MLS Fantasy Boss A Fantasy MLS Community
Near the end of the 2013 MLS season, I came across some information about the ELO ranking system. Basically, there is a formula that is used to try to predict the winner of a match. Since soccer can end in a draw, I’m using a modified version of this formula that basically tries to predict the chance that a team will come away from a match with points.
Last season, this ELO system predicted the winner of a game 53% of the time. When I expand the the results to include draws (both teams getting 1 point) the success rate goes up to 78%.
But enough background. With the start of the 2014 just around the corner, here are the MLS Fantasy Boss predictions for Week 1 and our Power Rankings.
So, basically you cant lost if you play at home.
The is a documented home field advantage and the formula accounts for that. Saying that they cannot lose is not exactly correct, but they have the best chance to come away from a match with points (62%).
All teams ending scores are adjusted at the end of a season and this moves everyone closer to the original mean. This accounts for team change over the off-season, but it does also mean that home teams will be more favored at the start.
There are times when an away team has an advantage though.