Draft analysis – Week 1 – Ceiling vs Consistency

MVP of the week – Adi, 16 points – Two goals in stoppage time saved him but Portland’s attack looks extremely dangerous and Adi should be in the running for golden boot.

Bonus point monster of the week – Godoy, 7 bonus points – I don’t think 7 BP is sustainable, he earned 2 foul bonus and got significantly more recoveries than he averaged last year.

Waiver Wire line of the week – Godoy, 15 total points -Godoy should be owned in all leagues with 6 or more teams. I had him ranked as 5th round value going into the season and I think his upside is closer to late second round value similar to Michael Bradley.

Dud of the week – Giovinco, 1 point – A missed penalty resulted in a 7 point swing for the best player in fantasy. I’ll be surprised if he pops up as the dud of the week again this season.

Ceiling vs Consistency

The majority of people playing draft fantasy came over from the season long game. As a result, they carry some player biases with them. One such bias is picking players who have a high ceiling, while ignoring the fact they have a low floor. The flip side is that they ignore more consistent players. The median score in fantasy is 4 points. Any score less than 4 hurts your chances of winning your head to head. Any score more than 4 helps you. The table below shows how likely a player was to help your score vs hurt your score last season. In the last column, any score above 1 means they were more likely to help you than hurt you and any score less than 1 means they were more likely to hurt than help.

