2017 Round 32 Expected Player Points

Every week, I’ll be publishing a list of top players ranked by expected offensive points. This week, I’m publishing a special edition of my projections which includes expected values for (almost)¹ all player points, not just offensive points!  This includes expected goals & assists, shots, expected clean sheets and negative points from goals against, bonus points, and even points differentiated by position (e.g., defender gets 6 points per goal scored, forward gets 5).

Want to know more about how this model works? Click here to read the inaugural article in this series, along with an explanation of the model’s basic premise.

Round 32 Expected Player Points

First	Last	Team	Pos	Price	Min	xOffPt	RdGamePts	xBP	Pos xCS	Total xPt	Price/xPt
Romain	Alessandrini	LA	M	10.7	2405	8.2	2	1.6	0.32	10.2	1.05
Sebastian	Giovinco	TOR	F	13.4	1971	7.8	2	0.7	0.00	8.5	1.58
Diego	Valeri	POR	M	12.1	2810	7.1	2	1.0	0.35	8.4	1.44
Michael	Murillo	NYRB	D	5.6	768	4.2	2	2.4	1.21	7.7	0.72
Fanendo	Adi	POR	F	9.3	2000	7.4	2	0.2	0.00	7.6	1.23
Fredy	Montero	VAN	F	9.5	2456	7.0	2	0.5	0.00	7.6	1.26
Jozy	Altidore	TOR	F	10.5	2097	7.1	2	0.5	0.00	7.6	1.39
Yoshimar	Yotun	ORL	D	8.4	757	4.4	2	1.9	1.15	7.5	1.12
Victor	Vazquez	TOR	M	9.8	2297	5.4	2	1.5	0.48	7.4	1.32
Joao	Plata	RSL	F	9.8	2245	6.0	2	1.4	0.00	7.4	1.32
David	Accam	CHI	F	9.9	2129	6.3	2	1.0	0.00	7.3	1.35
Nemanja	Nikolic	CHI	F	10.6	2881	7.1	2	0.2	0.00	7.3	1.45
Justin	Morrow	TOR	D	7.5	2409	4.1	2	0.9	2.23	7.2	1.04
Giovani	dos Santos	LA	F	9.8	2129	6.7	2	0.5	0.00	7.2	1.37
Clint	Dempsey	SEA	F	9.9	2279	6.5	2	0.5	0.00	7.1	1.40
David	Guzman	POR	M	8	1994	4.6	2	2.0	0.35	6.9	1.15
Sacha	Kljestan	NYRB	M	11.8	2646	4.5	2	2.1	0.31	6.9	1.71
Nicolas	Lodeiro	SEA	M	12.2	2923	4.6	2	1.9	0.32	6.8	1.78
David	Villa	NYC	F	12.3	2493	6.0	2	0.8	0.00	6.8	1.80
Gonzalo	Veron	NYRB	F	7.4	774	6.7	2	0.1	0.00	6.8	1.08
Yordy	Reyna	VAN	M	8.8	947	5.5	2	1.0	0.30	6.8	1.29
Alan	Gordon	COL	F	5.4	811	6.8	2	0.0	0.00	6.8	0.79
Cristian	Techera	VAN	M	7.7	2013	5.5	2	1.0	0.30	6.8	1.14
Lee	Nguyen	NE	M	11.2	2561	5.1	2	1.4	0.25	6.7	1.67
Daniel	Royer	NYRB	M	8.2	1856	5.7	2	0.7	0.31	6.7	1.22
Diego	Rubio	SKC	F	7.3	912	6.1	2	0.6	0.00	6.7	1.09
Benny	Feilhaber	SKC	M	10.8	2286	4.9	2	1.4	0.34	6.6	1.63
Nick	Hagglund	TOR	D	5.3	1186	2.9	2	1.5	2.23	6.6	0.80
Teal	Bunbury	NE	M	6.9	1212	5.9	2	0.4	0.25	6.6	1.05
Bradley	Wright-Phillips	NYRB	F	10.7	2614	6.2	2	0.4	0.00	6.6	1.63
Daniel	Steres	LA	D	6.6	1961	4.1	2	1.2	1.23	6.5	1.01
Marcel	de Jong	VAN	D	4.9	740	3.2	2	2.2	1.11	6.5	0.76
Dave	Romney	LA	D	5.1	2223	3.6	2	1.6	1.23	6.4	0.79
Jimmy	Medranda	SKC	D	6.0	1924	3.9	2	1.1	1.36	6.4	0.94
Kendall	Waston	VAN	D	6.3	2187	3.1	2	2.2	1.11	6.4	0.99
Larrys	Mabiala	POR	D	5.6	1048	2.7	2	2.2	1.42	6.3	0.89
Arturo	Alvarez	CHI	M	7.8	975	4.7	2	1.2	0.35	6.2	1.25
Chris	Mavinga	TOR	D	6.2	1929	2.4	2	1.6	2.23	6.2	0.99
Sebastian	Blanco	POR	M	8.9	2753	4.8	2	1.0	0.35	6.2	1.44
Dairon	Asprilla	POR	M	6.0	1443	5.0	2	0.8	0.35	6.1	0.98
Dominic	Dwyer	ORL	F	9.0	2172	5.8	2	0.3	0.00	6.1	1.47
Shkelzen	Gashi	COL	F	9.5	1090	5.3	2	0.8	0.00	6.1	1.56
Drew	Moor	TOR	D	6.9	2100	2.5	2	1.2	2.23	6.0	1.15
Christian	Bolanos	VAN	M	8.2	1625	4.8	2	0.9	0.30	6.0	1.37

Pos = player position
Total xPt = total expected points for this round, assuming the player plays 96 minutes in each game
Price/xPt = a measure of value: player price per expected point
Min = total minutes played
Shtp96 = shots per 96 minutes
xGp96 = expected goals per 96 minutes
KPp96 = key passes per 96 minutes
xAp96 = expected assists per 96 minutes
RdGamePts = points for playing 60 minutes in each game
BPp96 = bonus points per 96 minutes
xBP = BPp96 * # of games
Pos xCS = expected clean sheet points + expected negative points from goals against

Some standouts in several categories are in bold font.

Analysis

• Alessandrini looks to have an excellent matchup against a defense with an average of 2.1 expected goals against in the past 6 games, that is, as long as neither one of these teams eliminated from playoff contention rotates their lineups.
• Yotún is a defender playing out of position, and he’s playing out of his mind!  He’s gotten decent offensive points opportunities (for comparison, his typical per-96-minutes xOffPt is more than Bastian Schweinsteiger and Dax McCarty‘s combined!) along with an excellent 1.9 BPp96 (bonus points per 96 minutes).
• If you’re looking for a budget forward, Colorado’s Alan Gordon ($5.4) might be a good pick.  He’s 22nd in expected points this week, but he comes at a typical defender price.

For more fantasy data and insights every round, follow @MLSFantasyStats on Twitter.

Source data behind the calculations come from American Soccer Analysis and MLS Fantasy Cheatsheet.

¹I purposefully don’t project penalties and own goals, since they are nearly impossible to predict due to their infrequency. Expected points from passes, yellow/red cards, fouls received, and saves should be in future models but either require additional data sources (which I don’t have time to tie in yet) or deeper analysis (which I don’t have time to perform yet).