Every week, I’ll be publishing a list of top players ranked by expected offensive points. “Offensive points” includes expected shots, goals, assists, and key passes based on the weekly matchup(s) and past performance. It also includes the 2 points the player would receive for playing 60+ minutes. Sadly, offensive bonus points (except key passes) are not included at this time.
Defensive bonus points are also not currently included because of the limitations of the data set.
The basic premise of this model
Take the chance of an event (such as an assist) happening and multiply it by the fantasy value of that event were to occur. This is what is known as the expected value, and it is one of the most common statistical methods used in the fantasy sports community to predict player value, typical or average points on a particular type of play, and player consistency.
If you’d like to read more about expected value and see more examples of its usage, feel free to check out Statistics How To’s explanation.
Please take these assumptions into mind when using this information to select players for your team:
- This model only takes offensive fantasy production into account: no bonus points or clean sheets are included. There are plenty of good players out there who get bonus points and clean sheets who will not be on this list.
- Player are assumed to play full 96 minutes (the average length of a game) for all games played. If players are to be rotated, especially during double game weeks, their projections will not reflect that knowledge. If players are substituted in or out for part of the game, such lack of playing time will not be reflected in these projections. The goal of these projections is to say, “If this player plays all 96 minutes, based on his past performance, how many offensive points would he be expected to get?”
- The status of players due to injuries, international call-ups, etc., is unknown to this model. Be sure to check a player’s status before adding him to your team.
- The data set is limited to those players who have played at least 400 minutes, so good players who haven’t played as much this season may not appear on this list.
With that said, let’s get into this round’s data.
Round 23 Expected Player Offensive Points
Shtp96 = shots per 96 minutes
xGp96 = expected goals per 96 minutes
KPp96 = key passes per 96 minutes
xAp96 = expected assists per 96 minutes
xOffPt = total expected offensive points
Teal Bunbury has only played two full games, so I don’t expect he’ll meet this lofty projection as the #1 offensive points scorer. Sebastian Giovinco and David Villa, however, should fill out their expectations; it certainly says something when the third-highest projected offensive player is on an away game.
Same goes for the sixth player in our projections, Joao Plata. Despite RSL playing away, the D.C. defense gives up a significant amount of offensive production. Add in Plata’s 1.2 BPp96, and he becomes my sneaky start this week.
Players on this list who have excellent bonus point production and who should be considered higher floor options this week (given they start, of course!):
- Lee Nguyen: 1.5 BPp96 (bonus points per 96 minutes)
- Romain Alessandrini: 1.7 BPp96
- Victor Vazquez: 1.7 BPp96
- Sacha Kljestan: 2.2 BPp96
- Haris Medunjanin: 1.7 BPp96
For more fantasy data and insights every round, follow @MLSFantasyStats on Twitter.
Source data behind the calculations come from American Soccer Analysis.