MLS Fantasy Boss A Fantasy MLS Community
By: The Fantasy Physician
Weeks 4 and 5 Big Question – When Do I Look for Blue Chip Quality…and When Do I Look Elsewhere?
My son and I first started playing fantasy soccer more than a decade ago. In the beginning, one of our main strategies was this: put the players with the highest averages we can on the field at each position. Isn’t the best predictor of performance in the metric in question – fantasy points – recent reproducible past performance as measured by the metric in question? Of course, there is more to fantasy than just this (or I would have to stop the article series there and maybe wouldn’t enjoy these games so much), but any potential different strategy must answer the question, “Why is that better than just putting out the players with the highest averages?”
Kickbase scoring adds another dimension to choosing top players. That system gives a bonus of 15 points for players on teams that win and subtracts 15 points for players on teams that lose. Those are considerable contributors to player averages and naturally make us want to take the top players on top teams, in good matchups especially.
So obviously, we want to know who those players are. It just so happens that many of those players will be involved in CONCACAF Champions League matches in the weeks before matchdays 4 and 5. Will that matter?
Who Are the Top Players After the First Three Matchweeks?
Let’s start by looking at the 25 best players (using the Kickbase scoring system) after the first three Matchweeks. This first table shows the players with the highest point totals, ranked by their per game average (almost all 3 matches, Sam Surridge played in 2):
(highlights key: tan teams having losing record, yellow – caution taking this player as may see limited minutes or may see upside limited by fatigue , red – do not take this player, almost certainly out, green – likely limited or no impact of CCC duty)
All but 3 of the top 25 players in 2026 (exceptions in tan highlight) are playing on teams with winning records; they are good players on successful teams. In general, you want to take high average players on good teams, and I can safely predict that many of the players on this list will see Kickbase managers lineups again and again throughout 2026. Taking them when they look likely to win matters a lot; the difference between winning and losing is a spread of up to 20% on top players’ averages.
However…
Successful teams qualify to play in continental competitions, and while a characteristic of MLS is more variability in individual team results year to year than is seen in other leagues, the group of 9 teams that qualified for CONCACAF Champions Cup (CCC) in 2026 based on their 2025 performance are off to a strong start in MLS in 2026, with a collective record across the first 3 matches of 17-8-2 or 1.96 points per game. That’s performance at the level of Supporters Shield winners. A problem comes into focus then. These 9 teams all played in the middle of the week before Matchday 4 and will do so again in the week before Matchday 5. Over this 15 day period most MLS teams will play 3 matches; the 9 CCC teams will play 5. All that extra mileage may limit some of their players’ upsides in the two weeks ahead; many of those players are the most desirable in the game. Furthermore, their teams may find it harder to win in the next two match weeks.
Now any consumer of statistics worth her salt will look take averages calculated on an N of 3 matches with – well – a grain of salt. Let’s turn our eyes towards another chart – similarly constructed but with the list showing the top 25 players results from 2025 (eliminating players with limited total minutes and players no longer in MLS).
(highlights: mint green on right – also in top 25 in 2026, tan highlight in center – players on “losing” teams, ie under 1.5ppg and mostly non-playoff, yellow on right – caution in taking in next two weeks, red – do not take, green – no impediments likely from CONCACAF duties)
The names highlighted in mint green on the left appear on last years’ list and also the Top 25 from 2026. It’s safe to say you are going to count on them a lot in 2026.
Some key observations and recommendations from these two charts going into Weeks 4 and 5
- In general, take players with high averages on good teams. Compared to other platforms (eg Sofascore, legacy FMLS), the “good teams” part of this recommendation is way more important because Kickbase rewards players on winning teams and punishes those on losing teams.
- There are still excellent choices on other teams; it makes sense to consider them when when their matchups are favorable and/or when top players’ prospects are diminished, in this case based on likely (but not certain) impacts of midweek CONCACAF duty.
- Notice how few defenders and goalkeepers appear on the full season Top 25 from 2025. At this point, I would recommend formations that take the minimum number of goalkeepers (1) and the minimum number of defenders (3) when you have a choice in the matter. I would focus on captaining midfielders and forwards in competitions with captains. Jury is still out on best formation distribution for forwards and midfielders, but they should probably sum to 7. The over-representation of goalkeepers in the first few 3 weeks in each case is the result of 3 straight clean sheets. Defenders on that list almost all have either 3 clean sheets or multiple goal contributions ie not sustainable performance.
