
RamosDEFCHI4.60.50.441.1
BurchDEFCOL4.60.440.411.1
FigueroaDEFDAL4.40.480.441.1
SeitzGKPDAL4.80.390.361.1
CimanDEFMTL4.40.390.361.1
DuvallDEFNY4.70.50.451.1
BernardezDEFSJ4.50.440.411.1
MarshallDEFSEA4.90.470.431.1
WastonDEFVAN4.40.50.461.1
AlvarezMIDCHI50.50.451.1
CampbellDEFCHI4.40.420.421
PolsterMIDCHI4.30.360.361
BadjiFWDCOL4.60.440.441
TchaniMIDCLB4.30.350.351
TrappMIDCLB40.360.361
WillisGKPHOU4.70.360.361
CabreraDEFMTL4.60.40.41
RogersDEFLA4.80.50.51
RoweMIDNE5.10.450.451
MullinsFWDNYC5.90.50.51
DavisMIDNY5.30.330.331
MuylMIDNY4.30.390.391
CollinDEFORL4.90.480.481
BlakeGKPPHI4.40.410.411
HerbersFWDPHI3.80.460.461
WondolowskiFWDSJ50.50.51
EspinozaMIDSKC4.30.470.471
MustivarMIDSKC40.360.361
OparaDEFSKC4.80.470.471
IrwinGKPTOR4.60.420.421
MoorDEFTOR5.10.470.471
OsorioMIDTOR4.70.370.371
WatsonDEFNE4.60.50.51
BirnbaumDEFDC4.70.460.50.9
HamidGKPDC4.80.40.450.9
WorraGKPDC4.50.460.540.9
UrrutiFWDDAL5.10.460.540.9
BeasleyDEFHOU4.80.480.520.9
ZardesFWDLA5.30.440.50.9
McNamaraMIDNYC4.70.440.480.9
MenaDEFNYC4.90.430.50.9
GrellaMIDNY4.70.410.480.9
RoblesGKPNY4.90.350.380.9
HiguitaMIDORL4.20.350.410.9
PontiusMIDPHI5.20.470.50.9
AdiFWDPOR4.70.470.50.9
CharaMIDPOR4.10.340.380.9
GleesonGKPPOR4.40.370.410.9
BinghamGKPSJ4.70.420.450.9
BeslerDEFSKC4.80.350.410.9
TecheraMIDVAN3.70.440.50.9
JohnsonGKPCHI4.10.320.410.8
MeiraDEFCHI40.360.480.8
WattsDEFCOL4.60.390.50.8
JimenezDEFCLB3.90.430.570.8
BarriosMIDDAL4.80.380.450.8
HollingsheadMIDDAL4.20.380.480.8
ClarkMIDHOU4.10.380.480.8
HorstDEFHOU4.30.440.560.8
SteresDEFLA4.50.330.430.8
Van DammeDEFLA4.40.330.440.8
TierneyDEFNE4.60.380.460.8
IraolaDEFNYC4.30.380.50.8
HinesDEFORL4.10.360.450.8
RamosDEFORL4.30.360.450.8
Le TouxMIDPHI4.50.430.520.8
PowellDEFPOR4.10.390.480.8
MovsisyanFWDRSL4.70.420.50.8
RimandoGKPRSL4.50.330.40.8
DempseyFWDSEA5.30.310.380.8
FreiGKPSEA4.50.360.450.8
OlumMIDSKC4.20.290.350.8
ZusiMIDSKC4.90.410.530.8
MannehFWDVAN5.30.450.550.8
CroninMIDCOL40.30.420.7
MillerDEFCOL3.80.350.520.7
FinlayMIDCLB4.90.380.580.7
FranklinDEFDC4.10.370.560.7
CastilloMIDDAL5.40.40.550.7
AnibabaDEFHOU3.90.380.520.7
BushGKPMTL4.10.330.480.7
OyongoDEFMTL4.20.420.580.7
SheltonFWDNYC5.10.420.580.7
CatoMIDSJ4.10.330.470.7
Perez GarciaMIDSJ4.30.320.420.7
MorrisFWDSEA4.80.410.560.7
RoldanMIDSEA4.50.310.450.7
Abdul-SalaamDEFSKC40.380.540.7
DwyerFWDSKC5.40.390.550.7
BeitashourDEFTOR4.10.410.590.7
MezquidaMIDVAN4.50.350.470.7
TribbettDEFPHI4.10.330.50.7
VincentDEFCHI3.50.330.580.6
K. KamaraFWDCLB50.370.60.6
ParkhurstDEFCLB3.90.350.620.6
BoswellDEFDC4.30.340.550.6
AcostaMIDDAL4.40.280.480.6
BarnesFWDHOU4.60.350.60.6
CamaraDEFMTL4.10.360.60.6
DonadelMIDMTL4.10.290.470.6
OduroFWDMTL4.50.380.620.6
OntiveroMIDMTL3.70.330.580.6
DeLaGarzaDEFLA4.10.350.570.6
LarentowiczMIDLA3.90.290.530.6
FagundezMIDNE4.80.360.560.6
FarrellDEFNE4.10.310.50.6
CerenMIDORL3.70.30.480.6
BorchersDEFPOR40.30.50.6
ValentinDEFPOR3.80.280.50.6
BeltranDEFRSL3.50.370.630.6
MulhollandMIDRSL4.30.390.610.6
WynneDEFSJ4.10.320.550.6
MearsDEFSEA3.70.350.550.6
DelgadoMIDTOR3.80.270.450.6
HamiltonFWDTOR3.80.360.640.6
OustedGKPVAN4.30.330.520.6
SmithDEFVAN3.40.360.570.6
SolignacFWDCOL3.70.330.670.5
FrancisDEFCLB3.50.310.620.5
WahlDEFCLB3.50.330.670.5
AcostaFWDDC4.50.320.60.5
GruezoMIDDAL3.60.190.420.5
ToiaDEFMTL40.290.570.5
BoatengFWDLA4.30.290.590.5
ColeDEFLA3.60.320.60.5
CaldwellMIDNE3.80.260.550.5
ShuttleworthGKPNE4.20.30.60.5
WoodberryDEFNE3.70.30.570.5
ZizzoDEFNY3.90.330.670.5
BendikGKPORL40.260.560.5
CarrascoMIDORL3.90.230.450.5
SheaDEFORL3.10.320.640.5
BeckermanMIDRSL3.80.270.50.5
MaundDEFRSL3.60.320.580.5
MeliaGKPSKC4.20.30.590.5
IgboananikeFWDCHI40.30.70.4
K DoyleFWDCOL40.250.630.4
UlloaMIDDAL3.70.190.440.4
AlexanderMIDMTL3.60.130.330.4
ShippMIDMTL3.40.30.70.4
GoncalvesDEFNE3.50.290.710.4
KnightonGKPNE3.50.230.540.4
JacobsonMIDVAN3.70.210.470.4
LawrenceDEFNY3.40.250.70.4
AlbergMIDPHI4.80.310.690.4
FabinhoDEFPHI4.30.290.710.4
RosenberryDEFPHI3.70.260.650.4
SapongFWDPHI4.10.250.610.4
MelanoFWDPOR3.90.270.620.4
SunnyMIDRSL3.60.230.540.4
AmarikwaFWDSJ3.80.250.70.4
JonesDEFSEA3.80.280.620.4
PetersonMIDSKC4.20.280.670.4
ZavaletaDEFTOR3.90.290.640.4
HurtadoMIDVAN3.70.310.690.4
ParkerDEFVAN3.50.250.610.4
EndohMIDTOR3.80.270.670.4
HarringtonDEFCHI2.70.210.790.3
KappelhofDEFCHI3.50.230.650.3
JeffreyMIDDC3.40.140.50.3
AkindeleFWDDAL4.10.210.710.3
BruinFWDHOU3.80.220.780.3
S WilliamsDEFHOU2.90.250.750.3
WengerMIDHOU40.220.650.3
MateosDEFORL3.30.20.750.3
CarrollMIDPHI3.20.180.680.3
RidgewellDEFPOR3.70.230.680.3
J TaylorDEFPOR3.80.190.570.3
FrancisDEFSJ30.180.710.3
HalliseyMIDSKC3.10.170.670.3
HarveyDEFVAN3.80.250.710.3
DeLeonMIDDC3.30.150.630.2
VincentMIDDC3.30.150.620.2
BunburyMIDNE3.10.160.740.2
AlstonDEFORL2.40.140.820.2
NocerinoMIDORL2.70.170.720.2
ReddingDEFORL2.50.130.730.2
MarquezDEFPHI3.50.180.760.2
ZemanskiMIDPOR3.30.090.550.2
AlasheMIDSJ3.40.150.620.2
MattocksFWDPOR3.40.180.730.2
IlsinhoMIDPHI3.70.140.640.2
BernierMIDMTL2.70.070.860.1
WingertDEFRSL2.10.050.890.1
SarkodieDEFSJ30.080.830.1
BernardelloMIDMTL3.30.090.820.1
WarnerMIDHOU3.100.570

