MLS Fantasy Boss A Fantasy MLS Community
By: The Fantasy Physician
Picking Defenders based on evidence
Hope that MLS break that gave us an FMLS proves restorative. Deep breath and let’s go! Back on the topic of picking defenders. Why? Because it’s not easy.
In round 14’s article, we looked hard at this question focusing on how hard it is to find clean sheets and how that affects FMLS formations. This week we are back to the defender question, emphasizing how individual players have performed. With half the season under our belt, we can now look at hard production numbers and identify players with something like consistent fantasy point production.
Mainly, beyond the 2 points for playing 60 minutes or more, defender returns come from 1) bonus points, 2) goal contributions, and 3) clean sheets. Let’s put those point sources under our microscope.
Do defenders consistently get good bonus points?
This may depend on your definition of “good.” If we compare bonus points with expected fantasy points from clean sheets, we see that there’s money to be made from bonus points. 28% of sides will record a clean sheet, but this is likelier for the home team (34% so about 1 in 3 games) than the away team (23%). The better managers call those clean sheets around 40% of the time, so a little better than just picking random home teams. They can expect about 2 fantasy points (40% x 5 points) from their defenders on average from clean sheets.
Therefore, a player who can consistently earns two bonus points or thereabouts may be thought to have a “built-in” clean sheet return in every game. In combing over defender data, I developed a definition of core bonus point production in home games that ignores yellow cards, negative assessments for goals-allowed, etc and focuses on their passing frequency-accuracy, key passes, clearances, and shots. Essentially, I was looking for defenders who will get about a 9 when their team gets a clean sheet and 4 (or maybe 3) if their team does not. I focused on players who have at least 4 relevant home scores ie ignoring short substitution appearances, etc. I focus on home games because you should be mostly taking home defenders. Data for defender “core bonus points” were from the first 15 game weeks.
To make the list long enough, I dropped the threshold to 1.5 of these effective BP per home game. Most of the defenders on this list are center backs from high possession teams like Vancouver, Columbus, and San Diego. Some appear here because they figure heavily into their teams’ attacking strategies, and so they earn BP from key passes and shots.
| Team | Player | Core Bonus Points |
| Montreal | Campbell | 2.3 |
| Columbus | Cheberko | 2.2 |
| San Diego | P. McNair | 2.1 |
| LAFC | Marlon | 2.0 |
| Seattle | Ragen | 2.0 |
| Vancouver | T. Blackmon | 1.8 |
| LAFC | Hollingshead | 1.8 |
| SKC | J Davis | 1.8 |
| Vancouver | M. Laborda | 1.8 |
| Columbus | Moreira | 1.7 |
| Vancouver | R. Veselinovic | 1.7 |
| San Diego | C. McVey | 1.7 |
| Cincinnati | Robinson | 1.7 |
| LA Galaxy | Garces | 1.6 |
| LAFC | Long | 1.6 |
| Nashville | Zimmerman | 1.6 |
| RSL | J. Glad | 1.6 |
| Montreal | Sealy | 1.6 |
| Cincinnati | Orellano | 1.5 |
| Philadelphia | Wagner | 1.5 |
| SKC | J Fernandez | 1.5 |
It’s easy to dismiss these bonus points. What’s one or two bonus points? But effectively that’s also what you are getting from your clean sheet hunting, and these bonus paints add up.
Which defender get attacking returns?
If our defenders participate in the attack and nab an assist here or a goal there, we are ecstatic. Even the best attacking defenders only contribute to a goal ie get an assist (3 fantasy points) or a goal (6 fantasy points) infrequently.
Here is a list of defenders with 4 or more goal contributions through game week 15 in 2025, ie roughly 1 in every 4 games. With most teams having 17 games (half the season) on the books at that point, you can see that in this elite group, we are talking about at most 1.5 points per game coming from these accomplishments. Now the regular BP in the first chart aren’t looking so bad!
| Team | Player | Goals | Assists | Goals + Assists | Points from GC |
| Philadelphia | Wagner | 1 | 6 | 7 | 24 |
| Vancouver | Ahmed | 0 | 5 | 5 | 15 |
| NYRB | Valencia | 0 | 5 | 5 | 15 |
| Houston | Dorsey | 2 | 4 | 6 | 24 |
| SJE | Jones | 1 | 4 | 5 | 18 |
| Nashville | Najar | 1 | 4 | 5 | 18 |
| Columbus | Moreira | 1 | 3 | 4 | 15 |
| New England | Feingold | 2 | 3 | 5 | 21 |
| Orlando | Freeman | 4 | 1 | 5 | 27 |
| Chicago | Gutman | 2 | 2 | 4 | 18 |
| Nashville | Lovitz | 2 | 2 | 4 | 18 |
Which teams get the most clean sheets?
