2017 Round 24 Expected Player Offensive Points

Every week, I’ll be publishing a list of top players ranked by expected offensive points. “Offensive points” includes expected shots, goals, assists, and key passes based on the weekly matchup(s) and past performance. It also includes the 2 points the player would receive for playing 60+ minutes. Sadly, offensive bonus points (except key passes) are not included at this time.

Defensive bonus points are also not currently included because of the limitations of the data set.

The basic premise of this model

Take the chance of an event (such as an assist) happening and multiply it by the fantasy value of that event were to occur. This is what is known as the expected value, and it is one of the most common statistical methods used in the fantasy sports community to predict player value, typical or average points on a particular type of play, and player consistency.

If you’d like to read more about expected value and see more examples of its usage, feel free to check out Statistics How To’s explanation.

Please take these assumptions into mind when using this information to select players for your team:

• This model only takes offensive fantasy production into account:  no bonus points or clean sheets are included. There are plenty of good players out there who get bonus points and clean sheets who will not be on this list.
• Player are assumed to play full 96 minutes (the average length of a game) for all games played. If players are to be rotated, especially during double game weeks, their projections will not reflect that knowledge.  If players are substituted in or out for part of the game, such lack of playing time will not be reflected in these projections. The goal of these projections is to say, “If this player plays all 96 minutes, based on his past performance, how many offensive points would he be expected to get?”
• The status of players due to injuries, international call-ups, etc., is unknown to this model. Be sure to check a player’s status before adding him to your team.
• The data set is limited to those players who have played at least 400 minutes, so good players who haven’t played as much this season may not appear on this list.

With that said, let’s get into this round’s data.

Round 24 Expected Player Offensive Points

First	Last	Team	Min	Shtp96	xGp96	KPp96	xAp96	xOffPt
David	Accam	CHI	1455	2.71	0.46	2.11	0.28	13.2
Nemanja	Nikolic	CHI	1999	3.75	0.68	0.62	0.06	13.1
Ignacio	Piatti	MTL	1379	2.92	0.35	1.88	0.17	13.1
Blerim	Dzemaili	MTL	1028	3.36	0.22	2.24	0.22	12.6
Clint	Dempsey	SEA	1548	4.28	0.59	1.86	0.18	10.8
Arturo	Alvarez	CHI	595	2.26	0.13	2.26	0.31	10.1
Dominic	Oduro	MTL	1204	2.07	0.21	1.2	0.11	9.8
Michael	Salazar	MTL	408	1.18	0.09	1.88	0.23	9.5
Anthony	Jackson-Hamel	MTL	511	2.25	0.3	0.19	0.01	9.2
Luis	Solignac	CHI	1361	1.76	0.23	1.13	0.16	9.0
Matteo	Mancosu	MTL	1264	2.13	0.23	0.53	0.04	8.9
Will	Bruin	SEA	1191	2.98	0.51	1.05	0.1	8.7
Ballou	Jean-Yves Tabla	MTL	1053	2.01	0.13	0.91	0.12	8.7
David	Villa	NYC	1970	4.82	0.54	2.58	0.29	8.6
Patrick	Doody	CHI	283	0	0	2.49	0.35	8.2
Michael	de Leeuw	CHI	1582	1.34	0.16	0.91	0.16	8.0
Joao	Plata	RSL	1643	4.03	0.57	2.98	0.29	7.5
Fanendo	Adi	POR	2000	3.31	0.56	1.2	0.09	7.4
Nicolas	Lodeiro	SEA	2073	1.95	0.16	2.45	0.29	7.4
Patrice	Bernier	MTL	1150	0.83	0.04	1.75	0.1	7.3
Diego	Valeri	POR	2040	2.78	0.36	2.21	0.27	7.3
Bastian	Schweinsteiger	CHI	1612	1.01	0.07	1.67	0.13	7.2
Alan	Gordon	COL	556	2.42	0.46	1.21	0.09	6.9
Matt	Polster	CHI	1063	0.45	0.03	1.44	0.19	6.9
Fredy	Montero	VAN	1658	3.47	0.55	1.22	0.11	6.7
Chris	Duvall	MTL	1845	0.52	0.06	0.83	0.08	6.6
Jordan	Morris	SEA	1460	1.71	0.27	1.12	0.16	6.6
Calum	Mallace	MTL	322	1.49	0.07	0.6	0.02	6.4
Shkelzen	Gashi	COL	710	2.43	0.26	1.89	0.19	6.4
Daniel	Lovitz	MTL	887	0.32	0.04	1.3	0.06	6.4
Jahmir	Hyka	SJ	1551	2.04	0.24	2.6	0.27	6.3
Rodney	Wallace	NYC	1369	2.52	0.43	1.33	0.15	6.3
Dominic	Dwyer	ORL	1481	2.98	0.43	0.65	0.06	6.2
Cyle	Larin	ORL	1755	2.35	0.45	0.93	0.05	6.2
Brandon	Vincent	CHI	1801	0.75	0.03	0.85	0.12	6.1
Dax	McCarty	CHI	1591	0.54	0.05	1.03	0.1	6.1
	Juninho	CHI	1334	1.51	0.05	0.86	0.04	6.1
Carlos	Rivas	ORL	1606	3.65	0.24	1.2	0.18	6.1
Danny	Hoesen	SJ	1224	3.06	0.32	1.41	0.15	6.0
Marco	Urena	SJ	1338	2.44	0.27	1.43	0.25	6.0
Marco	Donadel	MTL	1287	1.12	0.03	0.67	0.04	6.0
Erick	Torres	HOU	1576	3.29	0.62	1.52	0.11	5.9
Mauro	Manotas	HOU	1600	3.42	0.54	1.74	0.18	5.9
Maximiliano	Moralez	NYC	1791	1.5	0.19	2.79	0.3	5.8
Kelvin	Leerdam	SEA	313	1.53	0.22	0.92	0.13	5.8
Kevin	Doyle	COL	1693	2.61	0.3	0.96	0.09	5.8
Christian	Bolanos	VAN	1326	2.03	0.21	2.68	0.28	5.8
Drew	Conner	CHI	482	0.4	0.01	1.2	0.09	5.7
Hernan	Bernardello	MTL	1372	0.49	0.02	0.84	0.05	5.7
Chris	Wondolowski	SJ	2141	2.2	0.3	1.21	0.17	5.7
Benny	Feilhaber	SKC	1805	2.02	0.23	2.66	0.29	5.7
Cristian	Techera	VAN	1558	2.46	0.27	2.03	0.21	5.7
Caleb	Calvert	COL	425	2.48	0.32	0.23	0.11	5.7
Latif	Blessing	SKC	1002	2.49	0.42	1.72	0.09	5.7
Jefferson	Savarino	RSL	1034	3.44	0.29	2.14	0.25	5.7
	Kaka	ORL	1078	1.6	0.22	1.96	0.19	5.6
Tommy	Thompson	SJ	1059	3.08	0.18	1.54	0.23	5.6
Alberth	Elis	HOU	1024	3.38	0.49	1.03	0.2	5.6
Teal	Bunbury	NE	517	3.71	0.63	1.49	0.17	5.5
Sebastian	Giovinco	TOR	1545	5.78	0.5	1.62	0.15	5.5

