The DGW Trap

Conventional wisdom says managers should load up on as many DGW players as they can. Choosing players that from stronger teams or with the most favorable matchups tends to lead to massive scores. This is also where managers really begin to separate from the pack or make up ground in the standings. But DGW’s come with their own hidden costs.

With all DGWS, overloading on players from one team can lead to massive imbalances in your squad. Unwise transfers can leave you stuck with a sub-optimal squad or taking a -4 hit to correct the mistake. Getting an extra 3-5 points on the defensive line is great one week, but not if it comes at the expense of a more valuable or cost effective player later.

The upcoming DGW also marks a first for FMLS where two weekends of games are combined. The first weekend will see only six teams play during an international window that threatens to take a lot of players. Keep an eye on the senior and U23 national team rosters around CONCACAf and the team news for call-ups. The four teams on doubles stand to lose quite a few players.

For Round 4, the trap is set. Guys like Diaz, Porales, Castillo, and Urutti, are probably safe bets. Swapping out one premium forward or mid for another shouldn’t cause too much issue, but the deeper down the roster, the worse things look. The value players are not top priorities at the moment.

Goalkeepers

Goalkeeper transfers don’t help the team much, but if you are in the situation where you need to or want to burn an extra transfer, looking at Shuttleworth or Worra is the best option.  Worra is cheap, but playing behind a somewhat shaky defense, $4.1 for a starter is hard to pass up.  If you prefer a bit more reliable points in the back, Shuttleworth is the guy and his defense appears to be the least likely to be affected by the international weekend during the DGW.  Gonzalez and Ousted were preseason favorites this year and solid options. They may not be the prime targets for the DGW, but they are definitely solid options for the long haul.

Defenders

Dallas has the most cost effective defenders of the set, but many will be away on national team duty. DC has been hit or miss in the back and is hard to trust. Vancouver hasn’t fared well against two strong attacks; they will be facing Houston who put up 5 goals against Dallas and a potent LA Galaxy. New England appears to be the best option, but even they have tough games starting the set in NYC and then playing the Red Bulls at home.

Midfielders

New England’s midfield will likely be without Nguyen and Fagundez may get called up as well. These two have been the better playmakers on the team. The rest of the offensive minded players have struggled to lock down starting roles. Vancouver will still have most of their core, but once again, the quality of the opponent may come into play. Dallas will follow the trend with their big names leading the way, so there aren’t really any hidden gems for the DGW. DC is a wash, especially with the history of resting players. Given the situation, Neagle is worth a look, but the rest of the squad has failed to shine.

Forwards

This is where the real money can be made if the teams had reliable forwards. DC and Vancouver have yet to get a goal from a forward. Davies and Urutti each have one, but Davies being injured leaves him out of the lineup. Urutti appears to be the best option for the DGW

National Team Duty

With the international window, this DGW will feel mostly like a normal week with a few potential breakout players.  SoccerCaptains of /r/fantasymls has compiled a great list of the call-ups, when players will be active with their national teams, and what MLS club they play for.  You can find the discussion at https://www.reddit.com/r/FantasyMLS/comments/4beayo/ive_created_a_spreadsheet_to_track_march_2016/

Suggested Value Pickups

• Laba $7.5 VAN
• Neagle $7.5 DC
• Urutti $8.4 DAL

Verdict

With the way Round 4’s DGW teams are shaping up, it’s probably best to stick with known quantities and avoid the gambles. Diaz and Porales are the only locks to have on the roster. If you can swing a keeper transfer, Shuttleworth or Worra both have their merits. The three suggestions would be valuable additions given their performances so far. Everyone else seems like a stretch.

If you are absolutely set on DGW players and willing to take multiple -4s, reach for Dallas players as they have another DGW in Round 6.  They may or may not make their points up now, but they should turn a profit at that point.

PS. To add insult to injury, the DGW might be the first appearance of Zach Loyd in 2016.