Predictions and Power Rankings – Round 1

VS-Predictions

 

Near the end of the 2013 MLS season, I came across some information about the ELO ranking system. Basically, there is a formula that is used to try to predict the winner of a match. Since soccer can end in a draw, I’m using a modified version of this formula that basically tries to predict the chance that a team will come away from a match with points.

Last season, this ELO system predicted the winner of a game 53% of the time. When I expand the the results to include draws (both teams getting 1 point) the success rate goes up to 78%.

But enough background. With the start of the 2014 just around the corner, here are the MLS Fantasy Boss predictions for Week 1 and our Power Rankings.

  Near the end of the 2013 MLS season, I came across some information about the ELO ranking system. Basically, there is a formula that is used to try to predict the winner of a match. Since soccer can end in a draw, I'm using a modified version of this formula that basically tries to predict the chance that a team will come away from a match with points. Last season, this ELO system predicted the winner of a game 53% of the time. When I expand the the results to include draws (both teams getting 1 point) the success…

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About MLS Fantasy Boss

Founder of MLS Fantasy Boss, moderator of /r/FantasyMLS, freelance contributing writer for fantasy.MLSsoccer.com. Passionate about all things MLS and growing the Fantasy MLS community.

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2 comments

  1. So, basically you cant lost if you play at home.

    • The is a documented home field advantage and the formula accounts for that. Saying that they cannot lose is not exactly correct, but they have the best chance to come away from a match with points (62%).

      All teams ending scores are adjusted at the end of a season and this moves everyone closer to the original mean. This accounts for team change over the off-season, but it does also mean that home teams will be more favored at the start.

      There are times when an away team has an advantage though.

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