2017 Week 23 xG Matchup Rankings

With unlimited transfers this season, match ups are more important than ever. The question is how to evaluate match ups, especially if you’re only an aspiring Armchair Analyst and not yet the real thing. The answer? Expected Goals (xG).

What are expected goals (xG)

The idea behind xG is simple. Every shot is awarded a probability of scoring based on the position on the field and the game situation, based on giant databases of shots from years and years of data. Then at the end of the game all the xGs from the individual shots are added up to generate the team’s xG for that game. This metric is a useful measure of the teams overall attacking or defending play, more so than just looking at how many goals a team has scored or allowed. If you’d like to learn more, there’s a nice video by MLS to explain further:

http://www.mlssoccer.com/post/2017/04/24/what-are-expected-goals-learn-what-you-need-know-about-statistic

How to use these rankings

The rankings below use the xG metric to rank the match ups each week to help you determine which teams you should try to choose your attackers or defenders from. Each teams score is an average of their xG/g and their opponent’s xG/g separated out into offense/defense and home/away match ups. For example, if Atlanta plays NYCFC at home. Atlanta has an average home xG/g is 1.62 and NYCFC’s has an average away xG/g allowed is 0.96 for an offensive xG score  of 1.29 xG. The reverse can be done to calculate their defensive score for this week. The game by game xG numbers are taken from Ben Baer’s weekly xG article.

Week 23 Offense xG Match Up Rankings

Season Offense: Match up calculated using season xG average.

Form Offense: Match up calculated using average of last 3 games.

Week 23 Rank	Team	Opponent	H/A	Season OFF	Form OFF
1	Philadelphia Union	MTL	H	1.72	2.36
2	NY Red Bulls	OCSC	H	1.63	1.7
3	Houston Dynamo	SJE	H	1.61	1.71
4	NE Revolution	VAN	H	1.75	1.52
5	NYCFC	LAG	A	1.38	1.61
6	Columbus Crew	CHI	H	1.39	1.59
7	RSL	DCU	A	1.26	1.67
8	Toronto	POR	H	1.35	1.45
9	FC Dallas	COL	H	1.36	1.42
10	Seattle Sounders	SKC	H	1.31	1.39
11	Vancouver Whitecaps FC	NER	A	1.04	1.42
12	Portland Timbers	TOR	A	1.12	1.18
13	DC United	RSL	H	1.3	0.97
14	Montreal Impact	PHI	A	1.11	1.16
15	LA Galaxy	NYCFC	H	1.11	1
16	Chicago Fire	CLB	A	1.11	0.98
17	Colorado Rapids	FCD	A	0.85	1.13
18	San Jose Earthquakes	HOU	A	0.97	1.01
19	Sporting Kansas City	SEA	A	0.92	0.94
20	Orlando City	NYRB	A	0.93	0.74

Week 23 Defense xG Match Up Rankings

Season Defense: Match up calculated using season xG average.

Form Defense: Match up calculated using average of last 3 games.

Week 23 Rank	Team	Opponent	H/A	Season DEF	Form DEF
1	NY Red Bulls	OCSC	H	0.93	0.74
2	Seattle Sounders	SKC	H	0.92	0.94
3	Houston Dynamo	SJE	H	0.97	1.01
4	FC Dallas	COL	H	0.85	1.13
5	Columbus Crew	CHI	H	1.11	0.98
6	NYCFC	LAG	A	1.11	1
7	Philadelphia Union	MTL	H	1.11	1.16
8	RSL	DCU	A	1.3	0.97
9	Toronto	POR	H	1.12	1.18
10	NE Revolution	VAN	H	1.04	1.42
11	Sporting Kansas City	SEA	A	1.31	1.39
12	Colorado Rapids	FCD	A	1.36	1.42
13	Portland Timbers	TOR	A	1.35	1.45
14	DC United	RSL	H	1.26	1.67
15	Chicago Fire	CLB	A	1.39	1.59
16	LA Galaxy	NYCFC	H	1.38	1.61
17	Vancouver Whitecaps FC	NER	A	1.75	1.52
18	San Jose Earthquakes	HOU	A	1.61	1.71
19	Orlando City	NYRB	A	1.63	1.7
20	Montreal Impact	PHI	A	1.72	2.36

Author’s Corner

1. The #1 offense this week is Philadelphia
2. The #1 defense this week is New York Red Bulls
3. The highest total xG games this week are PHI vs. MTL, NER vs. VAN, and HOU vs. SJE
4. The best chances for a clean sheet are SEA, NYRB, and FCD
5. The biggest xG differential favorites this week are NER, NYRB and HOU
6. The only away xG differential favorite is NYCFC
7. Even though FCD lost at PHI, they outscored them in xG by nearly 1 goal
8. CHI won 4-1 over NER, but had just 0.66 xG
9. SEA scored 4 goals compared to 3 xG.