Stats Summary – Week 5: All About That Pace

Pace of play is a huge area of focus for me as a coach. It is an area that can define teams on both sides of the ball. We know that LA tend to have longer build-ups than, say, Vancouver. We know that both New York teams are trying to win the ball back as quickly as possible. But how does this relate to the fantasy game?

I created a rough calculation for possessions per game: possessions = shots + incomplete passes + opponent tackles. It isn’t perfect, but it is a close enough approximation for our purposes with the readily available data. This also allowed us to calculate passes per possession.

Offensive Bonus by Team

There is a strong correlation (0.76) between attacking bonus points and passes per possession by team. What this tells us is that teams who play more direct like DC, Houston, and Chicago are less likely to earn attacking bonus points.

Team	Passes / Possession	Attacking Bonus / Game
SEA	3.5	5.8
CLB	3.2	7.4
LA	3.1	7.6
MTL	3.0	6.4
SKC	2.8	5.6
ORL	2.7	5.6
POR	2.6	9.0
NYCFC	2.6	7.2
COL	2.4	5.8
PHI	2.3	3.8
SJ	2.2	3.8
NYRB	2.2	6.0
DAL	2.2	4.3
TOR	2.1	4.4
VAN	2.1	3.5
NE	2.1	3.7
CHI	2.1	4.0
HOU	2.1	5.2
RSL	2.0	2.8
DC	1.9	4.7

Defensive Bonus by Team

There is a moderate correlation (0.45) between number of possessions and defensive bonus points earned. Teams who play at a faster tempo like either of the New York teams are more likely to earn defensive bonus points.

Team	Possessions / Game	Defensive Bonus / Game
NYRB	164.4	10.6
NYCFC	156.2	12.8
DC	148.8	12.8
NE	145.5	10.8
TOR	142.6	11.8
DAL	139.5	11.0
COL	133.4	10.8
HOU	133.2	9.4
CHI	131.6	10.8
CLB	128.6	10.6
PHI	128.6	10.0
VAN	128.5	9.7
SKC	128.0	8.6
SJ	123.6	12.6
RSL	122.2	12.0
MTL	121.2	10.4
LA	119.4	9.8
ORL	119.4	10.6
POR	112.2	10.8
SEA	109.4	8.2

Offensive Bonus by Opponent

Teams who concede more passes per possession also concede more attacking bonus with a strong correlation (0.68). Lower-pressure defensive systems like Seattle and Vancouver are more likely to concede attacking bonus points.

Opponent	Passes / Possession	Attacking Bonus / Game
CHI	3.1	6.0
SEA	3.1	5.4
VAN	3.0	7.3
MTL	2.9	6.0
SJ	2.7	6.8
ORL	2.7	6.0
POR	2.7	4.6
PHI	2.6	5.8
RSL	2.6	6.0
HOU	2.5	6.2
TOR	2.4	5.8
CLB	2.4	5.6
DC	2.3	4.5
SKC	2.3	5.4
NE	2.3	5.5
LA	2.2	2.4
DAL	2.1	4.3
COL	1.9	3.4
NYCFC	1.6	4.6
NYRB	1.5	3.8

Defensive Bonus by Opponent

Teams who play at a higher tempo are also more likely to concede defensive bonus points with moderate correlation (0.50).

Opponent	Possessions / Game	Defensive Bonus / Game
NYRB	157.0	13.4
TOR	148.0	9.2
NE	146.7	13.0
DC	146.2	12.7
COL	140.4	11.4
NYCFC	137.6	14.4
PHI	137.0	10.0
DAL	135.8	10.0
HOU	133.6	10.0
VAN	132.0	10.0
CHI	130.6	10.8
ORL	129.4	9.4
MTL	127.0	9.2
SKC	124.6	9.0
SJ	124.4	9.8
CLB	124.0	13.4
RSL	118.0	7.8
LA	117.6	9.4
POR	116.0	11.2
SEA	110.8	9.8

Conclusions

Seattle play at the slowest tempo in the league allowing long passing strings on both sides of the ball – good for Alonso, bad for pretty much everyone else on Seattle. Unfortunately, there’s a lack of penetration in both the middle and attacking thirds for Seattle which is the eyeball test explanation for why they aren’t scoring more attacking bonus.

I am not a big believer in the Yankee Stadium bump and think it is mostly due to the team’s style of play. Any game involving NYCFC is going to be a bonus point bonanza. I can’t wait for round 11 when they face off against another fast-paced team in NYRB.

Although DC appear near the top in number of possessions, I don’t think they’re a high-tempo team. A lot of it has to do with them simply not being able to hold possession so the ball keeps coming back at them.

New England are having an unexpectedly difficult time stringing passes together, resulting in their seemingly poor form. I’m not sure what the reason for this is, but something to keep an eye on.

Random Observations

Giovinco, Plata, Piatti, Diaz, Valeri, Tierney are all producing at incredible rates. Just a reminder to keep an eye on set-piece takers as they have time and again proven to be high scorers in FMLS.

Round 5 had the fewest attacking bonus points to date with just 94. That helps to explain why so many of us who spent big on our attacks faltered last week.

Houston’s attacking bonus point production dropped by a third from the first two games to their next three. I think their last three are closer to their expected output going forward. I hope you all heeded my advice after week 2 to avoid Wenger as he hasn’t even averaged 2.5 PPG since then.

Nearly a quarter of all shots have been blocked. San Jose has a whopping 57% of their shots blocked with LA having just 10% blocked.

LA won the bonus point battle with Portland’s attack, holding them to just 2 attacking bonus – way below the 10+ Portland averaged in their other games. Nigel De Jong deserves a lot of credit for getting the LA midfield sorted tactically (ignoring the bad tackle, of course).