MLS Fantasy Boss A Fantasy MLS Community
By: The Fantasy Physician
Round 20 Big Questions – How best to handle non-massive (or mini-) Double Game Week
We are always building on our existing foundations. In Round 12 and Round 13, the Fantasy Therapist led you through the core strategies for double game weeks (both well worth a reread). Round 20 presents us with a new twist on the double game week: we will call it a mini-double game week (mini-DGW) because only four teams – LAFC, New England, Miami, and Colorado – play MLS games twice with the first games Wednesday and then again on Saturday. Other teams play only one MLS match, though a number have midweek US Open Cup or Canadian Championship fixtures, which could cause fatigue or rotation in these teams as well.
These circumstances raise a mix of the ordinary DGW challenges (a lot of chalk, double game week player rotation and dead-legs uncertainties) and some new ones.
Problems and Strategies for Mini-DGWs
At first blush, it may seem simple. Overall, each week FMLS managers pick 15 players. The game rules limit us to a maximum of three players per MLS team, so if there are four teams playing twice (and as a reminder, BOTH of their scores will add in to your total), then shouldn’t the strategy just be to take three players from each of the DGW teams (total of 12 there) and then 3 more players from teams with a single game? Well, maybe. Once you start to build your team, you are struck by certain problems:
- Problem #1 – The DGW teams play each other in their first games. Ordinarily, if I am choosing attackers from one team, I do not want to take defenders from among their opponents. It is no fun when your attacker scores a goal (+5 points) and a defender from the other side loses their clean sheet (-5 points) and so you net nothing. So, overall we assess matchups and take attackers from teams with great attacking prospects and defenders and goalkeepers from teams with strong prospects for clean sheets and perhaps hope for some bonus points and a rare attacking contribution from defenders. In a game that looks to be a wide open “goal fest,” I am happy to take attackers on both sides of those games, but the math doesn’t quite work out; you can’t take twelve attackers from four teams because the game allows us a total of five midfielders and three forwards, of whom at most seven can score. So, to maximize use of players who play twice, we may have to take some attacker-defender (or attacker-goalkeeper) tradeoffs, at least in the first match of the week.
- Problem #2 – Some single week players may outscore the weakest of my DGW players so the optimal strategy may or may not be to take 12 DGW players from the four DGW teams this week. Beware though, some “SGW” players have midweek non-MLS games and so may face rotation or fatigue issues like the DGW players with none of their DGW prospects. Study the schedule. Also, two modest scores from a DGW can easily approximate or exceed the average score from many of the best players.
- Problem #3 – Some single week teams play games after the DGW teams have played both games; others do not. The latest ones become potential switcheroo candidates if you don’t like what you see on your bench. But holding spots for them may mean bypassing some earlier SGW players with higher scoring potential or better matchups.
- Problems #4 – Should I just go with the chalk? The chalk factor for chalkiest players (i.e. the consensus high effective ownership players) this week will be very high. In the next section, we will see that four players are probably essential this week, barring unexpected non-availability. The answer is – I think – “yes” you must take them. Run with the pack on these ones and then you do not worry too much about how they do. You can feast on differentials elsewhere.
- Problem #5 – The usual DGW problem which is guessing who will play most or all the two games. The basics – covered well in our earlier articles on DGWs apply check lineups Wednesday, check the Player Availability Report, Disciplinary Report, and poke around the Discord to get up to the minute information on players’ expected minutes between the two games.
- Problem #6 – Goalkeeper problems. You will see! LAFC and Colorado have been using their second goalkeepers because of injuries to Hugo Lloris and Zach Steffen respectively. What if they return to action when you chose their understudy? Miami has used DGWs as a chance to rotate GKs in the past. What if you like a goalkeeper on a DGW team but like three field players from that team more? Do some SGW keepers have better prospects for a good score than certain DGW choices. If you take a DGW keeper from the early game and they do not score well, should you keeperoo to a keeper from the second DGW OR should you hold out for the second result with a plan to keeperoo to a late SGW keeper if that fails? A good SGW keeper choice gets a clean sheet 40% of the time. That average score may look like two points for playing and two points (40% x 5 bonus points) for a potential clean sheet, i.e. a 4. That is what you get from a DGW goalkeeper who just shows up for both games and does not concede too much, and the upside from two cracks at a clean sheet two games worth of possible penalty saves etc. is higher. See all the problems?