Alonso comes in first place and it isn’t close. He had just one game where he hurt you last year. His ceiling isn’t high, but his floor is stellar. Lodeiro and Giovinco come in second and third. They have both great ceilings and great floors and were absolutely worthy of being picked first and second. You’ll notice there’s a lot of defensive midfielders with positive ratios. They are criminally undervalued in draft. There’s several sitting on waver wires in my leagues that I would happily own.

Trading up

There’s not a lot of forwards with good help/hurt ratios, so we can be more lenient with forwards who have bad help/hurt ratios. However, we can be more choosey with midfielders. Any midfielder with a ratio less than 1 should be traded. Guys like Pontius, Barrios, and Finlay should be shopped because their perceived value is much higher than their actual value. Try to package them with your best forward for Giovinco/Villa/dos Santos and their worst mid. Their worst mid might be someone like Sarvas or Powers, who are upgrades for you to begin with. Even if their worst mid is a complete dud, chances are you can grab a good one off the wire anyway.

About Andrew Crollard

Andrew has worked as both an economist/data analyst and as a university and youth soccer coach. Naturally, marrying soccer and data together is a perfect fit.

Check Also

2017 Round 30 Captain Options and Poll

It’s captain poll time for Round 30! Don’t forget, the transfer deadline is, Wednesday the 26th at …

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *