Behind the Numbers: MLS Fantasy Week 24

Behind the Numbers

Week 23 Team Value Recap

I’m hoping this week can serve as a launching pad to push up the rankings as we head toward the end of the season. Spring season finished on a surge, but fall has been stuck in neutral. Last week was solid with 112 pts and WR 184. This pushed the BTN team up into 216 overall. DEF left a lot to be desired last weekend, but the midfield and forwards offered some predictable value which came through last week.

Week 23 Team Value Recap

  • Results of Twitter/Reddit Poll
    • Average Points Scored: 109
    • Average Current Team Value: $121.1

What I’m Thinking About.

  • Mostly I’m just thinking about how my readers are all apparently much better at this game than me. Seriously, you guys should be writing this. Really awesome job this season.

Week 23 TRUE Dream Team

Here are the rules.

  • only three players per team
  • must be a valid formation
  • must fit in the average budget for that week
  • ties are broken with lowest value player making the team
  • the bench is all 4.0 scrubs

So here’s the Week 23 TRUE Dream Team

Week 24 Team Defense Rankings

Projections provided by @thedummyrun on twitter.

Total Budget this Week: Average Budget: $119.0, BTN Budget: $118.8

Goalkeepers

Top Teams

CHI, LAG, MIN, ORL, RSL

The Player Pool

Must Haves

  • None

Top Options

  • David Bingham LA GK $6.90
  • Vito Mannone MIN GK $7.80

Price Rise Targets (Form/$ >~ 1.00)

  • Vito Mannone MIN GK $7.80

Value Players (PP90/$)

  • None

Bargain Bin

  • None

Defenders

Top Teams

CHI, LAG, MIN, ORL, RSL

The Player Pool

Must Haves

  • None

Top Options

  • Romain Metanire MIN DF $8.00
  • Ike Opara MIN DF $9.20
  • Carlos Ascues ORL DF $6.00
  • Hassani Dotson MIN DF $6.30
  • Francisco Calvo CHI DF $7.40

Price Rise Targets (Form/$ >~ 1.00)

  • Bastian Schweinsteiger CHI DF $6.90
  • Francisco Calvo CHI DF $7.40
  • Carlos Ascues ORL DF $6.00
  • Johan Kappelhof CHI DF $7.00
  • Romain Metanire MIN DF $8.00
  • Hassani Dotson MIN DF $6.30

Value Players (PP90/$)

  • Brent Kallman MIN DF $4.60
  • Carlos Ascues ORL DF $6.00
  • Daniel Steres LA DF $5.40
  • Hassani Dotson MIN DF $6.30
  • Rolf Feltscher LA DF $4.50
  • Joao Moutinho ORL DF $5.60

Bargain Bin

  • Daniel Steres LA DF $5.40
  • Brent Kallman MIN DF $4.60
  • Joao Moutinho ORL DF $5.60
  • Rolf Feltscher LA DF $4.50
  • Marcelo CHI DF $4.70

Week 24 Team Offense Rankings

Projections provided by @thedummyrun on twitter.

Week 24 Top 50 Player Projections

*note that Bou (NER) does not yet have enough data to qualify, but Brian Fernandez (POR) finally does!

Projections provided by @thedummyrun on twitter.

Note: Player projections extrapolate previous stats and matchup data for the current player and match up assuming that player plays the full 90 (SGW) or 180 (DGW). It does not factor in the probability of a player starting or being rotated during a DGW.

Midfielders

The Player Pool

Top Teams

MIN, LAG, CHI, SKC, POR

Must Haves

  • None

Top Options

  • Kevin Molino MIN MF $8.00
  • Diego Valeri POR MF $12.30
  • Johnny Russell SKC MF $8.40
  • Felipe Gutierrez SKC MF $10.70
  • Nicolas Gaitan CHI MF $9.70
  • Jonathan dos Santos LA MF $9.10
  • Sebastian Blanco POR MF $10.90

Price Rise Targets (Form/$ >~ 1.00)

  • Cristhian Paredes POR MF $6.50
  • Ethan Finlay MIN MF $7.90

Value Players (PP90/$)

  • Gianluca Busio SKC MF $4.60
  • Chris Pontius LA MF $5.20
  • Kevin Molino MIN MF $8.00
  • Johnny Russell SKC MF $8.40
  • Djordje Mihailovic CHI MF $5.40

Bargain Bin

  • Gianluca Busio SKC MF $4.60
  • Chris Pontius LA MF $5.20
  • Sebastian Lletget LA MF $5.10
  • Uriel Antuna LA MF $5.10
  • Gedion Zelalem SKC MF $4.70

Forwards

The Player Pool

Top Teams

MIN, LAG, CHI, SKC, POR

Must Haves

  • None

Top Options

  • Zlatan Ibrahimovic LA FW $10.80
  • Brian Fernandez POR FW $10.60
  • Carlos Darwin Quintero MIN FW $9.10

Price Rise Targets (Form/$) >~ 1.00

  • Jeremy Ebobisse POR FW $6.20
  • Zlatan Ibrahimovic LA FW $10.80

Value Players (PP90/$)

  • Krisztian Nemeth SKC FW $5.90
  • Jeremy Ebobisse POR FW $6.20

Bargain Bin

  • Krisztian Nemeth SKC FW $5.90
  • Jeremy Ebobisse POR FW $6.20
  • Angelo Rodriguez MIN FW $6.30
  • C.J. Sapong CHI FW $6.10

2019 Week 24 Behind the Numbers Team

Here’s my first draft of the Behind the Numbers Team based on the discussion above.

If you’d like to follow me on twitter, I’m @MLSFB_BTN. I typically post my updated lineup before the games start to show if my thinking has changed since this column went up.’

Resources for nerding out about MLS Fantasy

  • http://www.mlscheatsheet.com/ — Bonus point data, projections and more
  • https://www.americansocceranalysis.com/asa-xgoals — Interactive xG and passing data
  • https://www.whoscored.com/ — Analytics based player ratings

About Kyle Mcelhinny

Scientist by day, soccer fan by night. Nerd always. Using stats to overcome my lack of knowledge about the beautiful game.

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One comment

  1. Great article, thanks again for these numbers and picks for when the reaffirm my choices and highlight options I hadn’t considered.

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