MLS Fantasy Boss A Fantasy MLS Community
By: The Fantasy Physician
Picking defenders and goalkeepers just feels “hit-or-miss” or maybe more accurately “miss-and-only-sometimes-hit.” In our last round – our first big double-game week – I deployed a keeperoo , going from Andrew Rick of Philadelphia to CJ Dos Santos of San Diego FC. That started poorly, when the hapless Galaxy struck twice early on Philadelphia but ended better with San Diego collecting clean sheets in both games and Dos Santos stopping a penalty in the first game, earning 5 extra point and a total of 20. I played with a five-in-the-back defender formation (sound strategy for most DGWs) with 2 scrubs from Dallas and Kai Wagner of Philadelphia, Andy Najar of Nashville, and Dante Sealy of Montreal, respectively earning a 12, 3, and 2 total over the two games. Not good. Your reaction may rightfully be “Physician, heal thyself before you give me strategy advice on defense.” All this is to say that picking defenders and goalkeepers remains challenging in 2025 and comes with frequent frustration.
The Hunt for Clean Sheets and the Three-in-the-Back Formation
If we remind ourselves that defensive returns mostly come from 1) clean sheets 2) bonus points, and 3) goal contributions, and then realize that bonus points are few and goal contributions from defenders and goalkeepers are mostly rare, many high-flying managers focus on predicting clean sheets in their decision-making. That view remains popular among strong players and usually has them playing a three-in-the-back (3-ATB) formation with two defenders on the bench. Those managers look for an early clean sheet or two, and if those fail, they switcheroo into defenders on teams that play late. Such managers often stack defenders and goalkeepers, ie taking two or even three from the teams they favor for clean sheets.
But just how good are even expert players at calling clean sheets? The answer is “so-so.”
Looking at data from 22 accomplished managers (based on their place in the table in 2025, their history of placing at the very top, or their active participation in producing FMLS content) over the first 12 game weeks of this season, these managers take defenders and keepers who scored clean sheets 41.5% of the time (558 clean sheets out of 1343 attempted). The range was 32.4% to 51.9% which is to say somewhere between 1 in 3 to 1 in 2 calls successful, with most clustered around 2 in 5. A similar study I did in 2024 showed 40.0% accuracy, emphasizing that over time even the best managers call clean sheets roughly 2 in 5 times.
How does that compare to just guessing? Or is that just guessing? In 2025 through the first 12 game weeks, MLS teams kept 102 out of 358 clean sheets or 28.5%. However, broken down by home and away teams, home teams kept 61 out of 179 clean sheets, 34.1%, and away teams 41 out of 179 clean sheets, 22.9%. That underscores the considerable advantage (about 50% more clean sheets) in taking home defenders and goalkeepers. Is the 41.5% clean-sheet-calling rate actually much better than just throwing a dart at a dartboard with that week’s home teams on it and collecting the 34.1%? Statistically, the answer is “yes.” FMLS managers do show some skill in calling clean sheets beyond just taking good players from randomly selected home teams. But the overall impact of that skill is relatively modest on final scores. The additional 7.4% (an extra 20% or so of successful calls) is very unlikely to be due to chance (P value for the statistically oriented is less than 0.000000008 as determined by the chi-square test). Viewed from the standpoint of “number-needed-to-treat” analysis, the skill of good managers at calling clean sheets will earn them one additional clean-sheet call about every 3rd game (somewhere between 13 and 14 calls). It is not futile to “chase clean sheets” but its modest benefits do have to be weighed against certain costs.
“Forget about clean sheets!” – The Five-in-the-Back Autoroo
What are those costs? First, in order to maximize chances of clean sheet returns, managers use two of their three bench slots for defenders. This creates the hidden cost of accepting some bad attacker (midfielder or forward) scores because the selected attacker had to be on the field. Second, if managers like their clean sheet ideas, they tend to stack defenders with goalkeepers. Teams may have a top defender, but if the manager wants a “triple stack” of either a goalkeeper plus two defenders or in some cases three defenders, they begin to accept defenders with lower bonus point potential, lower attacking potential, or a higher chance of early substitution within MLS matches. In gameweeks in which the initial clean sheet or clean sheets do not hit, managers may end up paying for 6 or even 7 defenders and goalkeepers, diverting budget resources from attackers who on the whole have higher floors and ceilings. Finally, taking a lot of defenders and goalkeepers from teams that do not get clean sheets can erode total team budget growth, affecting resources for future gameweeks.
Managers who deem those costs too big for the potential benefits, will take a different approach, taking 1 or 2 goalkeepers and the minimum three defenders, emphasizing players at home with higher bonus point potential and occasional attacking returns, and playing all three on the field (with two defensive scrubs) and 3 attackers on the bench. I tend towards this approach but try not to do so dogmatically. In a future article, we will consider which defenders have potential for bonus points (few goalkeepers do and unfortunately, not too many defenders do either). I like taking defenders who are playing at home and consistently earn two or more bonus points. Considering that clean sheets give five bonus points and good managers call clean sheets 2 in 5 times, a player that earns two bonus points in nearly every game may be thought to have “a clean sheet built into them.”
As you can see, FMLS managers’ opinions about clean sheets and all these issues are the prime determinant of the formation they deploy.
The Middle Way – Four-in-the-Back with a Defender on the Bench
Of course, there is a middle Goldilocks way: managers can play with a defender on the bench and four on the field, usually with one scrub. At least one of the field defenders should play in a late game if the intent is to scrub him if the bench defender, usually from an early match, hits. I tend to use this approach with high risk, high reward defenders which I am taking for attacking potential from teams with a favorable attacking matchup. Those defenders go on the bench.
Picking Defensive Players in Week 14
Keeperoo: Pick Stefan Frei of Seattle or CJ Dos Santos of San Diego FC and then pivot to Dayne St. Clair of Minnesota United if the initial clean sheet fails.
Paddy McNair and/or Christopher McVey from San Diego have both a favorable matchup against the winless LA Galaxy and their team’s high possession style generally nets them two bonus points. San Diego shut out LA Galaxy in the Galaxy’s home opener, and San Diego’s defense has been very strong at home. The less expensive San Diego outside backs often rotate and may see less than 90 minutes on the pitch, but may present tight budget options.
Alex Roldan of Seattle remains the highest bonus point earner among defenders on Seattle with Jackson Ragen sidelined by an injury. Kim Kee-Hee is also a nice lower-priced option.
Kai Wagner from Philadelphia has seen his bonus points production erode when compared with early season numbers, but he still remains an attacking threat on an excellent team that faces a floundering Inter Miami squad.
Alex Freeman from Orlando continues to impress on both sides of the ball. Good bench option.
Finally, hold your breath, cross your fingers, or say a prayer, because waiting anxiously to see (likelier than not) your clean sheets go poof is not for the faint of heart. But know that you’ll be in good company with at least 50% of your fellow FMLS managers!
The “Fantasy Physician” is Ron Birnbaum, @Half Century City on Discord
The “Fantasy Therapist” is Mike Leister, @Kenobi on Discord