web_name	2016 position	2016 team	ppstart	% help	% hurt	Ratio of help vs hurt
Alonso	MID	SEA	6.3	0.88	0.03	28
Lodeiro	MID	SEA	8.3	0.92	0.08	11
Giovinco	FWD	TOR	9.4	0.7	0.07	9.5
Bradley	MID	TOR	5.9	0.71	0.08	8.5
Williams	DEF	COL	5.5	0.8	0.13	6
Valeri	MID	POR	7.4	0.7	0.13	5.3
McCarty	MID	NY	5.8	0.56	0.12	4.7
MacMath	GKP	COL	5.1	0.47	0.12	4
Feilhaber	MID	SKC	6.7	0.71	0.18	4
Azira	MID	COL	4.7	0.56	0.15	3.8
Kljestan	MID	NY	7.4	0.63	0.17	3.8
Hairston	DEF	COL	6.9	0.77	0.23	3.3
Díaz	MID	DAL	7.5	0.75	0.25	3
Gashi	FWD	COL	6.2	0.56	0.2	2.8
Morales	MID	RSL	5.5	0.48	0.17	2.8
Lletget	MID	LA	5	0.61	0.26	2.3
Perquis	DEF	TOR	4.8	0.64	0.27	2.3
Piatti	MID	MTL	7.5	0.61	0.29	2.1
Molino	MID	ORL	6.6	0.6	0.28	2.1
Sarvas	MID	DC	5.2	0.56	0.28	2
Alex	MID	HOU	4.8	0.57	0.29	2
Husidic	MID	LA	4.4	0.47	0.24	2
Villa	FWD	NYC	7.6	0.56	0.28	2
Kaká	MID	ORL	7.5	0.55	0.27	2
Nagbe	MID	POR	5.2	0.44	0.22	2
Phillips	DEF	RSL	5	0.52	0.26	2
Bolaños	MID	VAN	5.5	0.58	0.29	2
Howard	GKP	COL	5.5	0.59	0.29	2
Afful	DEF	CLB	5.6	0.52	0.28	1.9
Rowe	GKP	LA	5.4	0.55	0.29	1.9
Burling	DEF	COL	4.9	0.56	0.31	1.8
Powers	MID	COL	4.5	0.38	0.21	1.8
dos Santos	FWD	LA	6.8	0.54	0.31	1.8
Yaro	DEF	PHI	4.4	0.54	0.31	1.8
Johnson	MID	TOR	5	0.5	0.28	1.8
Sjoberg	DEF	COL	5.3	0.55	0.32	1.7
O. Kamara	FWD	CLB	7.4	0.6	0.35	1.7
Matarrita	DEF	NYC	5.4	0.57	0.33	1.7
Zubar	DEF	NY	4.9	0.56	0.33	1.7
Creavalle	MID	PHI	4.3	0.5	0.3	1.7
Glad	DEF	RSL	4.7	0.52	0.3	1.7
Godoy	MID	SJ	4.9	0.45	0.27	1.7
Lampson	GKP	CHI	5.3	0.45	0.27	1.7
Nyarko	MID	DC	6	0.52	0.33	1.6
Hedges	DEF	DAL	5.2	0.5	0.31	1.6
Nguyen	MID	NE	5.5	0.48	0.3	1.6
Wright-Phillips	FWD	NY	6.9	0.59	0.38	1.6
Altidore	FWD	TOR	5.8	0.53	0.33	1.6
Higuaín	MID	CLB	5.7	0.5	0.33	1.5
Agudelo	FWD	NE	5.3	0.56	0.38	1.5
Bono	GKP	TOR	4.9	0.4	0.27	1.5
Morrow	DEF	TOR	5.5	0.57	0.37	1.5
Mendoza	FWD	NYC	4.6	0.55	0.36	1.5
Accam	MID	CHI	6.3	0.55	0.4	1.4
Harris	DEF	DAL	4.9	0.52	0.38	1.4
Zimmerman	DEF	DAL	5.6	0.43	0.3	1.4
B Garcia	MID	HOU	4.9	0.52	0.36	1.4
Allen	DEF	NYC	5.1	0.53	0.37	1.4
Saunders	GKP	NYC	4.5	0.52	0.36	1.4
Plata	FWD	RSL	5.9	0.54	0.39	1.4
Laba	MID	VAN	4.3	0.45	0.32	1.4
Goossens	MID	CHI	4.7	0.54	0.38	1.4
Naess	DEF	CLB	5.1	0.54	0.38	1.4
Meram	MID	CLB	5.9	0.45	0.35	1.3
Saied	MID	CLB	4.5	0.38	0.29	1.3
Kemp	DEF	DC	5	0.5	0.4	1.3
Harrison	MID	NYC	5.6	0.47	0.35	1.3
Sam	MID	NY	5.7	0.5	0.38	1.3
Dawkins	MID	SJ	4.5	0.52	0.41	1.3
Evans	DEF	SEA	4.6	0.45	0.35	1.3
de Leeuw	FWD	CHI	5.1	0.56	0.44	1.3
Neagle	MID	DC	5.6	0.48	0.38	1.2
Brillant	DEF	NYC	4.7	0.48	0.42	1.2
Pirlo	MID	NYC	5.1	0.5	0.41	1.2
