Stats Summary – Week 8: True DGW Value

Stats Summary - Week 8: True DGW Value

The dreaded double game week rotation struck again in week 8. We all know that we can’t always count a DGW player by simply doubling their expected output because there’s a good chance they’ll get rested.

About 30% of starters are rotated in a DGW. During a regular game week, it is about 12.5% of players who get rotated. So DGW players are more than twice as likely to not start a game when they’re on a double than when they’re on a single. Even players who don’t get rotated during a DGW score about 5% lower PP90 on a DGW than on a single game week.

After some math, we can come to the conclusion that the average DGW player who starts at least one game scores about 1.5 times more than their SGW counterpart. This accounts for the “fatigue” penalty as well as the increased likelihood that they’ll be rested or subbed out early. This definitely reflects in our round scores as well. Just using the managers in the MLSFI podcast host league, we score about 1.33 times more total points in a DGW than in a SGW.

Random Observations:

Piatti scored almost 1 full PPG less without Drogba than with Drogba last season. Drogba isn’t the problem – it’s Donadel taking all the set pieces.

Vancouver are averaging an abysmal 1 goal from open play every 450 minutes. Next closest is Chicago with 1 every 210 minutes.

Orlando has the highest percentage of shots from inside the box with 73%. League average is 59%. Toronto is lowest with 44%.

About Andrew Crollard

Andrew has worked as both an economist/data analyst and as a university and youth soccer coach. Naturally, marrying soccer and data together is a perfect fit.

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