Behind the Numbers: MLS Fantasy Week 19

Behind the Numbers

Week 18 Review

Week 18 left a lot to be desired for the Behind the Number Team. I didn’t do a good job picking the team or managing the team and it hurt. On a week where people were sniffing 200, the BTN just barely scraped a 162 (saved by Vela (C))

Blessing and Gregus getting rotated were on teams who scored tons of goals, but the fact that they were rotated really hurt. Probably I should have seen it coming with USOC coming up this week. This is why we love and hate the game.

The real downer this week was VAN deciding to unhelpfully sub in Bair ($4.0) for 1 point and screwing up my autoroo and costing me 10 points. So much sadness.

This week dropped our OR to 271, but we still added $2.6, which is actually below average but we’re still riding our strong first weeks to a respectable TV of 108.4

For Week 19, be sure to keep an eye on USOC/Canadian Championship rosters on Wednesday for Montreal, Atlanta, Orlando, NYCFC, Minnesota, Vancouver, LAFC, and Portland.

Week 18 Team Value Recap

  • Results of Twitter/Reddit Poll
    • Average Points Scored: 172
    • Average Team Value Gained: $3.1M
    • Average Current Team Value: $107.3M

Week 18 TRUE Dream Team

Here are the rules.

  • only three players per team
  • must be a valid formation
  • must fit in the average budget for that week
  • ties are broken with lowest value player making the team
  • the bench is all 4.0 scrubs

So here’s the Week 18 TRUE Dream Team

Week 19 Team Defense Rankings

Total Budget this Week: Average Budget: $107.3, BTN Budget: $108.4

Goalkeepers

The Player Pool

Must Haves

  • None

Top Options

  • Rowe – ORL – $5.8
  • Mannone – MIN – $5.5
  • Kronholm – CHI -$4.9

Price Rise Targets

  • Rimando – RSL – $6.2
  • Rowe – ORL – $5.8
  • Clark – POR – $6.0

Value Lottery Tickets

  • Kronholm – CHI – $4.9
  • Bush – MTL – $5.0
  • Robles – NYRB – $5.6

Notes

There are a lot of cheap options with good matchups early in the slate, but finding a cheap option for the back end of the Keeperoo looks like a challenge. Here’s hoping that opening keeper hits to save some money!

Defenders

The Player Pool

Must Haves

  • None

Top Options

  • Calvo – CHI – $6.5
  • Opara – MIN – $7.5
  • Sane – ORL – $6.4

Price Rise Targets

  • Opara – MIN – $7.5
  • Herrera – RSL – $6.1
  • Moreira – POR – $6.5

Value Lottery Tickets

  • Murillo – NYRB – $6.0
  • Beitashour – LAFC – $5.8
  • Segura – LAFC – $6.2
  • Schweinsteiger – CHI – $5.8
  • Boxall – MIN – $5.9

Notes

CHI and ORL have crazy high CS % this week. Honestly, their xG numbers are pretty good and CLB, in particular, is real real bad at offense. Opara could be hard to fit in, but he’s probably worth it for BPs and price rise likelihood. Boxall is a good alternative. Finding cheap options ahead of time looks to be a challenge this week, so watch those lineups to try to grab some value.

Week 19 Team Offense Rankings

Week 19 Top 50 Player Projections

Note: Player projections extrapolate previous stats and matchup data for the current player and match up assuming that player plays the full 90 (SGW) or 180 (DGW). It does not factor in the probability of a player starting or being rotated during a DGW.

Midfielders

The Player Pool

Must Haves

  • None

Top Options

  • Valeri – POR – $11.6
  • Gaitan – CHI – $9.6
  • Nani – ORL – $9.5
  • Atuesta/Kaye – LAFC – 10.9/10.5

Price Rise Targets

  • Ethan Finlay – MIN – $7.5
  • Nicolas Gaitan – CHI – $9.6
  • Diego Valeri – POR – $11.6

Value Lottery Tickets

  • Mueller – ORL – $6.9
  • Moreno – DC – $6.4
  • Frankowski – CHI – $6.6
  • Finlay – MIN – $7.5

Notes

Honestly, I’m kind of surprised at how thin the midfield options are this week. There are some options I really like in Valeri and Nani, but then it gets pretty thin. Surprisingly as I dug into the data, Ethan Finlay has really been on a tear and is quite affordable. If I can avoid the Keeperoo, may try to funnel some money into the midfield.

Forwards

The Player Pool

Must Haves

  • None

Top Options

  • Vela – LAFC – $12
  • Sapong – CHI – $7.3
  • Zlatan – LAG – $10.3
  • Fernandez – POR – $10.9
  • Rooney – DCU – $10

Price Rise Targets

  • Przybylko – PHI – $8
  • Castellanos – NYC – $8
  • Rubio – COL – $7.8
  • Rossi – LAFC – $10.5

Value Lottery Tickets

  • White – NYRB – $6.7
  • Dwyer – ORL – $8.0
  • Ebobisse – POR – $5.7
  • Wondo – SJE  – $7.1

Notes

Typically I’m not a fan of forwards because of their low bonus point potential, but that’s really where you can find the top options this week. The key value guy this week has to be Sapong (or Nicolic) I’d prefer to keep him in an autoroo, but many have to drop him in the starting lineup.

2019 Week 19 Behind the Numbers Team

Here’s my first draft of the Behind the Numbers Team based on the discussion above.

If you’d like to follow me on twitter, I’m @MLSFB_BTN. I typically post my updated lineup before the games start to show if my thinking has changed since this column went up.’

Resources for nerding out about MLS Fantasy

  • http://www.mlscheatsheet.com/ — Bonus point data, projections and more
  • https://www.americansocceranalysis.com/asa-xgoals — Interactive xG and passing data
  • https://www.whoscored.com/ — Analytics based player ratings

About Kyle Mcelhinny

Scientist by day, soccer fan by night. Nerd always. Using stats to overcome my lack of knowledge about the beautiful game.

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