Fantasy Strategy Clinic: Round 1 We Care – You Win!

 

Game Week 1: What is This Game and What is the Fantasy Strategy Clinic?

 

What is MLS Fantasy?

In 2024 over 84 million Americans played some fantasy sport. That’s a whopping one in four people! 11.2 million people played the 2024-2025 Fantasy Premier League game at last count. By contrast, at the end of 2024 just over 20,000 people from all over the world played the MLS Fantasy game. So in the world of fantasy sports and even soccer fantasy sports, it’s a small game played by a loyal group of players who care about a growing soccer league–one which Opta says just broke into the top 10 leagues of the world.  

The more you know about the game, the more fun it is–so educate yourself! Although MLS publishes the game rules at the official MLS Fantasy website, new players should check out the Beginner’s Guide to MLS Fantasy (as well as a multitude of other fantasy resources on mlsfantasyboss.com). You’ll have a lot of decisions to make and many factors go into player picks. New and veteran players should think hard about what the game really is about, which is predicting hard-to-predict stuff better than other people trying to do the same thing. Some questions to ask yourself:

Where will you get your edge? How does the bench-field structure help you limit uncertainty? Should you do what a lot of people are doing, or should you do something very different? Do good soccer players make good fantasy players? How do you know if a player will actually play enough minutes in a match to have a chance at a good fantasy score?  Can do you avoid traps and catastrophes? How should you use a limited budget to maximize point returns? What is the best way to increase that budget? Should you use some statistics to help you or rely on “eye tests” i.e. watching MLS games and learning to intuitively correlate what you see on the field with how players do in the fantasy game?

What is the Fantasy Strategy Clinic?

The “staff” at the Fantasy Strategy Clinic – The Fantasy Physician (Ron) and The Fantasy Therapist (Mike) – are here to help you. As mentioned above, there are a lot of good sources that will make specific player recommendations week to week. Our purpose is not just to be another one of those sources. After years of playing and engaging with top players in the Discord community, we’ve learned a lot about overarching strategies i.e. what informs those smart fantasy managers in their decision-making. That’s what we want to give you.

Each week we will examine one or more problems or challenges in the game and then provide an answer (or discussion on contrasting views to an answer) based on experience and data. Then we will try to connect those strategies to some specific player choices for that week.

Round 1 Big Question: Who are these players?

The big challenge of game week 1 is that there are a lot of unknowns and budgets are tight. New players have come to MLS and others have left. There is a brand new team in San Diego that could be a juggernaut or a contender for the MLS Wooden Spoon (the team with the worst record). Teams have changed their rosters and last year’s starting players may be gone or relegated to the bench or playing on new teams.

New arrivals notoriously struggle in their first year in MLS, even if they were stars in bigger leagues. Ask Olivier Giroud of Los Angeles FC how he enjoyed 2024. Giroud, the all-time leading goal scorer in French national team history, scored no goals and earned no assists in 10 games, many of which he started on a very good team. His MLS Fantasy average over 10 games was a telling 2.0 points per game. Two points in Fantasy is what a player gets for just being on the field over 60 minutes and doing nothing else of note. 

Now a returning player with an established record in the league is Lionel Messi and you should probably take him this week and make him your captain. Messi – an outlier if there ever was one – settled right into the league in 2023 and did historically well in 2024.  

My recommendations for game week 1: watch a lot of games and learn about new players, but lean toward established players for your squad. How will you recognize returning players if you are new to the game or MLS? At least for the first week, returning players will have a non-zero point-per-game average from 2024. While it’s always fun to try out the hyped, new players, it can be frustrating and often lead to disappointment. The Fantasy Physician is always happy to let the other doctors’ patients be the first to try out the new drugs. Good luck, we’ll see you on your next visit!

Contributors:

The “Fantasy Physician” is Ron Birnbaum, @Half Century City on Discord 

The “Fantasy Therapist ” is Mike Leister, @Kenobi on Discord