2017 Round 21 Expected Player Offensive Points

Every week, I’ll be publishing a list of top players ranked by expected offensive points. “Offensive points” includes expected shots, goals, assists, and key passes based on the weekly matchup(s) and past performance. It also includes the 2 points the player would receive for playing 60+ minutes. Sadly, offensive bonus points (except key passes) are not included at this time.

Defensive bonus points are also not currently included because of the limitations of the data set.

The basic premise of this model

Take the chance of an event (such as an assist) happening and multiply it by the fantasy value of that event were to occur. This is what is known as the expected value, and it is one of the most common statistical methods used in the fantasy sports community to predict player value, typical or average points on a particular type of play, and player consistency.

If you’d like to read more about expected value and see more examples of its usage, feel free to check out Statistics How To’s explanation.

Please take these assumptions into mind when using this information to select players for your team:

• This model only takes offensive fantasy production into account:  no bonus points or clean sheets are included. There are plenty of good players out there who get bonus points and clean sheets who will not be on this list.
• Player are assumed to play full 96 minutes (the average length of a game) for all games played. If players are to be rotated, especially during double game weeks, their projections will not reflect that knowledge.  If players are substituted in or out for part of the game, such lack of playing time will not be reflected in these projections. The goal of these projections is to say, “If this player plays all 96 minutes, based on his past performance, how many offensive points would he be expected to get?”
• The status of players due to injuries, international call-ups, etc., is unknown to this model. Be sure to check a player’s status before adding him to your team.
• The data set is limited to those players who have played at least 400 minutes, so good players who haven’t played as much this season may not appear on this list.

With that said, let’s get into this round’s data.

