Behind the Numbers: MLS Fantasy Week 25

Behind the Numbers

Week 24 Team Value Recap

Lost value for the first time this season, go the Zlatan dice roll wrong, and basically lost distance in the OR race. Woof. Long season. Let’s get after it.

What I’m Thinking About.

  • Man, this season is full of DGW and it is an absolute grind.

Week 25 Team Defense Rankings

Projections provided by @thedummyrun on twitter.

Total Budget this Week: BTN Budget: $120.50

Goalkeepers

Top Teams

NYC, LAFC, SJE

The Player Pool

Must Haves

  • None

Top Options

  • Tyler Miller LAFC GK $7.40
  • Sean Johnson NYC GK $6.00

Price Rise Targets (Form/$ >~ 1.00)

  • Tyler Miller LAFC GK $7.40
  • Sean Johnson NYC GK $6.00

Value Players (PP90/$)

  • Daniel Vega SJ GK $5.10

Bargain Bin

  • Daniel Vega SJ GK $5.10

Notes

  • Outside of the top two picks, probably Hamid is the most attractive option even though the data doesn’t really point that way.
  • Vega is super cheap and VAN should be a good matchup…they just may get blitzed by LAFC…

Defenders

Top Teams

NYC, LAFC, SJE

The Player Pool

Must Haves

  • None

Top Options

  • Jordan Harvey LAFC DF $7.10
  • Frederic Brillant DC DF $8.10
  • Tommy Thompson SJ DF $7.30
  • Anton Tinnerholm NYC DF $8.00

Price Rise Targets (Form/$ >~ 1.00)

  • Eddie Segura LAFC DF $6.50
  • Jordan Harvey LAFC DF $7.10

Value Players (PP90/$)

  • Steven Beitashour LAFC DF $6.00
  • Ronald Matarrita NYC DF $5.60
  • Jordan Harvey LAFC DF $7.10
  • Joseph Mora DC DF $4.70
  • Eddie Segura LAFC DF $6.50

Bargain Bin

  • Donovan Pines DC DF $5.60
  • Joseph Mora DC DF $4.70
  • James Sands NYC DF $5.10
  • Nick Lima SJ DF $5.30

Week 24 Team Offense Rankings

Projections provided by @thedummyrun on twitter.

Week 24 Top 50 Player Projections

The DGW extravaganza seems to have finally gotten the better of the projections updating this week. Check out http://www.mlscheatsheet.com/ for some projections.

Midfielders

The Player Pool

Top Teams

LAFC, NYC, SJE, DCU

Must Haves

  • Maximiliano Moralez NYC MF $11.10
  • Eduard Atuesta LAFC MF $12.60

Top Options

  • Maximiliano Moralez NYC MF $11.10
  • Eduard Atuesta LAFC MF $12.60
  • Vako SJ MF $10.10
  • Magnus Eriksson SJ MF $10.30
  • Mark-Anthony Kaye LAFC MF $9.80

Price Rise Targets (Form/$ >~ 1.00)

  • Keaton Parks NYC MF $5.70
  • Ulises Segura DC MF $4.80
  • Latif Blessing LAFC MF $9.40
  • Eduard Atuesta LAFC MF $12.60
  • Vako SJ MF $10.10

Value Players (PP90/$)

  • Jesus Medina NYC MF $5.90
  • Ulises Segura DC MF $4.80
  • Keaton Parks NYC MF $5.70
  • Maximiliano Moralez NYC MF $11.10
  • Vako SJ MF $10.10

Bargain Bin

  • Jesus Medina NYC MF $5.90
  • Ulises Segura DC MF $4.80
  • Junior Moreno DC MF $5.50
  • Keaton Parks NYC MF $5.70
  • Judson Silva Tavares SJ MF $5.50

Forwards

The Player Pool

Top Teams

LAFC, NYC, SJE, DCU

Must Haves

  • Carlos Vela LAFC FW $14.50
  • Heber Araujo dos Santos NYC FW $10.40

Top Options

  • Adama Diomande LAFC FW $8.90
  • Wayne Rooney DC FW $10.00
  • Diego Rossi LAFC FW $9.80

Price Rise Targets (Form/$) >~ 1.00

  • Valentin Castellanos NYC FW $7.50

Value Players (PP90/$)

  • Valentin Castellanos NYC FW $7.50
  • Chris Wondolowski SJ FW $6.90

Bargain Bin

  • Valentin Castellanos NYC FW $7.50
  • Chris Wondolowski SJ FW $6.90

2019 Week 24 Behind the Numbers Team

Here’s my first draft of the Behind the Numbers Team based on the discussion above.

If you’d like to follow me on twitter, I’m @MLSFB_BTN. I typically post my updated lineup before the games start to show if my thinking has changed since this column went up.’

Resources for nerding out about MLS Fantasy

  • http://www.mlscheatsheet.com/ — Bonus point data, projections and more
  • https://www.americansocceranalysis.com/asa-xgoals — Interactive xG and passing data
  • https://www.whoscored.com/ — Analytics based player ratings

About Kyle Mcelhinny

Scientist by day, soccer fan by night. Nerd always. Using stats to overcome my lack of knowledge about the beautiful game.

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