2017 Round 20 Expected Player Offensive Points

Every week, I’ll be publishing a top 50 list of players ranked by expected offensive points. “Offensive points” includes expected shots, goals, assists, and key passes based on the weekly matchup(s) and past performance. It also includes the 2 points the player would receive for playing 60+ minutes. Sadly, offensive bonus points (except key passes) are not included at this time.

Defensive bonus points are also not currently included because of the limitations of the data set.

The basic premise of this model

Take the chance of an event (such as an assist) happening and multiply it by the fantasy value of that event were to occur. This is what is known as the expected value, and it is one of the most common statistical methods used in the fantasy sports community to predict player value, typical or average points on a particular type of play, and player consistency.

If you’d like to read more about expected value and see more examples of its usage, feel free to check out Statistics How To’s explanation.

Please take these assumptions into mind when using this information to select players for your team:

• This model only takes offensive fantasy production into account:  no bonus points or clean sheets are included. There are plenty of good players out there who get bonus points and clean sheets who will not be on this list.
• Player are assumed to play full 96 minutes (the average length of a game) for all games played. If players are to be rotated, especially during double game weeks, their projections will not reflect that knowledge.  If players are substituted in or out for part of the game, such lack of playing time will not be reflected in these projections. The goal of these projections is to say, “If this player plays all 96 minutes, based on his past performance, how many offensive points would he be expected to get?”
• The status of players due to injuries, international call-ups, etc., is unknown to this model. Be sure to check a player’s status before adding him to your team.
• The data set is limited to those players who have played at least 400 minutes, so good players who haven’t played as much this season may not appear on this list.

With that said, let’s get into this round’s data.

Round 20 Expected Player Offensive Points

First Name	Last Name	Team	Min	Shtp96	xGp96	KPp96	xAp96	xPoints
Clint	Dempsey	SEA	1359	4.24	0.54	1.77	0.17	15.4
David	Villa	NYC	1609	4.71	0.53	2.51	0.27	14.5
Fanendo	Adi	POR	1810	3.5	0.59	1.22	0.09	14.0
Will	Bruin	SEA	859	3.02	0.57	1.01	0.1	13.8
Erick	Torres	HOU	1483	3.43	0.65	1.42	0.11	13.7
Diego	Valeri	POR	1650	2.91	0.41	2.21	0.29	13.7
Alberth	Elis	HOU	935	3.39	0.48	1.13	0.22	12.5
Kevin	Molino	MN	1561	2.09	0.39	1.6	0.18	12.6
Bradley	Wright-Phillips	NYRB	1588	3.08	0.5	1.09	0.12	12.1
Sebastian	Giovinco	TOR	1220	5.51	0.49	1.42	0.16	11.9
Mauro	Manotas	HOU	1257	3.13	0.44	1.76	0.17	11.7
Nicolas	Lodeiro	SEA	1795	2.03	0.17	2.19	0.28	11.5
Romain	Alessandrini	LA	1484	3.62	0.32	2.2	0.26	11.4
Rodney	Wallace	NYC	1369	2.52	0.43	1.33	0.15	11.4
Blerim	Dzemaili	MTL	650	3.69	0.24	2.51	0.28	11.3
Christian	Ramirez	MN	1707	2.47	0.44	0.39	0.03	11.2
Jozy	Altidore	TOR	1427	2.96	0.53	1.55	0.16	11.2
Fredy	Montero	VAN	1322	3.34	0.52	1.16	0.11	11.2
Fredrik	Gulbrandsen	NYRB	404	3.09	0.33	0.95	0.26	11.1
Giovani	dos Santos	LA	1091	2.55	0.43	1.76	0.18	11.1
Ignacio	Piatti	MTL	1223	2.83	0.32	1.81	0.18	11.0
Johan	Venegas	MN	1059	2.36	0.2	1.9	0.25	10.5
Joao	Plata	RSL	1270	3.4	0.46	2.65	0.26	10.4
Romell	Quioto	HOU	719	2.14	0.28	1.2	0.28	10.4
Daniel	Royer	NYRB	1403	2.19	0.39	0.75	0.09	10.3
Jack	Harrison	NYC	1649	2.1	0.27	1.51	0.19	9.9
Jordan	Morris	SEA	1354	1.49	0.25	1.06	0.15	9.8
Cristian	Techera	VAN	1328	2.46	0.3	1.95	0.19	9.5
Maximiliano	Moralez	NYC	1419	1.35	0.14	2.64	0.29	9.2
Alex	Muyl	NYRB	1057	1.73	0.31	0.64	0.08	9.0
Yura	Movsisyan	RSL	1319	2.62	0.44	0.87	0.13	9.0
Christian	Bolanos	VAN	1073	2.06	0.22	2.42	0.24	9.0
Anthony	Jackson-Hamel	MTL	403	2.38	0.33	0.24	0.01	8.9
Sebastian	Blanco	POR	1643	2.45	0.14	1.69	0.13	8.9
Roland	Alberg	PHI	460	2.71	0.54	0.63	0.04	8.8
Patrick	Mullins	DC	416	2.77	0.39	0.46	0.05	8.8
C.J.	Sapong	PHI	1578	2.01	0.47	1.03	0.11	8.8
Dominic	Oduro	MTL	1056	2.27	0.23	1.27	0.1	8.8
Luciano	Acosta	DC	1260	2.21	0.24	2.13	0.19	8.8
Sacha	Kljestan	NYRB	1549	1.18	0.07	3.16	0.29	8.8
Jefferson	Savarino	RSL	693	3.46	0.26	1.66	0.25	8.7
Abu	Danladi	MN	551	1.92	0.21	1.39	0.1	8.6
David	Guzman	POR	1310	1.76	0.11	2.05	0.16	8.6
Matteo	Mancosu	MTL	963	2.49	0.25	0.6	0.04	8.5
Tosaint	Ricketts	TOR	585	2.63	0.36	0.82	0.04	8.4
	Alex	HOU	1463	1.64	0.1	2.23	0.24	8.4
Victor	Vazquez	TOR	1228	1.41	0.15	3.36	0.31	8.4
Bashkim	Kadrii	MN	413	2.79	0.14	0.46	0.11	8.3
Dairon	Asprilla	POR	943	2.24	0.15	1.12	0.12	8.3
Jahmir	Hyka	SJ	1377	2.16	0.27	2.65	0.24	8.3

Min = total minutes played
Shtp96 = shots per 96 minutes
xGp96 = expected goals per 96 minutes
KPp96 = key passes per 96 minutes
xAp96 = expected assists per 96 minutes
xPoints = total expected offensive points

With Dempsey on international duty, Villa is the obvious stand-out with two home games, despite going against the top-7 defenses of Toronto (1.23 xGA) and Chicago (1.14).

Players who have excellent bonus point production and who should be moved up on your list of options this week:

• Molino: 2.7 BPp96 (bonus points per 96 minutes)
• Lodeiro: 3.0 BPp96
• Dzemaili: 3.0 BPp96
• Alessandrini: 2.7 BPp96
• Kljestan: 4.5 BPp96
• Moralez: 3.4 BPp96
• Guzman: 3.7 BPp96

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Source data behind the calculations come from American Soccer Analysis.