Round 21 Expected Player Offensive Points

First	Last	Team	Min	Shtp96	xGp96	KPp96	xAp96	xPoints
Roland	Alberg	PHI	460	2.71	0.54	0.63	0.04	10.4
C.J.	Sapong	PHI	1578	2.01	0.47	1.03	0.11	10.3
Ola	Kamara	CLB	1706	2.81	0.49	0.96	0.16	10.1
Justin	Meram	CLB	1619	2.49	0.36	1.84	0.21	9.5
Federico	Higuain	CLB	1614	2.38	0.27	2.44	0.22	9.0
Fabian	Herbers	PHI	433	1.77	0.18	1.77	0.24	8.1
Josef	Martinez	ATL	628	4.89	0.76	0.46	0.02	8.0
Chris	Pontius	PHI	1436	1.74	0.12	1.47	0.23	8.0
Niko	Hansen	CLB	448	1.5	0.22	1.07	0.24	7.8
Fabrice-Jean	Picault	PHI	990	2.13	0.25	0.48	0.04	7.7
	Ilsinho	PHI	990	2.13	0.14	0.87	0.13	7.4
Bradley	Wright-Phillips	NYRB	1588	3.08	0.5	1.09	0.12	7.3
Kevin	Molino	MN	1561	2.09	0.39	1.6	0.18	7.2
Haris	Medunjanin	PHI	1717	0.95	0.04	2.4	0.19	7.1
Joao	Plata	RSL	1270	3.4	0.46	2.65	0.26	7.1
Alejandro	Bedoya	PHI	1329	1.16	0.14	1.08	0.09	7.0
Erick	Torres	HOU	1483	3.43	0.65	1.42	0.11	6.9
Romain	Alessandrini	LA	1484	3.62	0.32	2.2	0.26	6.9
Lee	Nguyen	NE	1648	1.69	0.39	3.32	0.3	6.7
Giovani	dos Santos	LA	1091	2.55	0.43	1.76	0.18	6.7
Ethan	Finlay	CLB	1234	1.4	0.16	0.86	0.11	6.6
Fredrik	Gulbrandsen	NYRB	404	3.09	0.33	0.95	0.26	6.6
Harrison	Afful	CLB	1214	1.03	0.04	1.34	0.21	6.5
Maximiliano	Urruti	DAL	1484	3.75	0.38	0.97	0.11	6.5
Christian	Ramirez	MN	1707	2.47	0.44	0.39	0.03	6.4
Alberth	Elis	HOU	935	3.39	0.48	1.13	0.22	6.3
Kei	Kamara	NE	1308	3.45	0.36	1.1	0.2	6.3
Roland	Lamah	DAL	1173	2.13	0.43	1.55	0.12	6.3
Daniel	Royer	NYRB	1403	2.19	0.39	0.75	0.09	6.1
Waylon	Francis	CLB	590	1.14	0.1	0.49	0.1	6.0
Kekuta	Manneh	CLB	515	1.86	0.11	0.75	0.06	6.0
Yura	Movsisyan	RSL	1319	2.62	0.44	0.87	0.13	6.0
Johan	Venegas	MN	1059	2.36	0.2	1.9	0.25	6.0
David	Villa	NYC	1609	4.71	0.53	2.51	0.27	6.0
Diego	Fagundez	NE	1561	2.89	0.34	1.05	0.14	6.0
Juan	Agudelo	NE	1057	2.27	0.38	1.54	0.18	6.0
Clint	Dempsey	SEA	1359	4.24	0.54	1.77	0.17	5.9
Mauro	Manotas	HOU	1257	3.13	0.44	1.76	0.17	5.9
Sebastian	Giovinco	TOR	1220	5.51	0.49	1.42	0.16	5.9
Jefferson	Savarino	RSL	693	3.46	0.26	1.66	0.25	5.8
Miguel	Almiron	ATL	1634	2.59	0.25	1.76	0.24	5.8
Cristian	Colman	DAL	584	3.12	0.31	0.66	0.13	5.7
Jahmir	Hyka	SJ	1377	2.16	0.27	2.65	0.24	5.7
Danny	Hoesen	SJ	1099	3.06	0.33	1.14	0.13	5.6
Hector	Villalba	ATL	1527	3.02	0.34	1.13	0.11	5.6
Michael	Barrios	DAL	1299	2.29	0.17	2.22	0.3	5.6
Marco	Urena	SJ	1181	2.44	0.26	1.46	0.24	5.6
Oguchi	Onyewu	PHI	1383	0.56	0.08	0	0	5.5
Jozy	Altidore	TOR	1427	2.96	0.53	1.55	0.16	5.5
Dominic	Dwyer	SKC	1334	3.24	0.47	0.65	0.06	5.5
Will	Bruin	SEA	859	3.02	0.57	1.01	0.1	5.4
Jonathan	Mensah	CLB	1196	0.96	0.06	0.16	0.01	5.3
Sebastian	Saucedo	RSL	524	3.48	0.22	1.65	0.22	5.3
Wil	Trapp	CLB	1874	0.26	0.01	0.56	0.03	5.3
Alex	Muyl	NYRB	1057	1.73	0.31	0.64	0.08	5.3
Richie	Marquez	PHI	774	0.5	0.05	0.25	0.05	5.2
Romell	Quioto	HOU	719	2.14	0.28	1.2	0.28	5.2
Alex	Crognale	CLB	767	0.75	0.06	0.13	0.05	5.2
	Artur	CLB	1062	0.9	0.04	0.45	0.03	5.2
Fanendo	Adi	POR	1810	3.5	0.59	1.22	0.09	5.2
Latif	Blessing	SKC	723	2.52	0.42	1.86	0.1	5.2
Jukka	Raitala	CLB	1352	0.28	0.02	0.99	0.07	5.1
	Fabinho	PHI	1333	0.29	0.02	0.36	0.02	5.1
Chris	Wondolowski	SJ	1766	1.85	0.26	1.09	0.15	5.1
Diego	Valeri	POR	1650	2.91	0.41	2.21	0.29	5.1
Sacha	Kljestan	NYRB	1549	1.18	0.07	3.16	0.29	5.1
Tommy	Thompson	SJ	801	2.64	0.18	1.68	0.24	5.1
Jack	Elliott	PHI	1261	0.23	0.03	0.08	0.01	4.9
Hector	Jimenez	CLB	534	0.18	0.01	1.26	0.09	4.9
Nicolai	Naess	CLB	1362	0.42	0.02	0.14	0.01	4.9