- The impacts of CONCACAF duty are likely to be felt more in week 5 than in week 4. The results from this past week require interpretation. Let’s consider them team by team:
–Philadelphia: Having gutted chance creation in their roster since 2025, they are off to a 0-0-3 start. They lost 1-0 to Club America in the first leg of CCC round of 16, so while their chances are slim going into the second leg, they are not too slim to consider abandoning effort there. Between limited good choices and that fact, I am fading Philadelphia in MLS Weeks 4 and 5.
–Cincinnati: Another team off to a slow start. Evander is still coming back from injury. Their impressive 3-0 win over Tigres will give them confidence going into the second leg of CCC round of 16 but they know not to underestimate the challenge of holding on to that lead in Mexico. I expect they will rotate to maximize their chances of holding on through the second leg. I am also fading Cincinnati.
–LAFC: I expected them to do better against Costa Rican side Alajuelense in leg 1. They tied 1-1. Although LAFC are still favored, they cannot phone it in next week in Costa Rica. They have plenty of capable replacements for injured Stephen Eustaquio, but I expect rotation at many positions. I still like Hugo Lloris, Eddie Segura, Mark Delgado, David Martinez, and Denis Bouanga; I prefer them in Week 4 at home vs St. Louis over Week 5 away to Austin.
–Miami and Nashville: 0-0 high energy draw in leg 1. Great teams with great fantasy choices. Both will be under pressure to focus on their CCC fixture between weeks 4 and 5. I will take Messi with trepidation but will likely not captain him. It’s still not wrong to captain him. I like Nashville’s matchups (Columbus away week 4, Orlando at home week 5). I will fade them week 4 and if the second fixture in CCC is a death-struggle or goes to extra time, I might still fade against Orlando in week 5.
–Los Angeles Galaxy: Of all the CCC clubs, the pressure seems lowest on the Galaxy after a 3-0 win in leg 1 against Mt. Pleasant, but Galaxy’s shaky performance (despite the scoreline) at home vs a Jamaican side missing 10 players with visa issues still may make them nervous. Gabriel Pec will miss the home tie against Sporting Kansas City because of a red card against Colorado in Week 3. Although likely to figure in Jamaica, I would still consider him against a leaky Portland Timbers defense in Week 5. He is one of the standouts from 2025 despite playing on a bad team and not having that many goal contributions. Why? His liberal shot-taking props up his floor. Marco Reus did not play in the first CCC leg and does not need to travel to Jamaica; he is a choice in either MLS match, though I would favor Week 4 against SKC. I also like Galaxy defenders against Sporting Kansas City: Jakob Glesnes, Julian Aude, and Miki Yamane all solid choices. Galaxy have only given up 1 goal when playing with 11 men on the field so far in 2026.
–San Diego FC: San Diego played brilliantly against top Mexican side Toluca in CCC leg 1, winning 3-2 after going down to 10 men and a 1-0 deficit after Marcus Ingvartsen was sent off in leg 1. He won’t figure in leg 2, so of all SD players, I favor him most. That said, it was a grueling if exhilarating match for this charmed side. They believe themselves to be a team of destiny and have a lot to play for in Toluca. They also believe in their extensive roster. It’s hard to imagine they will not rotate in their MLS matches. I would not be surprised if Kickbase standouts Anders Dreyer or Jeppe Tverskov start MLS matches from the bench and see the field if their team’s need them; that has me worried about taking them.
–Seattle and Vancouver: Seattle shocked Vancouver in leg 1 of CCC, beating them 3-0 at BMO field. Is Vancouver ready to abandon CCC and just focus on MLS? Nah. Like San Diego, they see themselves as a “team of destiny” and also believe in their subs. Last year Vancouver bench players did quite well in MLS fixtures between CCC matches, and I expect heavy rotation by Vancouver in week 4 to give themselves a fighting chance against Seattle in leg 2. If they leave it all on the field in the second leg, MLS week 5 might see heavy rotation as well. If Seattle manager Brian Schmetzer sees this as I see it, he too may rotate in MLS to preserve what looks like it could be a big win in CCC. I am thinking of – gulp – fading both of these teams in week 4 and judging situations after the CCC second leg in week 5.
Kickbase punishes managers more for taking players who do not start or do not play (see last week’s article) because there are no rolling lockouts. Don’t be afraid to look beyond the players with top averages in Weeks 4 and 5, but you do need to know who those players are.
The “Fantasy Physician” is Ron Birnbaum, @Half Century City on Discord
The “Fantasy Therapist” is Mike Leister, @Kenobi on Discord
The “Fantasy Meteorologist” is Asher Malaschak, @Storminator on Discord
The “Fantasy Gastroenterologist” is Christian Ward, @xward on Discord
