2017 Round 22 Expected Player Offensive Points

Every week, I’ll be publishing a list of top players ranked by expected offensive points. “Offensive points” includes expected shots, goals, assists, and key passes based on the weekly matchup(s) and past performance. It also includes the 2 points the player would receive for playing 60+ minutes. Sadly, offensive bonus points (except key passes) are not included at this time.

Defensive bonus points are also not currently included because of the limitations of the data set.

The basic premise of this model

Take the chance of an event (such as an assist) happening and multiply it by the fantasy value of that event were to occur. This is what is known as the expected value, and it is one of the most common statistical methods used in the fantasy sports community to predict player value, typical or average points on a particular type of play, and player consistency.

If you’d like to read more about expected value and see more examples of its usage, feel free to check out Statistics How To’s explanation.

Please take these assumptions into mind when using this information to select players for your team:

• This model only takes offensive fantasy production into account:  no bonus points or clean sheets are included. There are plenty of good players out there who get bonus points and clean sheets who will not be on this list.
• Player are assumed to play full 96 minutes (the average length of a game) for all games played. If players are to be rotated, especially during double game weeks, their projections will not reflect that knowledge.  If players are substituted in or out for part of the game, such lack of playing time will not be reflected in these projections. The goal of these projections is to say, “If this player plays all 96 minutes, based on his past performance, how many offensive points would he be expected to get?”
• The status of players due to injuries, international call-ups, etc., is unknown to this model. Be sure to check a player’s status before adding him to your team.
• The data set is limited to those players who have played at least 400 minutes, so good players who haven’t played as much this season may not appear on this list.

With that said, let’s get into this round’s data.

Round 22 Expected Player Offensive Points

First	Last	Team	Min	Shtp96	xGp96	KPp96	xAp96	xOffPt*
David	Villa	NYC	1878	4.7	0.49	2.66	0.29	8.0
Nemanja	Nikolic	CHI	1915	3.86	0.7	0.65	0.07	7.7
Joao	Plata	RSL	1548	3.91	0.59	2.91	0.28	7.6
Fanendo	Adi	POR	1943	3.36	0.57	1.19	0.09	7.4
Diego	Valeri	POR	1941	2.87	0.38	2.28	0.28	7.2
David	Accam	CHI	1388	2.84	0.48	2.14	0.28	7.1
Clint	Dempsey	SEA	1454	4.16	0.53	1.72	0.17	6.9
Erick	Torres	HOU	1548	3.35	0.63	1.55	0.12	6.5
Mauro	Manotas	HOU	1533	3.44	0.54	1.82	0.19	6.3
Rodney	Wallace	NYC	1369	2.52	0.43	1.33	0.15	6.3
Sebastian	Giovinco	TOR	1451	5.62	0.48	1.65	0.16	6.2
Kevin	Molino	MN	1849	1.97	0.35	1.61	0.18	6.2
Alberth	Elis	HOU	984	3.41	0.51	1.07	0.21	6.2
Latif	Blessing	SKC	906	2.65	0.45	1.8	0.09	6.0
Jozy	Altidore	TOR	1504	2.94	0.56	1.53	0.16	6.0
Will	Bruin	SEA	1126	2.81	0.5	1.11	0.11	5.9
Marco	Urena	SJ	1258	2.52	0.28	1.45	0.26	5.9
Teal	Bunbury	NE	478	3.62	0.65	1	0.17	5.8
Danny	Hoesen	SJ	1224	3.06	0.32	1.41	0.15	5.8
Jahmir	Hyka	SJ	1551	2.04	0.24	2.6	0.27	5.7
Benny	Feilhaber	SKC	1756	1.97	0.19	2.73	0.3	5.7
Alan	Gordon	COL	540	2.13	0.41	1.24	0.1	5.6
Christian	Ramirez	MN	1943	2.52	0.42	0.4	0.03	5.6
Yura	Movsisyan	RSL	1337	2.66	0.44	0.86	0.12	5.6
C.J.	Sapong	PHI	1862	2.01	0.47	1.08	0.13	5.5
Ignacio	Piatti	MTL	1291	2.75	0.31	1.78	0.17	5.5
Shkelzen	Gashi	COL	638	2.71	0.29	1.81	0.18	5.5
Jefferson	Savarino	RSL	957	3.31	0.26	2.11	0.26	5.5
Chris	Wondolowski	SJ	2047	1.97	0.28	1.22	0.16	5.4
Blerim	Dzemaili	MTL	935	3.39	0.23	1.95	0.21	5.4
Maximiliano	Moralez	NYC	1697	1.47	0.19	2.6	0.29	5.4
Patrick	Mullins	DC	438	3.29	0.41	0.66	0.08	5.4
Roland	Alberg	PHI	685	2.8	0.51	0.7	0.04	5.4
Soony	Saad	SKC	413	3.02	0.26	1.39	0.18	5.4
Johan	Venegas	MN	1092	2.37	0.2	1.93	0.25	5.3
Gerso	Fernandes	SKC	1806	2.55	0.28	1.38	0.12	5.3
Kevin	Doyle	COL	1598	2.58	0.3	0.9	0.09	5.3
Caleb	Calvert	COL	425	2.48	0.32	0.23	0.11	5.2
Dominique	Badji	COL	1455	1.78	0.33	0.53	0.1	5.2
Jack	Harrison	NYC	1937	1.93	0.24	1.49	0.17	5.2
Tommy	Thompson	SJ	965	2.88	0.18	1.59	0.21	5.1
Nicolas	Lodeiro	SEA	1979	1.94	0.15	2.38	0.27	5.1
Deshorn	Brown	DC	450	3.2	0.39	0.43	0.02	5.0
Sebastian	Blanco	POR	1912	2.66	0.16	1.76	0.14	5.0
Lee	Nguyen	NE	1832	1.62	0.36	3.41	0.31	5.0
Kei	Kamara	NE	1496	3.59	0.4	0.96	0.18	5.0
Romell	Quioto	HOU	752	2.17	0.27	1.28	0.28	5.0
Fredy	Montero	VAN	1573	3.3	0.54	1.22	0.11	5.0
Sebastian	Saucedo	RSL	538	3.39	0.22	1.61	0.21	4.9
Luis	Silva	RSL	1084	2.66	0.31	1.06	0.12	4.9
Luciano	Acosta	DC	1499	2.11	0.23	2.18	0.18	4.9
Albert	Rusnak	RSL	1679	2.63	0.17	3.09	0.23	4.9

Min = total minutes played
Shtp96 = shots per 96 minutes
xGp96 = expected goals per 96 minutes
KPp96 = key passes per 96 minutes
xAp96 = expected assists per 96 minutes
xOffPt = total expected offensive points

Analysis

What a surprise: David Villa is yet again projected as the #1 player for scoring offensive points.  Old news, moving on.

If he plays the full 90, Latif Blessing could be a sneaky good start with Dom Dwyer playing in the Sunshine State; he should start to outperform the stat line listed here as he gets more minutes without competition for touches from SKC’s former leading shooter (3.07 Shtp96), and at $7.4, he’s a steal.

Players on this list who have excellent bonus point production and who should be considered higher floor options this week (given they start, of course!):

• Benny Feilhaber: 1.6 BPp96 (bonus points per 96 minutes)
• Maximiliano Moralez: 1.5 BPp96
• Nicholas Lodeiro: 1.5 BPp96
• Lee Nguyen: 1.6 BPp96

For more fantasy data and insights every round, follow @MLSFantasyStats on Twitter.

Source data behind the calculations come from American Soccer Analysis.