The MLS clean sheet percentage is about 28%, better at home. But clearly some teams get more than others. Midway through the season, Minnesota has led the way, but you may notice their players are conspicuously absent from the other lists. It’s worth getting familiar with this list, though doing so should not short-circuit your attention to match-up. Visit the MLS Fantasy Boss Discord channel on Odds-Ranks-Stats where Motleybarnets has been kindly providing clean sheet odds for games this season. Many of the betting websites have them, too. Clean sheet data here are for the first half of the season.
| Team | Matches | Clean Sheets | Clean Sheet % |
| Minnesota United | 17 | 8 | 47.1 |
| NE Revolution | 15 | 7 | 46.7 |
| Vancouver | 15 | 7 | 46.7 |
| Houston Dynamo | 17 | 7 | 41.2 |
| NY Red Bulls | 17 | 7 | 41.2 |
| Orlando City | 17 | 7 | 41.2 |
| Philadelphia Union | 17 | 7 | 41.2 |
| San Diego FC | 17 | 7 | 41.2 |
| Austin | 17 | 6 | 35.3 |
| NYCFC | 17 | 6 | 35.3 |
| LAFC | 15 | 5 | 33.3 |
| Colorado Rapids | 16 | 5 | 31.3 |
| Portland Timbers | 16 | 5 | 31.3 |
| St. Louis | 16 | 5 | 31.3 |
| Charlotte | 17 | 5 | 29.4 |
| FC Cincinnati | 17 | 5 | 29.4 |
| Seattle Sounders | 17 | 5 | 29.4 |
| Nashville SC | 17 | 4 | 23.5 |
| SJ Earthquakes | 17 | 4 | 23.5 |
| Toronto FC | 17 | 4 | 23.5 |
| FC Dallas | 16 | 3 | 18.8 |
| Inter Miami | 16 | 3 | 18.8 |
| Sporting KC | 16 | 3 | 18.8 |
| CF Montréal | 17 | 3 | 17.6 |
| Columbus Crew | 17 | 3 | 17.6 |
| D.C. United | 17 | 3 | 17.6 |
| Real Salt Lake | 17 | 3 | 17.6 |
| Chicago Fire | 15 | 2 | 13.3 |
| Atlanta Utd | 17 | 1 | 5.9 |
| LA Galaxy | 17 | 1 | 5.9 |
| MLS | 496 | 141 | 28.4 |
Picking Defensive players Week 18
The reason I lead with players who get regular BP is that those actually happen regularly; your clean sheet picks will hit less often, and you will get goal contributions less often still. One of my rules of thumb is to try to get players on the field with higher BP potential that either have a good shot at a clean sheet (ideally 40% or higher) or a shot at a goal contribution ie I am looking for players who figure favorably in 2 out of the 3 lists in this article. If I want to or have to take a defender on only one list, I much prefer to have them on my bench. For managers who like to stack defenders from a team with their goalkeeper on a team with a strong clean sheet chance, realize that many teams have one defender with very favorable characteristics, so triple stacks may give up a lot compared to double stacks.
This round is a double game week with some players still away on international duty. Yes, our shortlists grow a lot shorter, because you will cross off players who will only play twice. In an “ordinary” double game week well into the season (“ordinary” in quotes because just how often is anything “ordinary” in this game?), I favor center backs over outside backs because they seem less likely to rotate from the physical demands of the short interval. However, if a defender you were considering isn’t away on international duty still, then he is likely to be rested and recharged from the recent international break. So consider outside backs too.
Highlights from the lists for this week:
- Ilan Feingold (New England) – with two home games on a team that lives near the top of the clean sheet list and his important role in an improving attack, Ilan Feingold should appear on many if not most top managers’ squads.
- Griffin Dorsey (Houston) – Similar to Feingold. Houston has one home and open game, but they get some clean sheets and Dorsey figures prominently into their attack.
- Columbus Crew Defenders – S. Moreira and Y. Cheberko: The Crew have seen something of a mysterious decline in their defensive success, but their long arc is good defense at home with the current players, and they have two home games. Perhaps the break time in the last few weeks will give Wilfred Nancy a chance to drill the defense back into shap. Consider high BP earners Moreira and Cheberko in that order, as Moreira is also the more important attacking threat. Lineup checking is key and rotation risk is always real with this team’s defenders.
- Andrew Gutman (Chicago Fire): Since collecting the data on goal contributions in the chart, Gutman added two more assists. With two home games, he will be on some FMLS squads and rightfully so. The kicker with Chicago is that they have struggled at home. This uncertainty might make him more of a bench play for managers willing to use a bench spot for a defender in a double game week.
- Kai Wagner (Philadelphia Union): An overly rigid approach to FMLS has drawbacks. Yes, he is playing two away games, but situated on a strong team and appearing on both the BP-generating list and the goal contribution list, no one can argue against him as a legitimate choice. Kai iis pretty close to what we mean by “fixture-proof.”
- 6Vancouver and San Diego Center Backs: Despite (fill in the blank here with adverse circumstance), these teams have done well and defensively, their center backs have great floors provided by the BP they earn, mostly from passing numbers. Challenging matchup this week for these teams, but there is probably still floor safety and rotation safety with Blackmon and Veselinovic from Vancouver and McNair or McVey from San Diego.
- Single Game Week fallbacks: If your bench completely fails and you need to pivot late in the gameweek to single game week defenders, look to BP stalwarts Jackson Ragen on Seattle and either Aaron Long, Ryan Hollingshead, or Marlon on LAFC,
Pick smart! Have fun!
The “Fantasy Physician” is Ron Birnbaum, @Half Century City on Discord
The “Fantasy Therapist” is Mike Leister, @Kenobi on Discord
