MLS Fantasy Boss A Fantasy MLS Community
By: The Fantasy Therapist
Welcome back to Part 2 of our guide to building a double-game week (or DGW) team. In Part 1, I discussed how scores are counted in a DGW, targeting matchups, and managing rotation. In this installment, I’ll cover how to approach picking players at the different positions, how to account for the dreaded yellow card watch, and the formation which will allow you the best chance to maximize your points, as well as a short note on how rivalry matches can affect fantasy scores.
Position-specific DGW tips
One of the more interesting aspects of a DGW is that because you’re getting a combined score from two games, players who may not normally be attractive fantasy assets in a single-game week can become more viable. Players with a high floor and low ceiling are more valuable in this scenario, especially if they’re a low rotation risk. This usually applies to center backs and midfielders outside of the usual crop of playmakers and wingers.
Goalkeeper – In a SGW, managers often default to the best two options for a keeperoo – bench an early keeper, and if they bust, swap to a late keeper as your starter – which is sound strategy to get three tries at a CS. However, in a DGW, you have a choice to make. If you choose to keeperoo, do you give up on your bench keeper after only one game and swap to a late keeper? There are different schools of thought on this, but since FMLS instituted scoring changes last year, I find that I’m comfortable letting my bench keeper play both games, since you’re basically just hunting clean sheets with GKs. In case my bench keeper gets a red card or is on the wrong end of a blowout in the first match of the week, I always have a DGW backup selected just in case. The downside of this strategy is, if I wait to see both scores from my bench keeper, my only fallback option is a single game keeper who may not have the best CS chance. I feel OK gambling on that, since two combined scores from a DGW keeper are usually acceptable. For GW13, let’s use Matt Freese from NYCFC as an example. NYC plays their second game early on the weekend (4:30 ET), so you could easily see both of his scores before any of the SGW keepers play later on Saturday night (7:30 and 8:30 ET). If you’re not happy with his combined score over two games, start one of the SGW keepers and leave Freese on the bench.
- Defenders – As I said earlier, center backs tend to be more viable in DGWs because they are much less likely to be rotated or subbed out early. They are also more likely to pick up passing BPs – 1 or 2 extra points can make a big difference over two games. Pay attention to certain teams who do like to rotate defenders during DGWs – I highlighted RSL, Houston and Vancouver last week, and Columbus also like to use their depth on the defensive end.
- Midfielders – Here is where some guys outside of the usual suspects can be useful. For instance, some of the boom-bust mids with the high ceilings may be more of a rotation risk, so one decision for you to make is, would you rather have one potentially big game plus limited minutes in the second from a #10 or winger, or are two scores of 6-7 points from a #8 or a #6 (Pavel Bucha or Jeppe Tverskov, for instance) who’s going to play all 180 minutes more attractive to you? Attack is where your biggest scores will likely come from if your players hit their ceilings, so it depends on how much reward you’re willing to go after. DGWs are also one of the few times I will consider stacking two midfielders from the same team if they have two attractive matches.
- Forwards – This is the position where I like to take my big swings, so I will often bench one or two boom-bust forwards (such as Sam Surridge, who typically either gets 4 points or double digits) in the hopes that they hit their ceilings. For this reason, I like to run a specific type of formation in DGWs to accommodate boom-bust players.
Formation
For DGWs, I (and many other managers) prefer to use a 5-at-the-back formation (either a 5-3-2 or a 5-4-1 depending on whether I feel more strongly about my mids or fwds). With this formation, you’re accepting whatever scores you get from the three defenders you start, but this allows you to put most of your resources toward your attackers and take the best two scores from the three field players on your bench. I also try to put earlier players on the bench so that I can scrub an additional player if all three field players on my bench hit. Some managers will even insert a SGW player into their lineup for this reason, but I don’t like to do that since I feel like it limits my maximum points.
Yellow Card Watch
There are two other important items to note that take on more importance in a DGW. The first is yellow card watch. There’s always a lot of discussion and stress in the MLSFB Discord over players who are on yellow card watch, and for good reason – if you choose a player who is one yellow card away from suspension (“on watch”) and they get a yellow card in the first game of the week, they’ll miss the second game through suspension. For this reason, some managers will bench players on YCW and some will avoid them entirely. It is a gamble – there have been several notable cases over the past few years of a player on watch getting a yellow right at the end of the first game (Evander’s 92’ yellow from last year still stings) – but in most cases, players are aware they’re on watch and adjust their game accordingly.
Chalk
One last consideration is the role chalk plays in a DGW. Chalk refers to players with high-ownership in a specific week who appear in most teams. In DGWs, chalk becomes more important. Because overall team scores in a DGW will be higher due to most players getting combined scores from two games, there is a lot of opportunity for separation from the pack in overall rank (OR) in one direction or another. Differentials can make a big impact, but deviating from chalk too much becomes a higher risk in a DGW. This is especially true for your captain. Going with a differential cap can be a huge win or loss, depending on how they do. Speaking from personal experience, having a differential captain miss on a DGW when the chalk captain hits can pretty much tank your season, and it doesn’t feel great. On the other hand, having your cap hit when most others have theirs blank can be a great way to make big gains in OR. Again, it’s all about how much risk you’re willing to handle.
SPECIAL NOTE – Rivalries
A fun aspect of this DGW is that the weekend games are part of Rivalry Week – we’ve got a Hudson River Derby, Hell is Real and a Cascadia clash between Portland and Seattle on tap, among others. This is one more factor to take into account when picking your team, because rivalry matches can have an effect on fantasy scores. MLS managers as a whole tend to go for it more in a rivalry match, meaning these games rarely end in a clean sheet for either side. One of my personal FMLS rules is to never pick GKs or defenders in a rivalry match unless the defender is heavily involved in the attack and has a good shot at a goal contribution (Kai Wagner, Luca Orellano or Ali Ahmed would all fall in this category). On the other hand, attackers in these matches become more appealing because the games can frequently become shootouts.
How Does this Apply for Week 13?
This is a lot of information, so don’t try to follow it all right away – pick and choose what works for you. Follow your own process as much as you can, listen to your gut, and don’t overthink it too much. As I mentioned last week, it’s hard to go wrong with defenders against weak attacks and attackers against weak defenses. Good luck in this first of many DGWs, check back for more tips next week, and don’t forget to have fun!
The “Fantasy Physician” is Ron Birnbaum, @Half Century City on Discord
The “Fantasy Therapist” is Mike Leister, @Kenobi on Discord
