Behind the Numbers: MLS Fantasy Week 28

Behind the Numbers

Week 27 Recap

Sometimes it’s better to be lucky than good. I ended up missing lineups left and right and had a bunch of money wrapped up in players who didn’t start. But it forced me to bring in some cheaper players, mainly from COL who ended up scoring really well. 82 points for WR 324 and up to OR 301 overall.

This has definitely been a tricky part of the season to navigate, so we’ll have to continue to watch lineups on wednesday.

Week 27 True Dream Team

Here are the rules.

  • only three players per team
  • must be a valid formation
  • must fit in the average budget for that week
  • ties are broken with lowest value player making the team
  • the bench is all 4.0 scrubs

So here’s the Week 27 TRUE Dream Team

Week 28 Team Defense Rankings

Projections provided by @thedummyrun on twitter.

Total Budget this Week: BTN Budget: $124.5

Goalkeepers

Top Teams

NYC, MIN, RSL, TOR

The Player Pool

Must Haves

None

Top Options

Vito Mannone MIN GK $8.30
Nick Rimando RSL GK $8.80
Sean Johnson NYC GK $6.90

Price Rise Targets (Form/$ >~ 1.00)

Clint Irwin COL GK $4.60

Value Players (PP90/$)

Clint Irwin COL GK $4.60
David Bingham LA GK $7.20

Bargain Bin

Clint Irwin COL GK $4.60

Notes

On DGW, I just keep it simple with a single keeper. Hard to go wrong with the double home game keeper.

Defenders

Top Teams

NYC, MIN, RSL, TOR

The Player Pool

Must Haves

None

Top Options

Romain Metanire MIN DF $8.80
Auro TOR DF $8.40
Anton Tinnerholm NYC DF $8.80
Justen Glad RSL DF $9.50

Price Rise Targets (Form/$ >~ 1.00)

Daniel Steres LA DF $5.20
Brent Kallman MIN DF $5.10
Ronald Matarrita NYC DF $5.70
Tommy Smith COL DF $5.20

Value Players (PP90/$)

Brent Kallman MIN DF $5.10
Daniel Steres LA DF $5.20
Ronald Matarrita NYC DF $5.70
Tommy Smith COL DF $5.20

Notes

I’ve championed putting money in the back and with all the rotation this week, its worth spending up for a little stability.

Week 28 Team Offense Rankings

Projections provided by @thedummyrun on twitter.

Week 28 Top 50 Player Projections

Midfielders

The Player Pool

Top Teams

NYC, LAG, TOR, COL, MIN

Must Haves

None

Top Options

Alejandro Pozuelo TOR MF $9.60
Cristian Pavon LA MF $10.50
Alexander Ring NYC MF $9.10
Jonathan Lewis COL MF $7.90
Magnus Eriksson SJ MF $11.30
Michael Bradley TOR MF $9.60
Jack Price COL MF $8.40

Price Rise Targets (Form/$ >~ 1.00)

None

Value Players (PP90/$)

Nick DeLeon TOR MF $5.80
Nicolas Mezquida COL MF $4.80
Nicolas Benezet TOR MF $8.00

Notes

I haven’t really found any issue with having enough money with the options this week. Again with all the rotation, I think you can win the week just by playing it safe and picking guys with a high probability of going 180.

Forwards

The Player Pool

Top Teams

NYC, LAG, TOR, COL, MIN

Must Haves

Zlatan Ibrahimovic LA FW $12.30

Top Options

Valentin Castellanos NYC FW $7.30
Andre Shinyashiki COL FW $6.30
Chris Wondolowski SJ FW $7.90
Jozy Altidore TOR FW $10.20
Carlos Darwin Quintero MIN FW $8.10

Price Rise Targets (Form/$) >~ 1.00

Valentin Castellanos NYC FW $7.30
Chris Wondolowski SJ FW $7.90
Andre Shinyashiki COL FW $6.30

Value Players (PP90/$)

Valentin Castellanos NYC FW $7.30
Chris Wondolowski SJ FW $7.90
Andre Shinyashiki COL FW $6.30

Notes

Outside of Zlatan, not sure who’s going to play a lot this week. I’d like to put Zlatan in the autoroo and captain someone else, but I haven’t found anyone else yet who seems like a better option.

2019 Week 28 Behind the Numbers Team

Here’s my first draft of the Behind the Numbers Team based on the discussion above. I’m gonna be honest guys, there’s not much correlation between the stats this week and the choices I wanted to make.

If you’d like to follow me on twitter, I’m @MLSFB_BTN. I typically post my updated lineup before the games start to show if my thinking has changed since this column went up.’

Resources for nerding out about MLS Fantasy

  • http://www.mlscheatsheet.com/ — Bonus point data, projections and more
  • https://www.americansocceranalysis.com/asa-xgoals — Interactive xG and passing data
  • https://www.whoscored.com/ — Analytics based player ratings

About Kyle Mcelhinny

Scientist by day, soccer fan by night. Nerd always. Using stats to overcome my lack of knowledge about the beautiful game.

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