2017 Round 33 Expected Player Points

Every week, I’ll be publishing a list of top players ranked by expected offensive points. This week, I’m publishing a special edition of my projections which includes expected values for (almost)¹ all player points, not just offensive points!  This includes expected goals & assists, shots, expected clean sheets and negative points from goals against, bonus points, and even points differentiated by position (e.g., defender gets 6 points per goal scored, forward gets 5).

Want to know more about how this model works? Click here to read the inaugural article in this series, along with an explanation of the model’s basic premise.

Round 33 Expected Player Points

First	Last	Team	Min	Pos	Price	Total xPt	Price/xPt	xOffPt	BPp96	Pos xCS
Valeri	Qazaishvili	SJ	727	M	9.3	10.1	0.92	8.8	0.9	0.35
Vicente	Sanchez	HOU	589	F	6.4	9.2	0.70	7.7	1.5	0.00
Clint	Dempsey	SEA	2372	F	10	8.5	1.17	7.9	0.6	0.00
David	Villa	NYC	2588	F	12.3	8.2	1.50	7.4	0.8	0.00
Diego	Valeri	POR	2903	M	12.3	8.2	1.50	6.8	1.1	0.32
Danny	Hoesen	SJ	1859	F	7.7	8.0	0.97	7.4	0.6	0.00
Alberth	Elis	HOU	1712	F	8.5	7.9	1.08	7.3	0.6	0.00
Nicolas	Lodeiro	SEA	3016	M	12.3	7.8	1.58	5.4	1.9	0.46
Jahmir	Hyka	SJ	1888	M	8.2	7.8	1.05	6.6	0.9	0.35
Josef	Martinez	ATL	1492	F	9.8	7.6	1.29	7.3	0.3	0.00
Erick	Torres	HOU	2111	F	8.6	7.4	1.15	6.9	0.5	0.00
Joao	Plata	RSL	2344	F	9.8	7.3	1.34	6.0	1.3	0.00
Cristian	Colman	DAL	1017	F	8.1	7.2	1.12	7.0	0.2	0.00
Romell	Quioto	HOU	1286	F	8.5	7.2	1.19	6.4	0.8	0.00
Ignacio	Piatti	MTL	2413	M	11.7	7.1	1.64	5.8	1.1	0.24
Marco	Urena	SJ	1804	F	7.2	7.1	1.02	6.8	0.3	0.00
Fanendo	Adi	POR	2000	F	9.3	7.1	1.31	6.9	0.2	0.00
Roman	Torres	SEA	1778	D	6.3	7.0	0.89	3.6	1.3	2.11
Mauro	Manotas	HOU	2104	F	7.9	6.9	1.14	6.5	0.4	0.00
Chris	Wondolowski	SJ	3092	F	8.4	6.9	1.22	6.5	0.4	0.00
Tommy	Thompson	SJ	1613	M	5.6	6.9	0.82	5.6	1.0	0.35
Florian	Jungwirth	SJ	2628	D	6.1	6.9	0.89	3.0	2.4	1.45
Rodney	Wallace	NYC	1921	M	7.6	6.8	1.12	5.5	0.9	0.33
Miguel	Almiron	ATL	2489	M	10.5	6.7	1.56	5.2	1.2	0.28
David	Guzman	POR	2062	M	8	6.7	1.19	4.4	2.0	0.32
Maximiliano	Moralez	NYC	2554	M	9.8	6.7	1.47	4.7	1.7	0.33
Michael	Murillo	NYRB	864	D	5.6	6.6	0.84	3.7	2.2	0.73
Sacha	Kljestan	NYRB	2742	M	11.9	6.6	1.79	4.2	2.2	0.24
Michael	Barrios	DAL	2616	M	8.5	6.6	1.29	5.2	1.0	0.42
Chad	Marshall	SEA	2402	D	6.8	6.5	1.04	3.1	1.4	2.11
Blerim	Dzemaili	MTL	1936	M	9.4	6.5	1.44	5.2	1.0	0.24
Roland	Alberg	PHI	948	M	7.5	6.4	1.17	5.8	0.2	0.37
Kelvin	Leerdam	SEA	1267	D	5.2	6.4	0.82	3.7	0.5	2.11
Darren	Mattocks	POR	1081	F	6.4	6.4	1.01	5.3	1.1	0.00
Maximiliano	Urruti	DAL	2808	F	9.2	6.3	1.45	5.8	0.5	0.00
Mauro	Diaz	DAL	1075	M	9.9	6.3	1.56	5.5	0.4	0.42
Tomas	Martinez	HOU	547	M	9.2	6.3	1.46	4.9	1.1	0.30
Sebastian	Saucedo	RSL	646	F	4.9	6.3	0.78	5.0	1.3	0.00
Roland	Lamah	DAL	2120	M	8.1	6.3	1.29	5.3	0.5	0.42
Joevin	Jones	SEA	2465	D	29	6.3	4.62	3.9	0.2	2.11
Hernan	Grana	DAL	2713	D	6	6.2	0.96	3.1	1.3	1.90
Frederic	Brillant	NYC	1540	D	6.2	6.2	1.00	3.4	1.5	1.35
Cristian	Roldan	SEA	3011	M	7.9	6.2	1.27	4.2	1.5	0.46
Gonzalo	Veron	NYRB	800	F	7.4	6.2	1.19	6.1	0.1	0.00
Nouhou	Tolo	SEA	1023	D	4	6.2	0.65	2.6	1.5	2.11
Will	Bruin	SEA	1832	F	6.9	6.2	1.11	6.0	0.2	0.00
Javier	Morales	DAL	791	M	9.3	6.2	1.51	3.9	1.8	0.42
Sebastian	Giovinco	TOR	2066	F	13.4	6.1	2.18	5.5	0.7	0.00
Sebastian	Blanco	POR	2846	M	9.1	6.1	1.49	4.7	1.1	0.32
Patrick	Mullins	DC	1042	F	8.2	6.1	1.35	6.1	0.0	0.00
Maynor	Figueroa	DAL	2394	D	6.0	6.0	0.99	3.2	1.0	1.90
Victor	Rodriguez	SEA	513	M	8.8	6.0	1.47	4.8	0.7	0.46
Nick	Lima	SJ	1903	D	4	6.0	0.67	3.5	1.1	1.45
C.J.	Sapong	PHI	2880	F	8.1	6.0	1.36	5.6	0.3	0.00
Larrys	Mabiala	POR	1141	D	5.7	6.0	0.96	2.5	2.2	1.28
Victor	Bernardez	SJ	2231	D	5.0	6.0	0.84	2.7	1.8	1.45

