Behind the Numbers: MLS Fantasy Week 13

Behind the Numbers

Week 12 Recap

When all the dust and glitches settled, the Behind the Numbers Team mostly just managed to tread water this week. 145 points on the week as only good enough to fall 20 placed in the rankings to 174 overall and not gain or lose any team value. Thankfully, I came to my senses before game time and Captained Vela. However, MLS rotation and injuries struck with week with Elis, Atuesta, and Figueroa all not really playing a second game, and Pozuelo getting a red card. With only three weeks left in the spring season. It might be time to go big or go home.

Week 13 DGW Team Defense Rankings

Total Budget this Week: $126.8

Goalkeepers

With two DGW keepers, it makes sense to take a long hard look at Crepeau and Robles. They’re even on bonus points on the year, neither doing anything spectacular. NYRB has the better matchups though in my opinion, so I’m looking primarily at Robles.

Defenders

Again, NYRB and VAN should be near the top of your list. Both have some good options, though NYRB is certainly a confusing mess. Parker is on a red card and Long is questionable. Of the remaining options, Tarek and Murillo offer the best bonus point production, but rotation risk is a major concern.

From VAN, you’ve got the three popular choices Godoy and Henry who are solid bonus point producers and fairly protected against rotation. The other “offensive” option is Adnan who always seems to be the darling of the rankings, but never really produces.

LAFC is near the top of every list all the time this year. Segura is likely your best bet.

CHI vs. NYC and TOR vs SJE both worry me a little bit for the home teams. Neither of them is that consistent defensively and NYC and SJE are both ascending.

PHI is a solid and consistent team, with Captain Jack a personal favorite

Week 13 DGW Team Offense Rankings

Week 13 Top 50 Player Projections

Note: Player projections extrapolate previous stats and matchup data for the current player and match up assuming that player plays the full 90 (SGW) or 180 (DGW). It does not factor in the probability of a player starting or being rotated during a DGW.

Midfielders/Forwards

In the attack, there’s a variety of options without any clear favorites outside of Vela.

From NYRB, Rzatkowksi is about as solid as they come for point and bonus point production. With the rest of NYRB being a rotating cast of characters, he seems locked in. Royer, who either seems to explode or do nothing is always a good shout for a bench option.

On the Vancouver side, the options are generally unremarkable. Hwang and Teibert seem to be the most consistent producers as of late. Along the forward line, its Fredy Montero or bust.

SKC is simply too injured to be depending on despite the favorable matchup. Pozuel being out for TOR really puts a damper on things, even with Altidore probably returning.

LAFC and PHI round out the top 5. With Atuesta injured, likely we’ll look to Kaye to provide some points. On the PHI side, I think Monteiro has done more than enough to earn our trust.

The rest of the options are a hodgepodge of matchups, so we’re just looking for good solid players. For this, I use the xG + xA/96 rankings. The points us towards guys like Manotas, Quintero, Josef, Rooney, Katai, and Nani. Mostly a pick your preference situation this week.

2019 Week 13 BTN Team

Here’s my first draft based on the discussion above.

If you’d like to follow me on twitter, I’m @MLSFB_BTN. I typically post my updated lineup on Friday nights before the games start to show if my thinking has changed since this column went up.

Resources for nerding out about MLS Fantasy

  • http://www.mlscheatsheet.com/ — Bonus point data, projections and more
  • https://www.americansocceranalysis.com/asa-xgoals — Interactive xG and passing data
  • https://www.whoscored.com/ — Analytics based player ratings

About Kyle Mcelhinny

Scientist by day, soccer fan by night. Nerd always. Using stats to overcome my lack of knowledge about the beautiful game.

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