Behind the Numbers: MLS Fantasy Week 12

Behind the Numbers

Week 11 Recap

The Behind the Numbers continues to soar up the ranks as we near the end of the season, putting us only 12 points off the pace of reaching our goal of top 100. Considering just 4 weeks ago we were ranked at nearly 700th its been quite a DGW rise. The Behind the Numbers team put up 146 and rose to OR 154 on the season. Sadly, we left some points on sidelines with an ill-advised last-second switch from Captain Poz to captain Zlatan. I said it on the podcast last week, I don’t know how he keeps scoring which scares me, but then I second guessed myself. The encouraging part of the team was the success of the #fantasymanbun. The GK and 4 defenders accounted for exactly half of the team’s points, matching the scoring from the front 6. The team value also continued to rise +2.0 to a total of 126.8.

Week 12 DGW Team Defense Rankings

Total Budget this Week: $126.8

Goalkeepers

So, you can technically do a DGW Keeperoo this week, but LAFC spots are really valuable, so I’d like to avoid that if at all possible, how Tyler Miller (7.4) should be on the radar as the top keeper this week. For me, I’m looking at Joe Willis (6.6) as the only double home keeper.

Other possible options look to be Guzan (8.3) who looks to be due a solid price rise after last week and Frei (7.4).

Defenders

Riding the Midweek defender train has really lead to good things for me over the last few weeks, particularly with the home teams. With that in mind, I’m targeting DEF from LAFC, HOU, TOR, SEA, and ATL.

From TOR, they’ve been maybe a little shakier at the back then their ranking suggests. However, Mavinga (7.4) and Morrow (6.6) have decent bonus point production and are largely locked in starters. DeLeon (6.5) remains attractive as an OOP player, but he’s yet to do anything of note.

In HOU, there’s very little in the way of top end or quality fantasy defenders. The only proven producer is Figueroa (6.9). The likes of Lundkvist (5.2) and DeLaGarza (5.0) do offer great value, however.

In ATL, you’re best using these guys as autoroo guys, but they’re form and bonus point production are solid. LGP (9.2) and Robinson (8.3) are pricey though.

For SEA, the outside back tandem of Smith (7.8) and Leerdam (8.0) have really slowed down with a dig in SEA’s form, but both offer offensive and defensive bonus point potential.

Like most LAFC players, there are some good options and they are expensive. Zimmerman (10.0) and Segura (8.3) both get good bonus point production and get to face a fading FCD team twice.

Week 12 DGW Team Offense Rankings

Week 12 Top 50 Player Projections

Note: Player projections extrapolate previous stats and matchup data for the current player and match up assuming that player plays the full 90 (SGW) or 180 (DGW). It does not factor in the probability of a player starting or being rotated during a DGW.

Midfielders/Forwards

Big names abound in the attacking half. Vela and Poz are already in your lineups. LAFC stalwarts Atuesta, Kaye, and Blessing should all be under strong consideration.

Behind the Number’s man crushes of Elis and Manotas shouldn’t be far behind. Memo Rodriguez offers a rare spot of value of this week.

If Nani plays this week he should also be in consideration, but I’m not sure his status. There’s other value to be found in ORL if they can be trusted not to rotate. Mueller and Kljestan are interesting.

Bradley and Osorio offer solid if unremarkable production. Jozy was supposed to be back last week. Coming off an injury he’s interesting but probably not worth the risk.

Josef is rounding into form, but two away games is worrisome.

2019 Week 12 BTN Team

Here’s my first draft based on the discussion above.

To enable me to spend up in the front six, we’re going with a back five again, ideally getting better value out of that price point. I’m really feeling the pain of the reduction from 4 players per team to 3 as there are quite a few more LAFC and HOU players I’d love to squeeze into my 11.

If you’d like to follow me on twitter, I’m @MLSFB_BTN. I typically post my updated lineup on Friday nights before the games start to show if my thinking has changed since this column went up.

Resources for nerding out about MLS Fantasy

  • http://www.mlscheatsheet.com/ — Bonus point data, projections and more
  • https://www.americansocceranalysis.com/asa-xgoals — Interactive xG and passing data
  • https://www.whoscored.com/ — Analytics based player ratings

About Kyle Mcelhinny

Scientist by day, soccer fan by night. Nerd always. Using stats to overcome my lack of knowledge about the beautiful game.

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