Pos = player position
Total xPt = total expected points for this round, assuming the player plays 96 minutes in each game
Price/xPt = a measure of value: player price per expected point
Min = total minutes played
BPp96 = bonus points per 96 minutes
Pos xCS = expected clean sheet points + expected negative points from goals against

Analysis

• Valeri “Vako” Qazaishvili is my number one player for this round by nearly a full point, though he comes with the risk of not playing the full 90, and his 727 minutes is a small sample size compared to many on this chart, so we would expect more uncertainty behind his numbers.
• The other Valeri, Diego, is the other must-have midfielder given his consistently great floor, along with the first-round bye at stake.
• Danny Hoesen has better expected offensive points and bonus point production than Wondolowski and is a full $0.7 cheaper.  If Hoesen starts, he’s a better play than Wondo.
• There are a significant number of top-notch forward options compared to midfielders and defenders this round, with defenders bringing up the rear.  It may be a good round for a 3-4-3 formation.
• If you’re going to pick a solid defender, though, you can round out your team with NYRB’s Michael Murillo.  At only $5.6, he’s a steal for the amount of bonus point production he’s had lately, on par with the likes of Kjlestan.

For more fantasy data and insights every round, follow @MLSFantasyStats on Twitter.

Source data behind the calculations come from American Soccer Analysis and MLS Fantasy Cheatsheet.

¹I purposefully don’t project penalties and own goals, since they are nearly impossible to predict due to their infrequency. Expected points from passes, yellow/red cards, fouls received, and saves should be in future models but either require additional data sources (which I don’t have time to tie in yet) or deeper analysis (which I don’t have time to perform yet).