Felipe	MID	NY	5.1	0.48	0.39	1.2
Lade	DEF	NY	4.5	0.47	0.4	1.2
Larin	FWD	ORL	5.4	0.54	0.46	1.2
Medranda	MID	SKC	4.5	0.32	0.27	1.2
Ramos	DEF	CHI	4.6	0.5	0.44	1.1
Burch	DEF	COL	4.6	0.44	0.41	1.1
Figueroa	DEF	DAL	4.4	0.48	0.44	1.1
Seitz	GKP	DAL	4.8	0.39	0.36	1.1
Ciman	DEF	MTL	4.4	0.39	0.36	1.1
Duvall	DEF	NY	4.7	0.5	0.45	1.1
Bernardez	DEF	SJ	4.5	0.44	0.41	1.1
Marshall	DEF	SEA	4.9	0.47	0.43	1.1
Waston	DEF	VAN	4.4	0.5	0.46	1.1
Alvarez	MID	CHI	5	0.5	0.45	1.1
Campbell	DEF	CHI	4.4	0.42	0.42	1
Polster	MID	CHI	4.3	0.36	0.36	1
Badji	FWD	COL	4.6	0.44	0.44	1
Tchani	MID	CLB	4.3	0.35	0.35	1
Trapp	MID	CLB	4	0.36	0.36	1
Willis	GKP	HOU	4.7	0.36	0.36	1
Cabrera	DEF	MTL	4.6	0.4	0.4	1
Rogers	DEF	LA	4.8	0.5	0.5	1
Rowe	MID	NE	5.1	0.45	0.45	1
Mullins	FWD	NYC	5.9	0.5	0.5	1
Davis	MID	NY	5.3	0.33	0.33	1
Muyl	MID	NY	4.3	0.39	0.39	1
Collin	DEF	ORL	4.9	0.48	0.48	1
Blake	GKP	PHI	4.4	0.41	0.41	1
Herbers	FWD	PHI	3.8	0.46	0.46	1
Wondolowski	FWD	SJ	5	0.5	0.5	1
Espinoza	MID	SKC	4.3	0.47	0.47	1
Mustivar	MID	SKC	4	0.36	0.36	1
Opara	DEF	SKC	4.8	0.47	0.47	1
Irwin	GKP	TOR	4.6	0.42	0.42	1
Moor	DEF	TOR	5.1	0.47	0.47	1
Osorio	MID	TOR	4.7	0.37	0.37	1
Watson	DEF	NE	4.6	0.5	0.5	1
Birnbaum	DEF	DC	4.7	0.46	0.5	0.9
Hamid	GKP	DC	4.8	0.4	0.45	0.9
Worra	GKP	DC	4.5	0.46	0.54	0.9
Urruti	FWD	DAL	5.1	0.46	0.54	0.9
Beasley	DEF	HOU	4.8	0.48	0.52	0.9
Zardes	FWD	LA	5.3	0.44	0.5	0.9
McNamara	MID	NYC	4.7	0.44	0.48	0.9
Mena	DEF	NYC	4.9	0.43	0.5	0.9
Grella	MID	NY	4.7	0.41	0.48	0.9
Robles	GKP	NY	4.9	0.35	0.38	0.9
Higuita	MID	ORL	4.2	0.35	0.41	0.9
Pontius	MID	PHI	5.2	0.47	0.5	0.9
Adi	FWD	POR	4.7	0.47	0.5	0.9
Chara	MID	POR	4.1	0.34	0.38	0.9
Gleeson	GKP	POR	4.4	0.37	0.41	0.9
Bingham	GKP	SJ	4.7	0.42	0.45	0.9
Besler	DEF	SKC	4.8	0.35	0.41	0.9
Techera	MID	VAN	3.7	0.44	0.5	0.9
Johnson	GKP	CHI	4.1	0.32	0.41	0.8
Meira	DEF	CHI	4	0.36	0.48	0.8
Watts	DEF	COL	4.6	0.39	0.5	0.8
Jimenez	DEF	CLB	3.9	0.43	0.57	0.8
Barrios	MID	DAL	4.8	0.38	0.45	0.8
Hollingshead	MID	DAL	4.2	0.38	0.48	0.8
Clark	MID	HOU	4.1	0.38	0.48	0.8
Horst	DEF	HOU	4.3	0.44	0.56	0.8
Steres	DEF	LA	4.5	0.33	0.43	0.8
Van Damme	DEF	LA	4.4	0.33	0.44	0.8
Tierney	DEF	NE	4.6	0.38	0.46	0.8
Iraola	DEF	NYC	4.3	0.38	0.5	0.8
Hines	DEF	ORL	4.1	0.36	0.45	0.8
Ramos	DEF	ORL	4.3	0.36	0.45	0.8
Le Toux	MID	PHI	4.5	0.43	0.52	0.8
Powell	DEF	POR	4.1	0.39	0.48	0.8
Movsisyan	FWD	RSL	4.7	0.42	0.5	0.8
Rimando	GKP	RSL	4.5	0.33	0.4	0.8
Dempsey	FWD	SEA	5.3	0.31	0.38	0.8
Frei	GKP	SEA	4.5	0.36	0.45	0.8
Olum	MID	SKC	4.2	0.29	0.35	0.8
Zusi	MID	SKC	4.9	0.41	0.53	0.8
Manneh	FWD	VAN	5.3	0.45	0.55	0.8
