2017 Round 25 Expected Player Offensive Points

Every week, I’ll be publishing a list of top players ranked by expected offensive points. “Offensive points” includes expected shots, goals, assists, and key passes based on the weekly matchup(s) and past performance. It also includes the 2 points the player would receive for playing 60+ minutes. Sadly, offensive bonus points (except key passes) are not included at this time. Defensive bonus points are also not currently included because of the limitations of the data set.

Want to know more about how this model works? Click here to read the inaugural article in this series, along with an explanation of the model’s basic premise.

Round 25 Expected Player Offensive Points

First	Last	Team	Min	Shtp96	xGp96	KPp96	xAp96	xOffPt
Joao	Plata	RSL	1724	3.95	0.55	2.95	0.28	17.7
Sebastian	Giovinco	TOR	1642	5.61	0.48	1.64	0.18	14.5
Clint	Dempsey	SEA	1635	4.29	0.58	1.82	0.17	14.2
Jozy	Altidore	TOR	1684	2.74	0.51	1.48	0.15	13.0
Jefferson	Savarino	RSL	1132	3.22	0.27	2.04	0.24	12.9
Ola	Kamara	CLB	2169	2.83	0.51	0.89	0.13	12.9
Yura	Movsisyan	RSL	1382	2.85	0.46	0.83	0.12	12.9
Fanendo	Adi	POR	2000	3.31	0.56	1.2	0.09	12.7
Romain	Alessandrini	LA	1829	3.62	0.3	2.68	0.31	12.4
Fredy	Montero	VAN	1758	3.49	0.57	1.2	0.11	12.4
Diego	Valeri	POR	2137	2.83	0.36	2.11	0.25	12.3
Mauro	Manotas	HOU	1634	3.53	0.59	1.76	0.18	12.1
Erick	Torres	HOU	1640	3.28	0.65	1.58	0.12	12.0
Sebastian	Saucedo	RSL	547	3.51	0.23	1.58	0.21	12.0
Albert	Rusnak	RSL	1872	2.62	0.17	2.97	0.22	11.9
Federico	Higuain	CLB	1614	2.38	0.27	2.44	0.22	11.9
Justin	Meram	CLB	1999	2.31	0.32	1.87	0.19	11.8
Patrick	Mullins	DC	499	3.08	0.37	0.77	0.09	11.6
Victor	Vazquez	TOR	1694	1.47	0.2	3.29	0.29	11.5
Will	Bruin	SEA	1250	2.84	0.48	1	0.1	11.4
Alberth	Elis	HOU	1122	3.42	0.48	1.2	0.24	11.2
Josef	Martinez	ATL	628	4.89	0.76	0.46	0.02	11.1
Luis	Silva	RSL	1250	2.69	0.3	1.15	0.11	11.0
Cristian	Colman	DAL	830	3.35	0.48	0.46	0.09	10.9
Luciano	Acosta	DC	1675	1.95	0.21	2.06	0.18	10.9
Maximiliano	Urruti	DAL	1861	3.77	0.37	1.13	0.13	10.8
Giovani	dos Santos	LA	1466	2.29	0.35	1.77	0.16	10.6
C.J.	Sapong	PHI	2055	2.01	0.46	1.07	0.13	10.6
Christian	Bolanos	VAN	1326	2.03	0.21	2.68	0.28	10.5
Michael	Barrios	DAL	1682	2.34	0.22	2.28	0.26	10.4
Cristian	Techera	VAN	1658	2.66	0.28	1.91	0.19	10.3
Nicolas	Lodeiro	SEA	2167	1.99	0.16	2.48	0.29	10.3
Roland	Alberg	PHI	716	2.68	0.49	0.67	0.04	10.3
Roland	Lamah	DAL	1522	1.96	0.35	1.58	0.16	10.2
Deshorn	Brown	DC	542	2.83	0.35	0.35	0.02	10.2
Niko	Hansen	CLB	448	1.5	0.22	1.07	0.24	10.1
Jose	Guillermo Ortiz	DC	711	2.84	0.27	0.81	0.06	10.0
Lamar	Neagle	DC	1218	2.05	0.31	0.79	0.05	9.9
Tosaint	Ricketts	TOR	681	2.54	0.37	0.7	0.03	9.9
Patrick	Nyarko	DC	1071	1.61	0.17	1.52	0.18	9.8
Nemanja	Nikolic	CHI	2093	3.62	0.65	0.64	0.06	9.6
David	Accam	CHI	1545	2.67	0.44	2.05	0.26	9.6
Romell	Quioto	HOU	832	2.42	0.28	1.27	0.27	9.5
Brooks	Lennon	RSL	1167	0.82	0.06	2.22	0.27	9.4
Jahmir	Hyka	SJ	1616	2.02	0.24	2.61	0.27	9.3
Jordan	Morris	SEA	1551	1.67	0.26	1.11	0.16	9.3
Lloyd	Sam	DC	1589	1.15	0.09	2.24	0.19	9.2
Fabian	Herbers	PHI	433	1.77	0.18	1.77	0.24	9.1
David	Guzman	POR	1582	1.82	0.11	2.18	0.21	9.0
Sebastian	Blanco	POR	2096	2.56	0.15	1.83	0.14	9.0
Danny	Hoesen	SJ	1322	3.2	0.33	1.31	0.14	9.0
Tesho	Akindele	DAL	1104	1.04	0.19	2.09	0.21	9.0
Ethan	Finlay	CLB	1348	1.5	0.22	1	0.11	8.9
Marcus	Epps	PHI	414	2.78	0.29	0.93	0.07	8.9
Kekuta	Manneh	CLB	831	2.19	0.18	1.27	0.08	8.8
Dairon	Asprilla	POR	1142	2.19	0.17	1.26	0.15	8.8
Marco	Urena	SJ	1418	2.3	0.26	1.35	0.23	8.7
Chris	Wondolowski	SJ	2239	2.19	0.3	1.29	0.17	8.6
Miguel	Almiron	ATL	1923	2.9	0.26	1.7	0.21	8.6
Nicolas	Mezquida	VAN	550	1.75	0.1	2.09	0.21	8.5
Kellyn	Acosta	DAL	1311	2.56	0.17	1.46	0.12	8.5
Tommy	Thompson	SJ	1095	2.98	0.18	1.49	0.22	8.4

Min = total minutes played Shtp96 = shots per 96 minutes xGp96 = expected goals per 96 minutes KPp96 = key passes per 96 minutes xAp96 = expected assists per 96 minutes xOffPt = total expected offensive points

Analysis

Two home games for RSL means Joao Plata tops this list; add in his respectable 1.1 BPp96 and his $9.6 price, and you’ve got a high-potential starter.  If you’re looking for budget forwards, Houston’s Mauro Manotas ($8.1) may be the man for you; his xPt and BP production per 96 is better than the fan-favorite Torres ($8.5), despite playing approximately the same number of minutes.

Players on this list who have excellent bonus point production and who should be considered higher floor options this week (given they start both games, of course!):

• Romain Alessandrini: 1.7 BPp96 (bonus points per 96 minutes)
• Victor Vazquez: 1.8 BPp96
• Nicholas Lodeiro: 1.9 BPp96

For more fantasy data and insights every round, follow @MLSFantasyStats on Twitter.

Source data behind the calculations come from American Soccer Analysis.