Behind the Numbers: MLS Fantasy Week 20

Behind the Numbers

Week 19 Review

Week 19. What was week 19. No one I’ve talked to feels like they did that well, so mostly it was about surviving. I felt a lot better before the late late late Gaitan score correction from a 7 to a 3…especially since he was my captain. I tried all the a-roos possible, but couldn’t quite hit it big, despite avoiding the Zlatan trap and the Fernandez/Vela rotation.

The Behind the Numbers Team only managed 67 points but did climb in the rankings up to 248 OR. We also gained + $2.90 up to a total team value of $111.30.

What I’m Thinking About

  • I see a ton of confusion about why players prices do what they do. Just a reminder that its the three week average divided by their price that’s really important. As a super simple metric, when looking for players how should rise in value, just divide their Form/Value and look for numbers around or above 1. Then even if you don’t score super well you should still gain value.
  • I hate forwards and love midfielders. Take this week for example. Of the top 137 players I looked at, sorted by bonus point production per 90 mins, the first forward on the list Rooney at #32, you don’t find the next forward until #82. Forwards are boom/bust. You probably have to have them but to mitigate this risk stronnnnnngly consider putting them on your bench/roo slots.

Week 19 Team Value Recap

  • Results of Twitter/Reddit Poll
    • Average Points Scored: 69
    • Average Team Value Gained: 2.3
    • Average Current Team Value: 109.4

Week 19 TRUE Dream Team

Here are the rules.

  • only three players per team
  • must be a valid formation
  • must fit in the average budget for that week
  • ties are broken with lowest value player making the team
  • the bench is all 4.0 scrubs

So here’s the Week 19 TRUE Dream Team

Week 20 Team Defense Rankings

Total Budget this Week: Average Budget: $109.4, BTN Budget: $111.3

Goalkeepers

The Player Pool

Must Haves

  • None

Top Options

  • None

Price Rise Targets

  • Westberg – TOR – $6.20
  • Rowe – ORL – $6.30

Value Players

  • Turner – NER – $4.90
  • Kronholm – CHI – 5.10
  • Guzan – ATL – $5.30

Notes

There are 3 solid value options in the Wednesday slate, with my preference going to Turner or Guzan. Unfortunately, the back end of the switcheroo is pricier than I really want, maybe Rowe or Clark. Richey would be cheap, but not a lot of probability for points.

Defenders

The Player Pool

Must Haves

  • None

Top Options

  • Auro – TOR – $6.00
  • Robinson – ATL – $6.40
  • Calvo – CHI – $6.50
  • Sane – ORL – $6.90
  • Schweinsteiger – $5.80

Price Rise Targets (Form/$ >~ 1.00)

  • Sane – ORL – $6.90
  • Morrow – TOR – $5.70
  • Calvo – CHI – $6.50
  • Ruan – ORL – $5.80
  • Delamea – ORL – $5.80
  • Auro – TOR – $6.00
  • Schweinsteiger – CHI – $5.80

Value Players (PP90/$)

  • Auro – TOR – $6.00
  • Pirez – ATL – $6.50
  • Robinson – ATL – $6.40
  • Calvo – CHI – $6.50
  • Farrell – NER – $4.70
  • Schweinsteiger – CHI – $5.80

Notes

All of the best defensive teams have the home game in the midweek, which we know have a higher chance of hitting on clean sheets. Looking at the data and the matchups, a lot of the same names keep popping up. On DGWs I think its worth to pay up for the bonus point producers.

Week 20 Team Offense Rankings

Week 20 Top 50 Player Projections

Note: Player projections extrapolate previous stats and matchup data for the current player and match up assuming that player plays the full 90 (SGW) or 180 (DGW). It does not factor in the probability of a player starting or being rotated during a DGW.

Midfielders

The Player Pool

Must Haves

  • Pozuelo – TOR – $10.90
  • Valeri – POR – $11.50
  • Gil – NER – $11.30

Top Options

  • Nani – ORL – $9.5
  • Gaitan – CHI – $10.10
  • Bradley – TOR – $9.10
  • Martinez – ATL – $9.5
  • Blanco – POR – $11.10
  • Katai – CHI – $8.50

Price Rise Targets (Form/$ >~ 1.00)

  • Nico Gaitan – CHI – $10.10
  • Marky Delgado – TOR – $7.4
  • Sebastian Blanco – POR – $11.10
  • Michael Bradley – TOR – $9.10
  • Carles Gil – NER – $11.30

Value Players (PP90/$)

  • Chris Mueller – ORL – $6.4
  • Nani – ORL – $9.5
  • Pozuelo – TOR – $10.90
  • Frankowski – CHI – $6.2
  • Bradley – TOR – $9.1

Notes

For me, Poz, Valeri, and Gil are data nerd catnip. I think we’ve forgotten how good Pozuelo is. HE’S VELA GOOD.  The key for differentiating this week will either be finding the unlikely values in midfield or hitting some home runs on forwards.

Forwards

The Player Pool

Must Haves

  • None

Top Options

  • Martinez – ATL – $12.00
  • Fernandez – POR – $10.50
  • Altidore – TOR – $10.30

Price Rise Targets (Form/$) >~ 1.00

  • Bunbury – NER – $7.80
  • Manneh – CIN – $7.1
  • Martinez – ATL – $12.00
  • Sapong – NER – $7.40
  • Caicedo – NER – $8.10

Value Lottery Tickets (PP90/$)

  • Caicedo – NER – $8.10
  • Akindele – POR – $6.30
  • Ebobisse – POR – $5.30
  • Fernandez – POR – $10.50
  • Altidore – TOR – $10.30

Notes

There are some interesting options in the low price range and even in the upper price range. But with so many must have forwards it’ll be a balancing act to fit everyone in.

2019 Week 19 Behind the Numbers Team

Here’s my first draft of the Behind the Numbers Team based on the discussion above.

If you’d like to follow me on twitter, I’m @MLSFB_BTN. I typically post my updated lineup before the games start to show if my thinking has changed since this column went up.’

Resources for nerding out about MLS Fantasy

  • http://www.mlscheatsheet.com/ — Bonus point data, projections and more
  • https://www.americansocceranalysis.com/asa-xgoals — Interactive xG and passing data
  • https://www.whoscored.com/ — Analytics based player ratings

About Kyle Mcelhinny

Scientist by day, soccer fan by night. Nerd always. Using stats to overcome my lack of knowledge about the beautiful game.

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2 comments

  1. Nathaniel Quance

    Is Fernandez for Portland not featured on the top players list for a reason? I would have thought he was a decent option in a double game week. What am I missing?

    • It’s just due to the number of games he has played. He’s definitely a top player to consider and should be in the stats based simulations as he gets more games under his belt.

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