Stats Summary: 2018 Price Change Matrix v1

Week 1 is in the books (we think) after a couple… hiccups. I waded through the price changes and scores to get a best guess at how prices change this year. I don’t have an exact equation for it yet, but I created a best-guess matrix to help you project price changes while selecting your squad. We will have to wait another week to see how the inter-step prices change. That should also give us more data to come up with the actual equation for price changes.

This first matrix shows observed changes. I simply plugged in the price changes for each score and price intersection. Note that players who subbed out experienced some wonky price changes. I believe this is because of the bad code for clean sheets that was pushed at the time price changes were calculated.

This second matrix shows my best guess at filling in the holes. There are likely some +-.1 errors, but it should be close. Note that there is a potential 4.0 price floor. Blackmon for LAFC scored 1 point and started priced at $4 but did not experience a price drop and we have not concluded why. Bwana for Seattle also scored 1 point at $4, but he was part of the clean sheet miscalculation.

Price strategy

Now that we have a (rough) idea of how prices work, we know that cheaper players will rise in price easier than expensive players. Defenders in particular present good value early in the season and I will be playing with 5 defenders to attempt to catch some prices rises for the first couple weeks so I can afford to grab a team full of the big guns after week 5.

About Andrew Crollard

Andrew has worked as both an economist/data analyst and as a university and youth soccer coach. Naturally, marrying soccer and data together is a perfect fit.

Check Also

2018 Semis Leg 2 Predictions and Power Rankings

The following predictions are based on the ELO ranking system. This system was first used …

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *