2018 Round 2 Expected Points

Back for more statistics-based projections? Happy to oblige!

Unfortunately, I did not have the resources to include 2018 Round 1 scores in the model, so we are still working with 2017 data, along with the assumptions I mentioned below regarding LAFC and all the players new to MLS.

For each player in the table below, I’ve calculated expected goals & assists, shots, expected clean sheets and negative points from goals against, bonus points, and even points differentiated by position (e.g., defender gets 6 points per goal scored, forward gets 5).

Want to know more about how this model works? Click here to read the inaugural article in this series, along with an explanation of the model’s basic premise.  I’ve included a couple paragraphs below for those who are more interested in the math behind the additional calculations I’ve made to start off the new season.

TL;DR – I did some fancy things to incorporate new players and the LAFC team into the projections.

For the players new to MLS, I had to use another methodology to calculate their expected points because they have no MLS data on which we could base the calculations. So what I did was to basically take the collective knowledge of those who set the prices for the players on the Fantasy MLS website and run regressions which determine the typical average points by position and price (shout out to Erik Thulin for that idea!). Then I adjusted for whether they are playing home or away (building matchup-based statistics for the new players is much more difficult at this stage).  As with any methodology which uses less data to guess expected value, take the new players’ expected points with a grain of salt.

For those of you who were wondering how I could possibly provide projections for LAFC players, I ran a linear regression on the offensive and defensive ratings in FiveThirtyEight’s MLS projections versus the expected goals from American Soccer Analysis and extrapolated the xG values for LAFC from there.

Enough talk! Let’s project!

