MLS Fantasy Boss A Fantasy MLS Community
By: The Fantasy Therapist
Welcome back. This week, we’re going to talk about risk. Risk is a common theme in these articles because a lot of the strategies we discuss are subjective choices that depend on your style of play. Should I risk a bold move for a potentially higher reward, or play it safe? The more risk you’re willing to accept, the higher your gains or losses will be from week to week.
Keeping Points
With that in mind, one of the most common questions we see in the MLSFB Discord is some variation of “Should I risk keeping a player’s score?” To start, I want to be clear that there is no “right” answer to this question – again, it’s all about how risky you choose to play. And obviously, this question only applies to players on your bench. If you’ve started a player, you’re stuck with their score, but if you’re using your bench to preview players’ points, you may have some decisions to make. Most often, this happens when a player has scored between 5-7 points, and this can be a tough call depending on who you may have still available to play.
Personally, I tend to favor taking the points in hand, so I will often keep a player’s score if it’s close enough to what I’d like to see. For me, this threshold varies from position to position and depending on how my week is going – if I’m losing a close H2H or two or am close to qualifying for FCL, I’m more likely to roll the dice and try to get a bigger score. For me, my threshold for attackers is usually 7 points, and for goalkeepers and defenders I will often accept a 5 or even sometimes a 4.
Defender Considerations
My threshold for defenders is lower due to MFLS’s 2024 scoring changes, which heavily favor clean sheets. Defensive players rarely exceed 8-9 points, unless they have a goal involvement or penalty save, making 7-8 points their typical ceiling. If a defender or keeper earns 5 points without a clean sheet, replacing them likely won’t gain much—perhaps 2-3 points—and could even cost me 2-4 points if the replacement underperforms or concedes goals. Therefore, I’d rather take the 5 points than risk it. For GKs, I’ll even keep a 4 if my overall score is satisfactory.
Attacker Considerations
For attackers, my expectations are higher. Because I’m picking them in hopes of goal involvements, I’m less likely to be satisfied with a lower score. 6 is the lowest I would accept from an attacker, but in most cases, I won’t keep an attacker for anything less than a 7 – the same score that they would earn from playing 60+ minutes and scoring a goal. The hope is that by stranding a player with 6 or less, the new player I choose can either score a goal or get an assist plus some BPs and score more than 6 pts.
In Week 14, I faced a crucial decision. Lionel Messi had scored 7 points on my bench, with Evander and Alonso Martinez still to play. To activate Messi’s points, I’d need to drop one if my entire bench performed well. The question was, would either Evander or Martinez outscore 7, or at least get close enough with bonus points to justify the risk? I weighed their matchups and potential for early substitutions due to an upcoming DGW. Luckily, Cristian Espinoza, my third bench player, only scored 3 points. This meant my autoroo automatically brought in Messi and Chucky Lozano as the top two scores, letting me keep both Evander and Martinez. As it turned out, both Evander and Martinez beat Messi’s score. However, if I had to choose, I probably would have benched Martinez to keep Messi’s 7.
How Does this Apply for Week 15?
For DGWs like Week 15, player decisions shift with two games’ scores. I often keep bench players who score 3-4 points initially, especially if their second game is favorable. This reinforces why an autoroo (starting 5 defenders, two as scrubs) is smart: start high-floor players and bench high-ceiling attackers hoping they ignite in one or both matches. I typically only strand a player after the first DGW games if they get a red card or truly blank (1 point or less). This week, with few ideal later matchups on Wednesday, I’ll be more inclined to keep players with mediocre first scores since there aren’t many attractive alternatives.
Hopefully this can help you make decisions about whether to keep a player, but remember, if you’re really feeling unsure, you can always ask the MLSFB Discord chat for advice – you won’t be the first! Good luck this week, check back for more tips next week, and don’t forget to have fun!
The “Fantasy Physician” is Ron Birnbaum, @Half Century City on Discord
The “Fantasy Therapist” is Mike Leister, @Kenobi on Discord
