DiffeRANCHals: 2025 Round 9

Every week, we’ll go over our suggestions from last week, and determine if they were a good or bad pick based on position and points. To describe in detail the ranking system, here is the metric: bust = 3 or fewer points (or did not play), average = 4-5 points, good = 6-8 points, great = 9+ points. Double gameweeks (DGWs) are scored as follows: bust = 6 or fewer points (or not starting/on the bench), average = 7-9 points, good = 10-12 points and great = 13+ points. Players not available for selection are disregarded and not counted as either a positive or a negative in the article.

Week 8 Results:

Matt:

Joel Waterman – Average (4 points)
Jonathan Bamba – Bust (3 points)
Chucky Lozano – Good (6 points)

Ranch:

Oleksandr Svatok- Bust (-1 points)
Lorenzo Insigne – Bust (3 points)
Sam Surridge – Great! (10 points)

Matt Results: 2 Great, 4 Good, 6 Average, 9 Bust

Ranch Results: 3 Great, 8 Good, 4 Average, 8 Bust

2025 Full Season Results: 5 Great, 12 Good, 10 Average, 17 Busts (61%)

Between normal FMLS scores and how the diffeRANCHals went, let’s look forward into the next week as quickly as possible. Although Surridge was a great pick (thanks to a last minute penalty), there were quite a few questionable picks last week. As we approach this new week, the matchups look to have more potential for quite a few differential picks. Let’s get into it!

Ranch: Brayan Ceballos, $6.5m (Defender – New England)

To be completely honest, I don’t have a solid reason for this pick. I likely will not be able to convince any of you to take a New England defender. Ceballos is solely a gut pick that I happened to stumble on and I think that he is going to do well this game week.

Matt: Edier Ocampo, $6.3m (Defender – Vancouver)

The Vancouver Whitecaps are currently on an insane run and are flying high on top of the Supporters’ Shield Standings. What is going under the radar is how good their defense as been. Statistically, they have had the lowest xGA/90 and have given up the second-lowest SCA/90. In other words, they are limiting the chance creation and the quality of chances the opposing teams are getting. To make it even better, Vancouver is taking on a St. Louis team that is struggling with injuries and absences. I’d say Vancouver has a sneaky chance at a clean sheet here and Ocampo provides a cheaper way into that backline with a chance for some bonus points.

Ranch: Brian Gutierrez, $8.6m (Midfielder – Chicago)

For anybody who is not paying attention, Brian Gutierrez knows how to rack up some bonus points. He has done it twice this year, finishing with 3 last week and 3 in week 3. Those are not including any goals, assists, or clean sheets. This week, Brian Gutierrez and Chicago host FC Cincinnati. Although the matchup looks difficult on paper, I still believe that Chicago can put in a goal or two. With Brian Gutierrez splitting sets, I think he can be on the end of one of those assists.

Matt: Owen Wolff, $7.6m (Midfielder – Austin)

I spoke about targeting a struggling St. Louis team above, so why not target another struggling team with the LA Galaxy? Most people are going to flock to Austin’s backline for early clean sheet shouts, but I think there is some points to be had in the attack too. The Galaxy have been far from defensively sound and, to make things worse, will most likely line up with Garces and Cerrillo as their centerback pairing. While the ceiling hasn’t always been there, Owen Wolff provides a budget-friendly midfield option that leads the team (alongside Bukari) in shot creation actions and will have the majority of set pieces.

Ranch: Kevin Denkey, $8.8m (Forward – Cincinnati)

On the flipside of the matchup, with Evander back in training and healthy, Kevin Denkey’s potential significantly increases. In their 5 games that they have played together thus far, Denkey has scored 3 goals. Chicago is a team that likes to allow quite a few shots on net, which has already forced Brady into 26 saves in 8 matches. That doesn’t even include their 12 goals conceded. If anybody can take advantage of a team who is allowing so many shots, it is Cincinnati. With Evander servicing Denkey, I am looking forward to a fun match to watch back and forth with lots of goals!

Matt: Jacen Russell-Rowe, $8.5m (Forward – Columbus)

This is either the third or fourth time Jacend Russell-Rowe has been a diffeRANCHhal. Even without Cucho, Columbus is still a lethal team and with adding Gazdag to the mix, there should be a ton of chance creation happening underneath JRR. Even though Miami does have a statistically strong defense, they always seem to find a way to concede. Most importantly, Meg in the MLSFB Discord has been picking unreal differentials this season and said she liked the look of JRR this week, so who am I to argue against that?!?

Contributors:
Tyler Norman, @Ranchinator on Discord
Matt Nelson, @Tinkerman on Discord