Cronin	MID	COL	4	0.3	0.42	0.7
Miller	DEF	COL	3.8	0.35	0.52	0.7
Finlay	MID	CLB	4.9	0.38	0.58	0.7
Franklin	DEF	DC	4.1	0.37	0.56	0.7
Castillo	MID	DAL	5.4	0.4	0.55	0.7
Anibaba	DEF	HOU	3.9	0.38	0.52	0.7
Bush	GKP	MTL	4.1	0.33	0.48	0.7
Oyongo	DEF	MTL	4.2	0.42	0.58	0.7
Shelton	FWD	NYC	5.1	0.42	0.58	0.7
Cato	MID	SJ	4.1	0.33	0.47	0.7
Perez Garcia	MID	SJ	4.3	0.32	0.42	0.7
Morris	FWD	SEA	4.8	0.41	0.56	0.7
Roldan	MID	SEA	4.5	0.31	0.45	0.7
Abdul-Salaam	DEF	SKC	4	0.38	0.54	0.7
Dwyer	FWD	SKC	5.4	0.39	0.55	0.7
Beitashour	DEF	TOR	4.1	0.41	0.59	0.7
Mezquida	MID	VAN	4.5	0.35	0.47	0.7
Tribbett	DEF	PHI	4.1	0.33	0.5	0.7
Vincent	DEF	CHI	3.5	0.33	0.58	0.6
K. Kamara	FWD	CLB	5	0.37	0.6	0.6
Parkhurst	DEF	CLB	3.9	0.35	0.62	0.6
Boswell	DEF	DC	4.3	0.34	0.55	0.6
Acosta	MID	DAL	4.4	0.28	0.48	0.6
Barnes	FWD	HOU	4.6	0.35	0.6	0.6
Camara	DEF	MTL	4.1	0.36	0.6	0.6
Donadel	MID	MTL	4.1	0.29	0.47	0.6
Oduro	FWD	MTL	4.5	0.38	0.62	0.6
Ontivero	MID	MTL	3.7	0.33	0.58	0.6
DeLaGarza	DEF	LA	4.1	0.35	0.57	0.6
Larentowicz	MID	LA	3.9	0.29	0.53	0.6
Fagundez	MID	NE	4.8	0.36	0.56	0.6
Farrell	DEF	NE	4.1	0.31	0.5	0.6
Ceren	MID	ORL	3.7	0.3	0.48	0.6
Borchers	DEF	POR	4	0.3	0.5	0.6
Valentin	DEF	POR	3.8	0.28	0.5	0.6
Beltran	DEF	RSL	3.5	0.37	0.63	0.6
Mulholland	MID	RSL	4.3	0.39	0.61	0.6
Wynne	DEF	SJ	4.1	0.32	0.55	0.6
Mears	DEF	SEA	3.7	0.35	0.55	0.6
Delgado	MID	TOR	3.8	0.27	0.45	0.6
Hamilton	FWD	TOR	3.8	0.36	0.64	0.6
Ousted	GKP	VAN	4.3	0.33	0.52	0.6
Smith	DEF	VAN	3.4	0.36	0.57	0.6
Solignac	FWD	COL	3.7	0.33	0.67	0.5
Francis	DEF	CLB	3.5	0.31	0.62	0.5
Wahl	DEF	CLB	3.5	0.33	0.67	0.5
Acosta	FWD	DC	4.5	0.32	0.6	0.5
Gruezo	MID	DAL	3.6	0.19	0.42	0.5
Toia	DEF	MTL	4	0.29	0.57	0.5
Boateng	FWD	LA	4.3	0.29	0.59	0.5
Cole	DEF	LA	3.6	0.32	0.6	0.5
Caldwell	MID	NE	3.8	0.26	0.55	0.5
Shuttleworth	GKP	NE	4.2	0.3	0.6	0.5
Woodberry	DEF	NE	3.7	0.3	0.57	0.5
Zizzo	DEF	NY	3.9	0.33	0.67	0.5
Bendik	GKP	ORL	4	0.26	0.56	0.5
Carrasco	MID	ORL	3.9	0.23	0.45	0.5
Shea	DEF	ORL	3.1	0.32	0.64	0.5
Beckerman	MID	RSL	3.8	0.27	0.5	0.5
Maund	DEF	RSL	3.6	0.32	0.58	0.5
Melia	GKP	SKC	4.2	0.3	0.59	0.5
Igboananike	FWD	CHI	4	0.3	0.7	0.4
K Doyle	FWD	COL	4	0.25	0.63	0.4
Ulloa	MID	DAL	3.7	0.19	0.44	0.4
Alexander	MID	MTL	3.6	0.13	0.33	0.4
Shipp	MID	MTL	3.4	0.3	0.7	0.4
Goncalves	DEF	NE	3.5	0.29	0.71	0.4
Knighton	GKP	NE	3.5	0.23	0.54	0.4
Jacobson	MID	VAN	3.7	0.21	0.47	0.4
Lawrence	DEF	NY	3.4	0.25	0.7	0.4
Alberg	MID	PHI	4.8	0.31	0.69	0.4
Fabinho	DEF	PHI	4.3	0.29	0.71	0.4
Rosenberry	DEF	PHI	3.7	0.26	0.65	0.4
Sapong	FWD	PHI	4.1	0.25	0.61	0.4
