MLS Fantasy Boss A Fantasy MLS Community
By: The Fantasy Therapist
Welcome back, I hope navigating the last few weird weeks hasn’t been too painful. DGWs, extra small GWs and international absences have made this midseason stretch a challenging one. Now that we’re officially more than halfway through the season and with another unconventional week coming up in Week 17 (Thursday and Friday games plus more international absences), this seems like a good time to check in about decision making.
When FMLS throws scheduling curveballs like this, it’s a natural reaction to begin to question your process, especially if you’re struggling during this stretch (don’t worry, you’re not alone – lots of managers are). A common piece of advice is to “trust your gut.” But what exactly is “your gut?” Should you really trust it? And is it more reliable that just looking at stats?
What is your gut?
In fantasy terms, your gut can be referred to in many different ways. You can have a hunch or a feeling or pick someone on vibes, but whatever term you use, you’re saying the same thing: Something intangible, outside of a definable stat or predictive model, is telling you that player is going to do well this week. Obviously, this is not a scientific process, but there is something to this. I can’t tell you the number of times that my gut has told me to take a player that I’ve eventually tinkered away from, only for them to end up outscoring whoever I switched to. At this point, I start wondering whether my gut is good for anything except giving me heartburn. Some of this gut feeling is due to experience and knowledge of the game and the league – I generally can tell when a player has a good matchup or if they’re on a hot streak – but it’s also about learning to listen to yourself and not letting doubt creep in when you have this sort of strong feeling. And one of the biggest times that doubt creeps in for me is when I spend too much time looking at the numbers.
Why numbers don’t tell the whole story
To be clear, this is not an anti-stats article. Stats are hugely helpful in FMLS, and many of the top managers in the game rely on stats to pick their team in one way or another. But it’s really easy to get lost in the numbers – stats don’t always tell the whole story, and that’s where they can become the enemy of your gut. An example of this is the eye test. This is a subject of some debate among top managers, but to me, it’s an important part of FMLS success. For instance, going purely by stats, Lucho Acosta is one of the top midfielders in the league for chances created. But while stats may tell you that the team around him is terrible at finishing those chances, what they don’t tell you is that every time one of those chances doesn’t get finished, Lucho’s body language shows more and more frustration building, and that as we’ve seen in the past, he tends to shut down in situations like this. So in a week where Lucho and Dallas may have a great matchup on paper, my gut might tell me to stay away from him because his unhappiness with his teammates is affecting his performances and he’s primed for a meltdown. In this case, “my gut” is a mix of knowledge of Lucho’s past plus watching games this season and reading his body language. If you don’t get to watch lots of games and can’t apply the eye test, having a general awareness of what’s happening around the league can still help your gut.
Odds are another group of numbers that, when taken in a vacuum, can cause you to ignore your gut. In Week 16, the odds were very good for LAFC and Seattle to both keep a clean sheet. However, my gut was telling me neither of them would hold the cs (they didn’t and I listened to my gut… mostly). SKC hasn’t had a problem scoring lately and Vancouver’s, um, gastrointestinal demise was greatly exaggerated, so some of this can be attributed to learning to identify bad chalk. But listening to your gut can also be a good litmus test for deciding whether choosing a player feels right. The trick is learning when to listen.
How Does this Apply for Week 17?
When you’re making gut picks, I recommend using them sparingly. I do not recommend an entire team of gut picks, because you’re going to get some wrong. A lot of them, actually. Since there’s no clear parameters, it takes a lot of trial and error until you know when to listen to your gut and when to ignore it. I try to use the bench for my gut picks as much as possible, and if timing means I can’t put them on the bench, I try to make sure they’re scrubbable. That way if my bench hits, I don’t feel bad scrubbing them, but can still count it as a win if they hit. In Week 17, my gut is telling me that St. Louis’ defense is going to do well at home against the Galaxy. Thankfully, the timing of their game works well for a bench play, so I’ve got Bürki and a defender to be decided at lineups on the front end of my ’roos.
If you do choose to go with your gut this week, remember – everything in moderation (and keep some Tums or Pepcid nearby just in case). Good luck this week, check back for more tips next week, and don’t forget to have fun!
The “Fantasy Physician” is Ron Birnbaum, @Half Century City on Discord
The “Fantasy Therapist” is Mike Leister, @Kenobi on Discord