Round 20 Min-DGW Squad Selection
Essential Chalk: Messi, Bouanga, Gil, and Mihailovic. I think these players are essential even if they do not start the first game. If Messi starts in the first game, many if not most discerning mangers will captain him though some will consider LAFC’s standout, Denis Bouanga. Anyone else is very risky. These four players almost certainly should be on your squad, if they are on the gameday rosters on Wednesday i.e., if they start or even if they appear on their team’s bench and do not come with questionable fitness on the Player Availability we expect to see by Tuesday afternoon. Use your creative acumen elsewhere!
Strong but not chalk DGW players: Second attackers from Miami like forwards Suarez, Allende, or midfielder Segovia. Los Angeles FC defenders, Hollingshead, Long, or Segura. New England defender Feingold if he is back from injury and especially if he is playing. Forward Raphael Navarro from Colorado Rapids.
High floor DGW players who play a lot and whose floor-scores may add up nicely: Mark Delgado (MID LAFC), Timothy Tillman (MID, LAFC), Sergio Busquets (MID LAFC).
Players with a little floor and then some ceiling potential that might really add up: T. Ku-DiPietro (MID, Colorado) or Calvin Harris, J Dilrosun (new DP attacker on LAFC if added to game in time), J. Ebobisse or Nate Ordaz (both FWDs on LAFC)
Goalkeepers from DGW teams in which the case for three field players is not compelling: A. Ivacic from New England and N. Hansen from Colorado.
Late single game week fall back players: LA Galaxy has kept clean sheets in it is last two home games and play struggling side DC United late in the schedule, after Miami and New England have played both of their matches and after Colorado will have played 1 hour of their second match. LA Galaxy’s starting goalkeeper – Micovic – is a late SGW keeperoo choice and defenders (Yoshida or Garces for bonus points, Yamane or Aude for potential attacking returns) can work too. Marco Reus or Joseph Paintsil of LA Galaxy or Marcel Hartel of St. Louis could be fallback midfielders for those who did not select five from the DGW teams. The single game on Sunday between St Louis and Portland is well-placed for late switcheroos (and scrubs) but you must study the lineups and that unpredictable game carefully. Before you make your late game switcheroo decisions, make sure to reread the Fantasy Therapist’s seminal article on keeping versus risking bench scores with late switcheroos.
Single week players you may not be able to pass up even if they play early: Evander (MID, Cincinnati), M. Ojeda (MID, Orlando City), M. Pasalic (MID, Orlando City), A. Dreyer (MID, San Diego), and Kai Wagner (DEF, Philadelphia). They could also figure on some managers’ benches as part of autoroo-switcheroo plans.
Double Game Week Players to approach with caution because they may be on Yellow Card Watch (as of July 1st – check the updated MLS Disciplinary report on Tuesday). They have accumulated enough yellow cards that if they get one in the first game of the DGW, they will be suspended for the second one, which defeats the purpose of taking a DGW player. Although, some just risk it, other managers prefer to bench or even avoid players on yellow card watch.
- New England: M. Fofana (DEF), B. Ceballos (DEF)
- Miami: Luis Suarez (FWD)
- LAFC: Sergi Palencia (DEF)
- Colorado: C. Awaziem (DEF)
On the MLS Fantasy Insider Podcast, mini-DGWs have a bad rap. I tend to disagree with this assessment. I think some people dislike mini-DGWs because strong chalk feels coercive and then the circumstances compel us to consider players we ordinarily avoid or teams we avoid or teams with matchups we want to avoid. Nevertheless, the puzzling choices these game weeks present lead to varied solutions and interesting outcomes, and they certainly demand an understanding of many of the strategies we have outlined over the course of this season. Embrace the puzzle and challenge and your expanding grasp on nuances of the game, and you win no matter your score!
The “Fantasy Physician” is Ron Birnbaum, @Half Century City on Discord
The “Fantasy Therapist” is Mike Leister, @Kenobi on Discord
