MLS Fantasy Boss A Fantasy MLS Community
By: The Fantasy Meteorologist
Welcome back, I’m excited to bring you something a bit different than what you’re used to here. Rather fittingly, I’ll be discussing the weather. I say fitting because last week felt the full force of Mother Nature. Three games l experienced delays for poor weather, and popular picks such as Ojeda, Zinckernagel, and Mukhtar were sidelined for short and not-so-short periods of time.
We’ve all felt that deep dread when a game your fantasy week hinges on a game delay. Even less impactful games being delayed can throw a wrench in your plans, as players still lock at their listed start time, regardless of a delay. Furthermore, the lovely North American climate brings every type of weather you can name, from extreme heat and thunderstorms to dangerous cold, snowstorms, and windstorms.
Fortunately, I provide a forecast on the first gameday of most weeks, giving you the resources to react to these conditions. This forecast can be found in the MLS Fantasy Boss Discord under the #weather-alerts channel. However, the question remains: How should you react to poor weather, and how much should you let playing conditions dictate your fantasy team?
Dealing with Delays
It may be helpful to establish why games are typically delayed. The number one cause for delays is lightning in the area. MLS protocols are to delay the game for 30 minutes if lightning is reported within 8 miles of the stadium. The 30-minute timer will reset every time lightning strikes within that radius. Another relatively common cause of delay is pitch conditions. In the event of large amounts of rain/snow, the game may be called off due to the pitch being completely swamped. Finally, if the area is under threat of a large system such as a hurricane, the game may be called off days in advance, which is easy for you to adapt your team to.
The first thing to do each week is look at the forecast (if available) and check each game. If I believe a game is under any threat, I will provide a percent chance that I believe the game will play, with a short explanation of the weather implications below. This is all very important information that will propel you to make decisions regarding the weather. You may choose to transfer players out, or you may risk keeping players, which could give you an advantage over managers who don’t wish to take the risk.
If you choose to keep players from endangered games, the most important thing is to stay informed leading up to kickoff. If a game is delayed from kickoff, teams will likely announce it before your players lock, giving you time to transfer them out. An example from last week is the match between Orlando vs. Sporting Kansas City. The game was delayed before kickoff, meaning managers could fade players from that game out if they caught the situation in time. Or they could choose to keep the players in their squad and hope the game played. Many managers who picked Martin Ojeda and rode out the storm were pleased with that decision. Additionally, my forecasts estimated the games would play after the delay, so this information likely helped those who took it.
You may also take advantage of the “autoroo” strategy to solve your weather dilemmas. If you notice a game in danger of delay/cancellation but want to keep a player, you can move said player to the bench and put in a scrub. My typical strategy in these cases is to have one scrub on the field that any bench player can sub in for, as long as the sub creates a legal formation. I pair this scrub with one or two players from late games so I can wait until the game affected by weather plays or not. The scrub will automatically take your highest score from the bench; then you can decide if you want to replace the scrub with a player and take no bench scores (a “switcheroo”) or put in more scrubs to take more bench points. This is an excellent, low-risk response to games threatened by the weather.
Finally, the best defense against the weather is always “do your own research.” Predicting the weather in advance is difficult, and predictors are often wrong. For example, I predicted a storm to hit the Chicago vs. St. Louis game late in the evening, but it arrived hours early and delayed the game from kickoff. The game did play, and managers who watched that weather would have been able to adapt to this error and take players like Philip Zinckernagel or Hugo Cuypers who got good scores.
Adapting to Pitch Conditions
If you’re a regular in the MLS Fantasy Boss Discord, you may notice that my forecasts include more than just cancellation chances. I also include temperature and wind speeds, as well as noting some cases in which the area has received a lot of recent precipitation. These can also be factors in determining which players to trust.
Temperature can have small impacts on the game that could end up causing or limiting goals. In the heat of the summer, passing becomes slightly more favored by players than dribbling. This can lead to ball-dominant playmakers being on the ball more, earning them more bonus points and chances for goal contributions. Think of players like Carles Gil and Hany Mukhtar, who rack up key passes simply because they run their team’s offense. In other words, these players are the xGuy discussed in last week’s article.
Extreme cold can also have an impact on players. It is usually much more difficult for players to get loose in cold weather, and pacey players can find it difficult to use their normal speed to their advantage. This will usually limit chances created by wingers and through counterattacks, so players such as Antony and Joseph Paintsil will have a harder time beating their defenders.
Rainy conditions will likely favor quick counterattacks as the ball will skip across the surface much faster than usual. The ball is also much more difficult to handle for goalkeepers, allowing attackers much more margin for error. I would target players who are more willing to take a lot of shots in rainy games. I would expect players such as Evander and Denis Bouanga to have more chances on goal in those situations.
Wind is also important to the game, particularly when it’s howling at the surface. Windy games make the ball much harder to track in the air, often hanging defenders out to dry and allowing target players such as Christian Benteke to get on the end of more balls. This can also hinder players who often play the ball over the top of the defense, as these are much more difficult to control.
Finally, there is something to be said for home field advantage when bad weather comes to play, though it will come down to circumstance. For instance, I would expect Florida and Texas teams to excel at home in the heat against teams from the North and the West Coast, as they will be much more used to those steamy playing conditions. This is a similar effect to altitude, and it’s why we see Real Salt Lake and Colorado have massive home field advantages.
How Does This Apply for Week 25?
I have my eye on two games in which weather might be a factor by inducing a delay or cancellation. This will come with a quick disclaimer: this article is being published long before my forecasts are usually completed, so this is absolutely subject to change or being completely wrong.
The first game I’m looking at is the Nashville vs. Orlando game at 8:30 EDT on Saturday, August 23. I believe a delay is unlikely, but thunderstorms are possible, particularly early in the game. This is a perfect time to use the autoroo strategy. Let’s say you wanted to pick Mukhtar but aren’t convinced about the game playing. You can put him on the bench, along with two other outfield players and put a scrub in your starting lineup as your fourth starting defender. This will make any of your bench players eligible to sub in, meaning there lowers the risk of taking Mukhtar, since if his game doesn’t play, his score won’t count anyway.
The other game I have my eye on is the Charlotte vs. New York Red Bulls game at 7:00 EDT on Sunday, August 24. I believe this is much more likely to be a rain game than being subject to lightning. As mentioned earlier, rain games will make counterattacks more effective and allow more chances for shots to trickle into the net. Thus, I would consider players such as Zaha and Forsberg, who will likely be on the end of counterattacking moves and favor shooting.
Hopefully, this information will help you make weather-wise decisions this week and beyond, free of the fear of random cancellations. Don’t forget to check back in next week! Stay smart, good luck, and as always, have fun!
The “Fantasy Physician” is Ron Birnbaum, @Half Century City on Discord
The “Fantasy Therapist” is Mike Leister, @Kenobi on Discord
The “Fantasy Meteorologist” is Asher Malaschak, @Storminator on Discord
