2017 Round 25 Expected Player Offensive Points

Round 25 Expected Player Offensive Points

Every week, I’ll be publishing a list of top players ranked by expected offensive points. “Offensive points” includes expected shots, goals, assists, and key passes based on the weekly matchup(s) and past performance. It also includes the 2 points the player would receive for playing 60+ minutes. Sadly, offensive bonus points (except key passes) are not included at this time. Defensive bonus points are also not currently included because of the limitations of the data set.

Want to know more about how this model works? Click here to read the inaugural article in this series, along with an explanation of the model’s basic premise.

Round 25 Expected Player Offensive Points

FirstLastTeamMinShtp96xGp96KPp96xAp96xOffPt
JoaoPlataRSL17243.950.552.950.2817.7
SebastianGiovincoTOR16425.610.481.640.1814.5
ClintDempseySEA16354.290.581.820.1714.2
JozyAltidoreTOR16842.740.511.480.1513.0
JeffersonSavarinoRSL11323.220.272.040.2412.9
OlaKamaraCLB21692.830.510.890.1312.9
YuraMovsisyanRSL13822.850.460.830.1212.9
FanendoAdiPOR20003.310.561.20.0912.7
RomainAlessandriniLA18293.620.32.680.3112.4
FredyMonteroVAN17583.490.571.20.1112.4
DiegoValeriPOR21372.830.362.110.2512.3
MauroManotasHOU16343.530.591.760.1812.1
ErickTorresHOU16403.280.651.580.1212.0
SebastianSaucedoRSL5473.510.231.580.2112.0
AlbertRusnakRSL18722.620.172.970.2211.9
FedericoHiguainCLB16142.380.272.440.2211.9
JustinMeramCLB19992.310.321.870.1911.8
PatrickMullinsDC4993.080.370.770.0911.6
VictorVazquezTOR16941.470.23.290.2911.5
WillBruinSEA12502.840.4810.111.4
AlberthElisHOU11223.420.481.20.2411.2
JosefMartinezATL6284.890.760.460.0211.1
LuisSilvaRSL12502.690.31.150.1111.0
CristianColmanDAL8303.350.480.460.0910.9
LucianoAcostaDC16751.950.212.060.1810.9
MaximilianoUrrutiDAL18613.770.371.130.1310.8
Giovanidos SantosLA14662.290.351.770.1610.6
C.J.SapongPHI20552.010.461.070.1310.6
ChristianBolanosVAN13262.030.212.680.2810.5
MichaelBarriosDAL16822.340.222.280.2610.4
CristianTecheraVAN16582.660.281.910.1910.3
NicolasLodeiroSEA21671.990.162.480.2910.3
RolandAlbergPHI7162.680.490.670.0410.3
RolandLamahDAL15221.960.351.580.1610.2
DeshornBrownDC5422.830.350.350.0210.2
NikoHansenCLB4481.50.221.070.2410.1
JoseGuillermo OrtizDC7112.840.270.810.0610.0
LamarNeagleDC12182.050.310.790.059.9
TosaintRickettsTOR6812.540.370.70.039.9
PatrickNyarkoDC10711.610.171.520.189.8
NemanjaNikolicCHI20933.620.650.640.069.6
DavidAccamCHI15452.670.442.050.269.6
RomellQuiotoHOU8322.420.281.270.279.5
BrooksLennonRSL11670.820.062.220.279.4
JahmirHykaSJ16162.020.242.610.279.3
JordanMorrisSEA15511.670.261.110.169.3
LloydSamDC15891.150.092.240.199.2
FabianHerbersPHI4331.770.181.770.249.1
DavidGuzmanPOR15821.820.112.180.219.0
SebastianBlancoPOR20962.560.151.830.149.0
DannyHoesenSJ13223.20.331.310.149.0
TeshoAkindeleDAL11041.040.192.090.219.0
EthanFinlayCLB13481.50.2210.118.9
MarcusEppsPHI4142.780.290.930.078.9
KekutaMannehCLB8312.190.181.270.088.8
DaironAsprillaPOR11422.190.171.260.158.8
MarcoUrenaSJ14182.30.261.350.238.7
ChrisWondolowskiSJ22392.190.31.290.178.6
MiguelAlmironATL19232.90.261.70.218.6
NicolasMezquidaVAN5501.750.12.090.218.5
KellynAcostaDAL13112.560.171.460.128.5
TommyThompsonSJ10952.980.181.490.228.4
Min = total minutes played Shtp96 = shots per 96 minutes xGp96 = expected goals per 96 minutes KPp96 = key passes per 96 minutes xAp96 = expected assists per 96 minutes xOffPt = total expected offensive points

Analysis

Two home games for RSL means Joao Plata tops this list; add in his respectable 1.1 BPp96 and his $9.6 price, and you’ve got a high-potential starter.  If you’re looking for budget forwards, Houston’s Mauro Manotas ($8.1) may be the man for you; his xPt and BP production per 96 is better than the fan-favorite Torres ($8.5), despite playing approximately the same number of minutes.

Players on this list who have excellent bonus point production and who should be considered higher floor options this week (given they start both games, of course!):

  • Romain Alessandrini: 1.7 BPp96 (bonus points per 96 minutes)
  • Victor Vazquez: 1.8 BPp96
  • Nicholas Lodeiro: 1.9 BPp96

For more fantasy data and insights every round, follow @MLSFantasyStats on Twitter.

Source data behind the calculations come from American Soccer Analysis.

About Ryan Anderson

Ryan started out in fantasy football in 2015 and decided to take his analytical abilities to the MLS world in 2017. He is the founder of MLS Fantasy Stats, producing the first and only analytics-based weekly player projections in MLS Fantasy community. He is pursuing a master's degree in business analytics, and he lives with his lovely wife in St. Anthony, MN.

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  1. Hi MLS Fantasy Boss,

    I saw you tweeting about games and I thought I’d check out your website. I really like it. Looks like MLS Fantasy Boss has come a long way!

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