Round 2 Expected Player Points

Assumes each player plays 96 minutes in a game 

First	Last	Team	Pos	Pos xCS	xPt (96 min)
Josef	Martinez	ATL	F	0.00	9.3
David	Villa	NYC	F	0.00	8.9
Joao	Plata	RSL	M	0.22	8.9
Sacha	Kljestan	ORL	M	0.29	8.3
Alberth	Elis	HOU	F	0.00	8.1
Miguel	Almiron	ATL	M	0.30	7.8
Justin	Meram	ORL	M	0.29	7.6
Yoshimar	Yotun	ORL	M	0.29	7.6
Sebastian	Saucedo	RSL	M	0.22	7.5
Dominic	Dwyer	ORL	F	0.00	7.5
Lee	Nguyen	NE	M	0.32	7.4
Romell	Quioto	HOU	F	0.00	7.4
Teal	Bunbury	NE	M	0.32	7.3
Ezequiel	Barco	ATL	M	0.30	7.2
Rodney	Wallace	NYC	M	0.32	7.2
Mauro	Manotas	HOU	F	0.00	7.2
Federico	Higuain	CLB	M	0.33	7.1
Maximiliano	Moralez	NYC	M	0.32	7.0
Michael	Murillo	NYRB	D	0.59	6.9
Albert	Rusnak	RSL	M	0.22	6.8
Hector	Villalba	ATL	F	0.00	6.8
Bradley	Wright-Phillips	NYRB	F	0.00	6.7
Diego	Fagundez	NE	M	0.32	6.7
Daniel	Royer	NYRB	M	0.22	6.6
Josue	Colman	ORL	M	0.29	6.6
Jesus	Medina	NYC	M	0.32	6.6
Kaku		NYRB	M	0.22	6.6
Lalas	Abubakar	CLB	D	1.31	6.5
Tomas	Martinez	HOU	M	0.27	6.4
Jefferson	Savarino	RSL	F	0.00	6.4
Frederic	Brillant	NYC	D	1.23	6.3
Kelyn	Rowe	NE	M	0.32	6.3
Yura	Movsisyan	RSL	F	0.00	6.3
Luis	Silva	RSL	M	0.22	6.3
Leandro	Gonzalez Pirez	ATL	D	1.13	6.2
Juan	Agudelo	NE	F	0.00	6.1
Maxime	Chanot	NYC	D	1.23	6.1
Arturo	Alvarez	HOU	M	0.27	6.1
Nemanja	Nikolic	CHI	F	0.00	6.1
Diego	Valeri	POR	M	0.15	6.0
Jonathan	Mensah	CLB	D	1.31	6.0
A	Katai	CHI	M	0.23	6.0
Antonio	Mlinar Delamea	NE	D	1.25	6.0
Yangel	Herrera	NYC	M	0.32	5.9
Alex	Crognale	CLB	D	1.31	5.8
Greg	Garza	ATL	D	1.13	5.8
Niko	Hansen	CLB	M	0.33	5.8
Jack	Harrison	NYC	M	0.32	5.8
Romain	Alessandrini	LA	M	0.13	5.7
Julian	Gressel	ATL	M	0.30	5.7
Carlos	Rivas	NYRB	M	0.22	5.7
Benny	Feilhaber	LAFC	M	0.15	5.6
Graham	Zusi	SKC	D	0.83	5.6
Benjamin	Angoua	NE	D	1.25	5.6
Andrew	Wenger	HOU	M	0.27	5.6
Pedro	Santos	CLB	M	0.33	5.6
David	Guzman	POR	M	0.15	5.6
Ben	Sweat	NYC	D	1.23	5.5
Carlos	Vela	LAFC	F	0.00	5.5
Kemar	Lawrence	NYRB	D	0.59	5.4
Seb	Hines	ORL	D	1.07	5.4
Boniek	Garcia	HOU	M	0.27	5.4
Oriol	Rosell	ORL	M	0.29	5.4
Marc	Rzatkowksi	NYRB	M	0.22	5.4
Giles	Barnes	ORL	F	0.00	5.3
Yordy	Reyna	VAN	M	0.13	5.3
Diego	Rubio	SKC	F	0.00	5.3
Alex	Muyl	NYRB	M	0.22	5.2
Adolfo	Machado	HOU	D	0.93	5.2
Aaron	Long	NYRB	D	0.59	5.2
Will	Johnson	ORL	M	0.29	5.2
Jose	Aja	ORL	D	1.07	5.2
Kyle	Beckerman	RSL	M	0.22	5.1
Aurelien	Collin	NYRB	D	0.59	5.1
Alexander	Ring	NYC	M	0.32	5.1
Cristian	Higuita	ORL	M	0.29	5.1
Fanendo	Adi	POR	F	0.00	5.1
Justen	Glad	RSL	D	0.60	5.0
Yohan	Croizet	SKC	M	0.26	5.0
J	Vargas	MTL	M	0.15	5.0
Scott	Sutter	ORL	D	1.07	5.0
Jonathan	Spector	ORL	D	1.07	5.0
Andrew	Farrell	NE	D	1.25	5.0

xPt (96 min) = total expected points for this round, assuming the player plays 96 minutes in each game
Pos xCS = expected points from goals against team (expected clean sheet points + expected negative points from goals against)

Analysis

• Josef Martinez, David Villa, and Joao Plata dominate the rest of the field. Although Martinez’s xG numbers from last year are hardly sustainable, I believe he is still an excellent pick-up for this week.
• Teal Bunbury is an excellent value at $6.5. Last season, his total stats suggested he was expected to score a goal once around every other game if he played the full time, and he’s continued his ways this season starting off with a 0.4 xG outing versus Philadelphia.
• Hard to go against the Orlando offense this week with their matchup against Minnesota. Though it really is a shame both Kjlestan and Dwyer are both out for the game.

For more fantasy data and insights every round, follow @MLSFantasyStats on Twitter.

Source data behind the calculations come from American Soccer Analysis and MLS Fantasy Cheatsheet. LAFC matchup calculations were derived using FiveThirtyEight’s MLS projections.

Note: I purposefully don’t project penalties and own goals, since they are nearly impossible to predict due to their infrequency. Expected points from passes, yellow/red cards, fouls received, and saves should be in future models but either require additional data sources (which I don’t have time to tie in yet) or deeper analysis (which I don’t have time to perform yet).