Behind the Numbers: MLS Fantasy Week 22

Behind the Numbers

Week 21 Review

The Behind the Numbers Team put up 94 points and rose to 215 OR. The total team value continued to rise with an increase up to $117.8 on the season.

The injury bug struck again with Moralez managing just one point. Pozuelo didn’t quite pan out as I’d hoped, but the big disappointment was the autoroo players with Toye note starting and the NYRB doing nothing against hapless Columbus.

Week 21 Team Value Recap

  • Results of Twitter/Reddit Poll
    • Average Points Scored: 90
    • Average Current Team Value: 116.7

Week 21 TRUE Dream Team

Here are the rules.

  • only three players per team
  • must be a valid formation
  • must fit in the average budget for that week
  • ties are broken with lowest value player making the team
  • the bench is all 4.0 scrubs

So here’s the Week 21 TRUE Dream Team

Week 22 Team Defense Rankings

Total Budget this Week: Average Budget: $116.7, BTN Budget: $117.8

Goalkeepers

Top Teams

SJE, CIN, ATL, ORL, SEA.

SJE and ATL are the clear favorite choices this week. SEA should play against a depleted SKC team. CIN and ORL have favorable matchups but are not the most reliable options.

The Player Pool

Must Haves

  • None

Top Options

  • Brad Guzan ATL GK $6.30
  • Daniel Vega SJ GK $5.80

Price Rise Targets (Form/$ >~ 1.00)

  • Brad Guzan ATL GK $6.30
  • Spencer Richey CIN GK $5.00 (if he plays)

Value Players (PP90/$)

  • Brad Guzan ATL GK $6.30
  • Spencer Richey CIN GK $5.00 (if he plays)

Notes

The goalkeepers I like are pretty short this week. Probably your best option will be to start Guzan in the keeperoo against a depleted LA team. Then, if needed, pivot to Vega or Frei.

Defenders

Top Teams

SJE, CIN, ATL, ORL, SEA.

The Player Pool

Must Haves

  • None

Top Options

  • Miles Robinson ATL DF $7.20
  • Kim Kee-hee SEA DF $6.60
  • Florian Jungwirth SJ DF $7.00

Price Rise Targets (Form/$ >~ 1.00)

  • Miles Robinson ATL DF $7.20
  • Lamine Sane ORL DF $7.70
  • Ruan ORL DF $6.10
  • Kim Kee-hee SEA DF $6.60

Value Players (PP90/$)

  • Kelvin Leerdam SEA DF $5.60
  • Michael Parkhurst ATL DF $4.80
  • Franco Escobar ATL DF $6.10
  • Florian Jungwirth SJ DF $7.00
  • Miles Robinson ATL DF $7.20

Notes

Realistically, I’m probably going to be squeezing as much value out of DEF as possible, so despite not making the list, guys like Lima, any number of SEA backline players and Moutinho from ORL.

Week 22 Team Offense Rankings

Week 22 Top 50 Player Projections

*note that Bou (NER) does not yet have enough data to qualify, but Brian Fernandez (POR) finally does!

Note: Player projections extrapolate previous stats and matchup data for the current player and match up assuming that player plays the full 90 (SGW) or 180 (DGW). It does not factor in the probability of a player starting or being rotated during a DGW.

Midfielders

The Player Pool

Top Teams

ATL, CIN, LAFC, MIN, SEA, SJE

Must Haves

  • None

Top Options

  • Vako SJ MF $8.70
  • Nicolas Lodeiro SEA MF $12.40
  • Eduard Atuesta LAFC MF $11.40
  • Magnus Eriksson SJ MF $9.70
  • Julian Gressel ATL MF $9.10

Price Rise Targets (Form/$ >~ 1.00)

  • Julian Gressel ATL MF $9.10
  • Vako SJ MF $8.70
  • Magnus Eriksson SJ MF $9.70
  • Darlington Nagbe ATL MF $7.90
  • Cristian Espinoza SJ MF $9.40

Value Players (PP90/$)

  • Ezequiel Barco ATL MF $9.00
  • Vako SJ MF $8.70
  • Latif Blessing LAFC MF $8.20
  • Emmanuel Ledesma CIN MF $8.40
  • Julian Gressel ATL MF $9.10

Notes

The SJE players continue to be a strong value and hot players. Lodeiro figures to be a template play. Atlanta could actually offer value depending on when the lineup drops.

Forwards

The Player Pool

Top Teams

ATL, CIN, LAFC, MIN, SEA, SJE

Must Haves

  • None

Top Options

  • Carlos Vela LAFC FW $13.00
  • Josef Martinez ATL FW $12.90
  • Raul Ruidiaz SEA FW $11.20

Price Rise Targets (Form/$) >~ 1.00

  • Carlos Vela LAFC FW $13.00
  • Adama Diomande LAFC FW $9.50

Value Players (PP90/$)

  • Adama Diomande LAFC FW $9.50
  • Carlos Vela LAFC FW $13.00
  • Darren Mattocks CIN FW $5.70
  • Chris Wondolowski SJ FW $7.40
  • Kekuta Manneh CIN FW $6.40

Notes

Josef will also likely be on everyone’s team, but you may actually squeeze some differential out of Vela. There is however a suite of cheap players in SJE and CIN.

2019 Week 22 Behind the Numbers Team

Here’s my first draft of the Behind the Numbers Team based on the discussion above.

If you’d like to follow me on twitter, I’m @MLSFB_BTN. I typically post my updated lineup before the games start to show if my thinking has changed since this column went up.’

Resources for nerding out about MLS Fantasy

  • http://www.mlscheatsheet.com/ — Bonus point data, projections and more
  • https://www.americansocceranalysis.com/asa-xgoals — Interactive xG and passing data
  • https://www.whoscored.com/ — Analytics based player ratings

About Kyle Mcelhinny

Scientist by day, soccer fan by night. Nerd always. Using stats to overcome my lack of knowledge about the beautiful game.

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