Abu	Danladi	MN	551	1.92	0.21	1.39	0.1	4.8
Raymon	Gaddis	PHI	1080	0.09	0.01	0.27	0.02	4.8
Derrick	Jones	PHI	756	0.63	0.02	0.38	0.01	4.8
Rodney	Wallace	NYC	1369	2.52	0.43	1.33	0.15	4.8
Soony	Saad	SKC	413	3.02	0.26	1.39	0.18	4.8
Gerso	Fernandes	SKC	1723	2.62	0.28	1.39	0.12	4.8
Luis	Silva	RSL	829	2.32	0.29	0.69	0.07	4.7
Mohammed	Abu	CLB	744	0.52	0.01	0.52	0.03	4.7
Benny	Feilhaber	SKC	1569	1.9	0.11	2.94	0.33	4.7
Bashkim	Kadrii	MN	413	2.79	0.14	0.46	0.11	4.7
Tesho	Akindele	DAL	1053	1	0.19	2.01	0.19	4.7
Nemanja	Nikolic	CHI	1721	3.79	0.68	0.73	0.07	4.7
Jermaine	Jones	LA	705	1.91	0.19	2.04	0.12	4.6
Keegan	Rosenberry	PHI	638	0.3	0.01	0.3	0.01	4.6
Josh	Williams	CLB	857	0.22	0.02	0.34	0.01	4.6
Nicolas	Lodeiro	SEA	1795	2.03	0.17	2.19	0.28	4.6
Kellyn	Acosta	DAL	1162	2.23	0.15	1.24	0.1	4.5
Albert	Rusnak	RSL	1387	2.42	0.12	2.63	0.17	4.5
Kelyn	Rowe	NE	1510	1.59	0.1	1.72	0.2	4.5
Yamil	Asad	ATL	1540	1.81	0.11	1.43	0.18	4.5
Zack	Steffen	CLB	1902	0	0	0.05	0	4.4
Miguel	Ibarra	MN	1131	1.27	0.1	1.44	0.17	4.3
David	Accam	CHI	1299	2.66	0.44	2.22	0.3	4.3
Patrick	Mullins	DC	416	2.77	0.39	0.46	0.05	4.3
Derrick	Etienne	NYRB	432	1.33	0.18	0.89	0.12	4.3
Kemar	Lawrence	NYRB	1395	0.76	0.09	0.76	0.19	4.3
Luciano	Acosta	DC	1260	2.21	0.24	2.13	0.19	4.3
Fredy	Montero	VAN	1322	3.34	0.52	1.16	0.11	4.3
Emmanuel	Boateng	LA	1294	1.34	0.15	1.71	0.13	4.3
	Alex	HOU	1463	1.64	0.1	2.23	0.24	4.2
Jack	Harrison	NYC	1649	2.1	0.27	1.51	0.19	4.2
Julian	Gressel	ATL	1248	1.31	0.15	1.38	0.17	4.2
Kenwyne	Jones	ATL	470	1.84	0.24	0.61	0.05	4.2
Tosaint	Ricketts	TOR	585	2.63	0.36	0.82	0.04	4.2
Cyle	Larin	ORL	1574	2.44	0.48	0.91	0.05	4.1
Victor	Vazquez	TOR	1228	1.41	0.15	3.36	0.31	4.1
Gyasi	Zardes	LA	1007	1.14	0.16	1.33	0.11	4.1
Andrew	Wenger	HOU	557	1.72	0.19	1.38	0.15	4.1
Jimmy	Medranda	SKC	1375	2.51	0.14	1.33	0.13	4.0
Blerim	Dzemaili	MTL	650	3.69	0.24	2.51	0.28	4.0
Jordan	Morris	SEA	1354	1.49	0.25	1.06	0.15	4.0
Brooks	Lennon	RSL	1066	0.9	0.07	1.89	0.23	4.0
Lamar	Neagle	DC	1108	1.99	0.32	0.87	0.05	4.0
Maximiliano	Moralez	NYC	1419	1.35	0.14	2.64	0.29	4.0

Note: Round 20 data was not included in the source data, so the final results aren't taking into account 1/20 of this season's totals, an acceptable error given the amount of data we do have.
Min = total minutes played
Shtp96 = shots per 96 minutes
xGp96 = expected goals per 96 minutes
KPp96 = key passes per 96 minutes
xAp96 = expected assists per 96 minutes
xPoints = total expected offensive points

The obvious question here is which Philadelphia and Columbus players will actually play both games. Those two teams populate the better part of the top of this chart, but much of that has to do with the 4 points each would be expected to get for playing 60+ minutes each game. Be sure to check the lineups before rosters lock!

Players on this list who have excellent bonus point production and who should be considered higher floor options this week (given they start, of course!):

• Medunjanin: 1.6 BPp96 (bonus points per 96 minutes)
• Molino: 1.4 BPp96
• Plata: 1.3 BPp96
• Alessandrini: 1.9 BPp96
• Nguyen: 1.7 BPp96
• Afful: 1.3 BPp96
• Almiron: 1.5 BPp96
• Onyewu: 1.5 BPp96
• Mensah: 1.6 BPp96
• Crognale: 2.0 BPp96!

Good luck mixing and matching with the DGW this week!

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Source data behind the calculations come from American Soccer Analysis.