Behind the Numbers: MLS Fantasy Week 29

Behind the Numbers

Week 28 Recap

Week 28 continued our late-season run of mediocrity as we dropped in the ranks again. I can’t remember the last time I was stuck in the OR 300s. I’ve just never really got traction this fall season. WR 1903 isn’t good enough and looking at my lineup, I probably plated it to safe. As we go into the last few weeks of the season, it’s probably worth trying out a tweak or a brand new philosophy. Maybe more on that next week.

Week 28 True Dream Team

Here are the rules.

  • only three players per team
  • must be a valid formation
  • must fit in the average budget for that week
  • ties are broken with lowest value player making the team
  • the bench is all 4.0 scrubs

So here’s the Week 28 TRUE Dream Team

Week 29 Team Defense Rankings

Projections provided by @thedummyrun on twitter.

Total Budget this Week: BTN Budget: $125.2

Goalkeepers

Top Teams

ATL, POR, SEA

The Player Pool

Must Haves

None

Top Options

Brad Guzan ATL GK $8.30
Steve Clark POR GK $7.90
Luis Robles NY GK $6.00

Price Rise Targets (Form/$ >~ 1.00)

Luis Robles NY GK $6.00

Value Players (PP90/$)

None

Bargain Bin

Notes

I’d be looking at ATL or POR for the Keeper this week. Its possible to do a Guzan/Clark Keeperoo which would be expensive in cost and positions from two of the best teams. Don’t think I’ll do it, but it’s possible.

Defenders

Top Teams

ATL, POR, SEA

The Player Pool

Must Haves

None

Top Options

Leandro Gonzalez Pirez ATL DF $8.60
Miles Robinson ATL DF $9.30
Ryan Hollingshead DAL DF $10.00
Jorge Moreira POR DF $9.50
Franco Escobar ATL DF $6.70
Michael Murillo NY DF $5.90
Amro Tarek NY DF $5.10
Reto Ziegler DAL DF $9.10
Kelvin Leerdam SEA DF $4.60

Price Rise Targets (Form/$ >~ 1.00)

Kelvin Leerdam SEA DF $4.60
Franco Escobar ATL DF $6.70
Amro Tarek NY DF $5.10
Michael Murillo NY DF $5.90
Leandro Gonzalez Pirez ATL DF $8.60

Value Players (PP90/$)

Kelvin Leerdam SEA DF $4.60
Amro Tarek NY DF $5.10
Michael Murillo NY DF $5.90
Franco Escobar ATL DF $6.70

Notes

Again POR and ATL are the top options. They have a good range of values depending on your budget and spending elsewhere. SEA is not a great defense, but seem to be getting into attacking form so maybe look full back.

Week 29 Team Offense Rankings

Projections provided by @thedummyrun on twitter.

Week 29 Top 50 Player Projections

Midfielders

The Player Pool

Top Teams

POR, SEA, ATL, NYRB

Must Haves

Diego Valeri POR MF $13.50
Nicolas Lodeiro SEA MF $12.80

Top Options

Daniel Royer NY MF $8.70
Pity Martinez ATL MF $9.40
Julian Gressel ATL MF $9.60
Michael Barrios DAL MF $10.50

Price Rise Targets (Form/$ >~ 1.00)

None

Value Players (PP90/$)

Marc Rzatkowksi NY MF $7.60
Sean Davis NY MF $6.90
Paxton Pomykal DAL MF $7.20

Notes

Some pretty fun options this week. Likely though it’ll be the value bench guys who are capable of separating your team from the rest this week. Pomykal and Rzatkowski, if they plays enough are high floor guys. Probably consider one of them in the autoroo paired with two more boom/bust plays.

Forwards

The Player Pool

Top Teams

POR, SEA, ATL, NYRB

Must Haves

None

Top Options

Josef Martinez ATL FW $13.90
Brian Fernandez POR FW $9.50
Raul Ruidiaz SEA FW $11.90
Jordan Morris SEA FW $10.00

Price Rise Targets (Form/$) >~ 1.00

Value Players (PP90/$)

Zdenek Ondrasek DAL FW $6.50
Brian White NY FW $7.60
Jeremy Ebobisse POR FW $5.60

Notes

Lots of strong forward options this week. It’s the end of the season, so lets set our aggressive end of season finish goals and try to hit them. Betting and hitting on big FWD plays will be a must to accomplish that.

2019 Week 29 Behind the Numbers Team

Here’s my first draft of the Behind the Numbers Team based on the discussion above. I’m gonna be honest guys, there’s not much correlation between the stats this week and the choices I wanted to make.

If you’d like to follow me on twitter, I’m @MLSFB_BTN. I typically post my updated lineup before the games start to show if my thinking has changed since this column went up.’

Resources for nerding out about MLS Fantasy

  • http://www.mlscheatsheet.com/ — Bonus point data, projections and more
  • https://www.americansocceranalysis.com/asa-xgoals — Interactive xG and passing data
  • https://www.whoscored.com/ — Analytics based player ratings

About Kyle Mcelhinny

Scientist by day, soccer fan by night. Nerd always. Using stats to overcome my lack of knowledge about the beautiful game.

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