MLS Fantasy Boss A Fantasy MLS Community
By: The Fantasy Therapist
Welcome back, are you ready for yet another mini DGW? Hopefully, you haven’t burned out through this long and crazier-than-usual season and are ready for the last push through the final two gameweeks. By the time I wrote this, Miami and Chicago have already played the first game of the week (on a Tuesday!), so you already have your DGW players sorted out, but there are still plenty of other decisions to make this weekend. It takes some mental fortitude to have made it through all the ups and downs that come with getting this far in the season, so be proud of yourself for staying with it for this long. Whether you’re happy with your rank or ready to take some chances to try to gain ground at the end, this article will endeavor to help you find the right path to ending the season on a good note.
If you’ve read this week’s Player Rankings (and if you haven’t, why not!?), you may have noticed that Isaac (@ZenVikingFC on Discord) already wrote a great intro for this article in his intro for the rankings. I won’t rehash the entire thing here, but he talks about playing it safe vs. taking some chances. This paragraph sums up just about everything I’m going to address this week:
If you’re currently in a prize position, it’s time to play it safe. Don’t swing too hard or you might find yourself crashing out of the top 50. If you’re just outside a prize position, it’s time for some calculated risks and clever bench plays. Only 35 points separate 50th from 100th, and anything can happen in this league.
Now, you don’t have to be competing for a prize position with your overall rank (but if you are, congrats!). You may just be trying to win a H2H league with a bunch of friends or challenging for a top rank in your team’s supporters league, but either way these are excellent tips. Managing your team to a high rank in the first place is a difficult prospect, and once you’re there, maintaining that balance of trying to gain ground on the people ahead of you without losing ground to those behind can be a tricky dance. I have certainly had some end-of-year crash-outs in years past that took me out of contention for prizes, so I know of what I speak.
Chalky McChalkface
If you’re in a spot where you’re happy with your rank or at least close to where you want to be, get comfortable with choosing chalk. (If you’re unfamiliar with the concept of chalk and its opposite number, the differential, see Week 11’s excellent breakdown by the Fantasy Physician.) It may seem boring, but when it comes to keeping your place in the standings, you want to play it relatively safe. One of the toughest parts of keeping a high rank is changing your mindset from what got you to this rank in the first place. The temptation is always strong to keep picking differentials that could vault you all the way to the top. But differentials are, by definition, a high-risk play. If they work out, great! But if not, you can lose important ground that you may not be able to make up this late in the season. By now, we know who the most consistent FMLS performers are. By picking from this pool of players, you’re guaranteeing that you won’t lose ground to others around you by missing out if a chalky player hauls. This is also an important time to pay close attention to lineups and injury reports – for instance, Philip Zinckernagel, who was very chalky this week due to Chicago’s DGW, started Tuesday’s game on the bench, so many managers chose to either move him to their FMLS bench or fade him entirely once lineups were released. Based on the chat on Discord, some people were also caught off guard by the game being played on a Tuesday, so be sure to check the schedule closely. As a reminder, the final gameweek of the season stretches over two calendar weeks with an international break in the middle, so be prepared for even more scheduling chaos and lineup surprises.
The Chase
Unless you are OR1 (hi, vurkes), there are still teams ahead of you that you’re trying to catch. Despite what I just said about differentials being a high-risk play, you will likely need to find a few diamonds in the rough who can help you gain ground on the week’s chalk squad. A great example this week is Luis Suarez, who has a DGW with two games at home. His scores have been all over the place this season with very little consistency and he’s also on yellow card watch, which led many managers (including me) to avoid him this week. But the managers who did take him were rewarded on Tuesday with a brace, and he still has another game to go because he managed to avoid getting a yellow card. Making these types of choices, while risky, can get you the points you need to pass some of the teams ahead of you. Sometimes this can also mean doubling or tripling up on one team. If you feel very strongly about a team’s matchup, why not try a double dip from that team to maximize your points?
Balancing Act
So, take risks, but also play it safe? Seems a little counterintuitive, right? It’s a difficult dance, but as long as you don’t go too far in either direction, you should be able to keep yourself in good shape. If you’re trying to maintain rank, I’d recommend making your team mostly chalk with a few differentials. I like to use my bench for my differential plays – that way if they all blank, I still have my chalky players on the field. It’s likely that not all of your chalk players will hit, but because they’re chalk, most other managers will eat the dud score too.
And if you’re not trying to maintain rank? Forget playing it safe, go ahead and swing for the fences! It’s probably a good idea to still have a few chalky players with good matchups, but at this point in the season, what have you got to lose? Think Dante Sealy has another 17 pointer in him? Maybe you like Leo Campana for a revenge game against Miami? Or maybe you’ve got a good feeling about Bongi Hlongwane against SKC? Shoot your shots!
How Does this Apply for Week 30?
DGW players have already been chosen, so you can only apply this advice to your SGW players this week. There are plenty of big name midfielders with good matchups this weekend, so chalk is less defined than is often the case, especially since you may have already used one or two slots for DGW players. If you’re hunting for differentials, Diego Luna and Paxten Aaronson both have a chance for a big game in their Rocky Mountain Cup matchup, and if you’re the kind of manager who likes to follow form, Joseph Paintsil has been on a tear lately for the Galaxy. If you didn’t already use all your forward slots on DGW players, the dynamic duo of Son Heung-Min and Denis Bouanga for LAFC will likely be heavy chalk, while Petar Musa and Idan Toklomati have favorable matchups and could be a source of big points from lower ownership players. Defenders remain a puzzle as they have all season, so go with your gut. Kai Wagner and any healthy Vancouver defender seem like the chalkiest SGW options.
We’re nearing the finish line of this season, so get yourself mentally prepared for the final push. Good luck in the rest of this week, check back for one last round of tips next week, and don’t forget to have fun!
The “Fantasy Physician” is Ron Birnbaum, @Half Century City on Discord
The “Fantasy Therapist” is Mike Leister, @Kenobi on Discord
The “Fantasy Meteorologist” is Asher Malaschak, @Storminator on Discord
The “Fantasy Gastroenterologist” is Christian Ward, @xward on Discord
