The following predictions are based on the ELO ranking system. This system was first used in chess to calculate the skill level of players and predict the most likely winner. It’s a good system, but soccer is not chess because soccer can end in a draw. Fortunately chess also allows for a draw and the ELO system is setup to factor this into its calculations. I’m using a modified formula that tries to predict the chance that a team will come away with points. This includes not only wins, but also draws.
The system starts each new team at a score of 1500 and then adjusts their rating as the season goes on. My current team scores include data from 1996-2020 (with some adjustment to account for the changing MLS win/draw rules). The following are not included: Domestic tournaments, preseason friendlies, and international games. These scores are used to rank teams for my Power Rankings table and the values are now included in the chart.
2021 Running total of Prediction Success
- Round 15 Predictions: Correct = 10 Incorrect = 4 Draw = 11. Total accuracy of predicting teams earning points = 84%
- 2021 Overall: Correct = 107 Incorrect = 49 Draw = 68. Total accuracy of predicting teams earning points = 78%
2021 Round 16 Predictions and Power Rankings
Please note, these predictions are not for a team to win, that are for a team to Earn Points. So the home teams also get a boost from a draw chance.