Melano	FWD	POR	3.9	0.27	0.62	0.4
Sunny	MID	RSL	3.6	0.23	0.54	0.4
Amarikwa	FWD	SJ	3.8	0.25	0.7	0.4
Jones	DEF	SEA	3.8	0.28	0.62	0.4
Peterson	MID	SKC	4.2	0.28	0.67	0.4
Zavaleta	DEF	TOR	3.9	0.29	0.64	0.4
Hurtado	MID	VAN	3.7	0.31	0.69	0.4
Parker	DEF	VAN	3.5	0.25	0.61	0.4
Endoh	MID	TOR	3.8	0.27	0.67	0.4
Harrington	DEF	CHI	2.7	0.21	0.79	0.3
Kappelhof	DEF	CHI	3.5	0.23	0.65	0.3
Jeffrey	MID	DC	3.4	0.14	0.5	0.3
Akindele	FWD	DAL	4.1	0.21	0.71	0.3
Bruin	FWD	HOU	3.8	0.22	0.78	0.3
S Williams	DEF	HOU	2.9	0.25	0.75	0.3
Wenger	MID	HOU	4	0.22	0.65	0.3
Mateos	DEF	ORL	3.3	0.2	0.75	0.3
Carroll	MID	PHI	3.2	0.18	0.68	0.3
Ridgewell	DEF	POR	3.7	0.23	0.68	0.3
J Taylor	DEF	POR	3.8	0.19	0.57	0.3
Francis	DEF	SJ	3	0.18	0.71	0.3
Hallisey	MID	SKC	3.1	0.17	0.67	0.3
Harvey	DEF	VAN	3.8	0.25	0.71	0.3
DeLeon	MID	DC	3.3	0.15	0.63	0.2
Vincent	MID	DC	3.3	0.15	0.62	0.2
Bunbury	MID	NE	3.1	0.16	0.74	0.2
Alston	DEF	ORL	2.4	0.14	0.82	0.2
Nocerino	MID	ORL	2.7	0.17	0.72	0.2
Redding	DEF	ORL	2.5	0.13	0.73	0.2
Marquez	DEF	PHI	3.5	0.18	0.76	0.2
Zemanski	MID	POR	3.3	0.09	0.55	0.2
Alashe	MID	SJ	3.4	0.15	0.62	0.2
Mattocks	FWD	POR	3.4	0.18	0.73	0.2
Ilsinho	MID	PHI	3.7	0.14	0.64	0.2
Bernier	MID	MTL	2.7	0.07	0.86	0.1
Wingert	DEF	RSL	2.1	0.05	0.89	0.1
Sarkodie	DEF	SJ	3	0.08	0.83	0.1
Bernardello	MID	MTL	3.3	0.09	0.82	0.1
Warner	MID	HOU	3.1	0	0.57	0

Alonso comes in first place and it isn’t close. He had just one game where he hurt you last year. His ceiling isn’t high, but his floor is stellar. Lodeiro and Giovinco come in second and third. They have both great ceilings and great floors and were absolutely worthy of being picked first and second. You’ll notice there’s a lot of defensive midfielders with positive ratios. They are criminally undervalued in draft. There’s several sitting on waver wires in my leagues that I would happily own.

Trading up

There’s not a lot of forwards with good help/hurt ratios, so we can be more lenient with forwards who have bad help/hurt ratios. However, we can be more choosey with midfielders. Any midfielder with a ratio less than 1 should be traded. Guys like Pontius, Barrios, and Finlay should be shopped because their perceived value is much higher than their actual value. Try to package them with your best forward for Giovinco/Villa/dos Santos and their worst mid. Their worst mid might be someone like Sarvas or Powers, who are upgrades for you to begin with. Even if their worst mid is a complete dud, chances are you can grab a good one off the wire anyway.