Note: Because of the quick turnaround this week, Round 23 data was not included in the source data, so the final results aren't taking into account 1/23 of this season's totals, an acceptable error given the amount of data we do have.
Min = total minutes played
Shtp96 = shots per 96 minutes
xGp96 = expected goals per 96 minutes
KPp96 = key passes per 96 minutes
xAp96 = expected assists per 96 minutes
xOffPt = total expected offensive points

Analysis

Another double game week, another slate of DGW players.  Must-haves this week include Piatti, Dzemaili, and Nikolic.  Accam doesn’t usually play full games, so expectations should be tempered if starting him.  Standout defenders on the offensive side of things include Doody and Duvall.

My top 5 non-DGW players this week would be, in order, Dempsey, Bruin, Lodeiro, Plata, and Valeri. Top defender would be Jones from Seattle.

Players on this list who have excellent bonus point production and who should be considered higher floor options this week (given they start, of course!):

• Dax McCarty: 2.1 BPp96 (bonus points per 96 minutes)
• Patrick Doody: 2.0 BPp96, though that’s only through 3 games, so be forewarned: small sample sizes produce notoriously variable results.
• Daniel Lovitz, Nicolas Lodeiro, Maximiliano Moralez, and Benny Feilhaber: 1.6 BPp96
• Bastian Schweinsteiger: 1.5 BPp96
• Chris Duvall: 1.4 BPp96
• Ignacio Piatti: 1.3 BPp96
• Blerim Dzemaili, Hernan Bernadello, Matt Polster, Joao Plata: 1.2 BPp96

For more fantasy data and insights every round, follow @MLSFantasyStats on Twitter.

Source data behind the calculations come from American Soccer Analysis.