MLS Fantasy Boss A Fantasy MLS Community
By: The Fantasy Physician
Time for your scheduled follow-up!
Back in Round 6, we introduced the idea that players in FMLS have a floor – a base score made up mostly of bonus points– and a ceiling – i.e. a capacity to reach a higher score if the right things happen: clean sheets, assists, and goals. Nothing is certain about players’ floors and ceilings, and each week we ask, “Who has high floors and/or ceilings and what makes us think they will hit them?”
What Determines Floors and Ceilings in the Coming Week?
There are a lot of answers to these questions, but I would like to emphasize three: player-state, team-state, and game-state. Luck itself is a big fourth factor, but the season is a long one and that luck will even out over time; there’s not too much more to say about that. Let’s look at examples in the other categories:
Player-state:
Last week, two of this season’s highest scorers – Evander of Cincinnati and Albert Rusnak of Seattle – returned from injury. These are both players that have emerged as FMLS captain candidates in certain weeks because their native abilities give them high floors and ceilings, and they play on good teams. Going into the week, alert FMLS managers learned that they would both be available for selection when these players were removed from injured status on the weekly MLS Player Availability Report. Most managers were unsure how fit they were. Evander came roaring back from injury, logging 15 points on the strength of a brace–he hit both his floor (5 points from playing over 60 minutes plus 3 bonus points) and his ceiling (with the two goals). Rusnak played 28 minutes in substitute appearance and returned 1 point; he hit neither floor nor ceiling. They are both great players, but they were in different places in their recovery from injury. Philadelphia defender Kai Wagner’s wife had a baby before last week’s fixture; some managers wondered if he would be tired from caring for a newborn, but he looked well rested and registered 8 fantasy points. Messi’s legs after another CONCACAF midweek game, Marco Reus and Oliver Giroud’s legs after long careers are also examples of critical player state issues.
Player position within their teams matters a lot for assessing ceilings and floors. St. Louis’ Eduard Louwen was a frequently selected midfielder in 2024, but after the arrival of Marcel Hartel later in the season, he moved from an attacking midfield position to a more defensive one, and his FMLS ceiling dropped. Prior to each year, the administrators of FMLS assign positions to each player in the game, and these do not change, even if their real-life coaches move them around the field. Defenders who end up assigned to attacking rolls – playing out of position (OOP) – give players higher ceilings because they can earn bonus points from attacking roles, find themselves in good positions to make goal contributions, and may still earn the five-point bonus for clean sheets, even if they barely contributed to that defense. The most prominent examples of out-of-position defenders in 2025 are Luca Orellano (CIN), Dante Sealy (MTL), Ali Ahmed (VAN), and Jake Davis (SKC). Another player who has benefited from playing out of position is Onni Valakari (SDFC). Normally an 8 with a lower ceiling, he has been playing as a false 9 since striker Marcus Ingvartsen’s injury, and has seen his ceiling increase dramatically.
Team-State:
Gabriel Pec, the LA Galaxy forward and 2024 MLS Newcomer of the Year, was a darling of successful FMLS managers last year. But beyond his own ability, he benefited from playing on a team with a blistering attack and the service from one of the best playmakers in MLS, Riqui Puig. Thus far, the Galaxy have had an anemic offense without Puig, who is recovering from an ACL injury, and Pec’s FMLS numbers have suffered as a result. Starved of service, he has oscillated between low-scoring games and a few matches, including last week’s, in which he creates a floor of sorts by forcing a large number of low probability shots. He gets bonus points for these and so may be creating a floor, but is this sustainable? Players on bad teams present a certain risk; coaches need to make changes because their teams are doing poorly so that may undermine current patterns. Similarly, Lucho Acosta and Hany Mukhtar are recent MLS MVPs who have seen their FMLS returns fluctuate wildly based on the quality of the teams around them. Diego Rossi of Columbus has been a high ceiling attacker; the arrival of Daniel Gazdag to Columbus raises interesting questions: will the presence of a new attacking partner increase Rossi’s ceiling? Will Gazdag’s skill at penalty taking mean that Rossi will no longer take them? The net effect could impact Rossi’s ceiling.
Game-State:
Houston Dynamo midfielder Jack McGlynn presents an interesting case-study on the effect of game state on player returns, as understood through floors and ceilings. McGlynn was a peripheral FMLS player in 2024 while in Philadelphia, but his trade to Houston in 2025 put him in a central position and focal point on his new team. Important aside: players that matter a lot to their teams make better FMLS players because they are less likely to be subbed off and figure centrally in their team’s tactics. In a number of games, Jack McGlynn established himself as having a very high floor built on bonus points from completed passes, key plays (passes with potential to become assists or secondary assists) and successful crosses. Houston, under coach Ben Olson, has emphasized a possession style, and careful examination of McGlynn’s fantasy returns show a strong positive correlation between Houston’s possession percentage and his fantasy points (see the graph below). That said, Houston is a mediocre attacking team, such that when they play teams who also want to possess the ball–ex: Columbus, Miami, LA Galaxy–their possession percentage drops and McGlynn’s floor turns to quicksand. Another feature of his, and many other players’, scores is that their floors and ceilings are positively correlated. More passes that might become assists (key passes/plays) means a higher likelihood of them becoming actual assists. Shots become goals, and so many managers love players who shoot a lot. An interesting counter example may be goalkeepers and shots-saved. Goalkeepers on teams that give up a lot of shots may have a higher floor from these bonuses but that same tendency decreases the chance of earning the 5 points for a clean sheet. McGlynn is a high floor player when Houston plays teams that prefer to play against the ball, and this week’s opponent Austin, is relatively likely to let Houston have a lot of the ball. That seems clear. The question for McGlynn is his ceiling. The attackers surrounding him–notably designated player Ezequiel Ponce–have had limited success and Austin’s solid defense may limit McGlynn’s upside. The high floor still makes him an attractive candidate this week.
Of course, the basics of assessing matchups – the subject of the Fantasy Therapist’s week 7 article – is really about game state.
To repeat, player state, team state, game state, and luck determine whether players will hit their floors and ceilings.
High floor, high ceiling to players for Game Week 10:
L Messi (FWD, MIA), D Bouanga (FWD, LAFC), Evander (MID, CIN), K Wagner (DEF, PHI) L. Orellano (DEF, CIN), Sam Surridge (FWD, NSH), Diego Rossi (FWD, CLB)
Low floor high ceiling players for game week 10
Daniel Gazdag (MID, CLB), Tai Baribo (FWD, PHI), K Denkey (FWD, CIN), F. Mora (FWD, POR), J. Alba (DEF, MIA).
*Reminder: players with this floor-ceiling profile–also known as high-variance or “Boom-Bust” are best put on the bench.
High floor, low ceiling players for game week 10
Jack McGlynn (MID, HOU). High usage defenders such as Adilson Malanda (DEF, CLT), Paddy McNair (DEF, SDFC), Aaron Long (DEF, LAFC).
*Pro-tip: Passing center backs or center backs in teams that play 3-in-the-back or 5-in-the back defenses tend to lead their teams in bonus points among defenders. But getting those bonus points is often game state dependent.
Low floor and low ceiling players for game week 10
We take players like this because we have to: all goalkeepers and cheap defenders on good defenses selected to help meet budget constraints. Example: Nick Scardina (DEF, Charlotte).
At the Fantasy Strategy Clinic we stress prevention. So watch out for rickety floors, and don’t let low ceilings split your head open in Week 10!
The “Fantasy Physician” is Ron Birnbaum, @Half Century City on Discord
The “Fantasy Therapist” is Mike Leister, @Kenobi on Discord
