Round 1 Differentials

Bold Predictions Round 18

Hello and welcome back to the Fantasy MLS season! I’m sure everybody is as excited as I am to be tinkering rosters and stressing every week. To help ease that stress, I’ve made a list of some value-pick differentials for Game Week 1. For people who don’t know, a differential is a less common pick that has the potential to either score high or score low. It’s away to stray from the pack, but you could be straying the wrong way. A diamond in the rough, if you will. It’s a way to play catch-up (take a big lead GW1), or fall further behind. There are 5 CCL teams this week, which can play a factor into differential picks if you choose to pick your own. Those teams are Seattle, New England, NYCFC, Montreal, and Colorado. I’m going to try my best to limit these articles to 1 player/position per team.

 

FC Dallas Goalkeeper (Maurer or Paes)

Last season Dallas had one of the highest goals against in the league at 56. They definitely struggled quite a bit and it showed. However, in week 1, Dallas gets to play Toronto FC, who scored just 39 goals in 34 games last season. Not only did they only score 39 goals, but they also only had 9 players with 2+ goals this season. 5 out of those 9 players are not returning to the team this season, nor is their top assist leader Yeferson Soteldo. In other words, Toronto is hurting for goal scorers after all of the turnover within the team. This sets up for a perfect opportunity for FC Dallas to open the season with a clean sheet, whether it be with their veteran Jimmy Maurer or new transfer Maarten Paes.

Charlotte Centerbacks (Sobocinski $5.5/Walkes $6.0)

Charlotte is going to be a team that is very unpredictable to start the season. For this reason, picking the right players on an unpredictable team is tough. Center Backs are usually the safest bet when it comes to picks due to the bonus point generation. Playing away to DC United in week 1, who just lost Paul Arriola, Charlotte could potentially end up with a 0-0 game or keep the game close. Is this a safe differential? Probably not. Am I still willing to buy into at least 1 Charlotte player going into GW1? Yes.

Houston defense (Tim Parker, $6.0 & Steve Clark, $6.5)

Houston defense is not a defense that you think of being strong, but let’s go over the new(er) acquisitions. Last year, Houston picked up Tim Parker who was a stalwart center back for them last season. They also later added Teenage Hadabe, who honestly wasn’t a half-bad pair to Parker. However, the best pickup in the defensive side of things came in the form of former Portland man, Steve Clark. Clark is a very strong goalkeeper who was the main man for Portland from 2018 to 2021, leading them to an MLS Cup finals in 2018. ON TOP OF ALL OF THIS.. Houston gets a home opener against RSL, who just lost their star playmaker Albert Rusnak. Needless to say, I see a shutout in this match in favor of Houston.

Pedro Santos, $8.0 (Columbus Mid)

Let’s be honest, Zelarayan is going to be the chalky pick based on being the primary playmaker and PK taker. But you know who else is good in Columbus? Pedro Santos a.k.a. Pantos. Playing at home against a lackluster Vancouver team who is missing the biggest key to their defense last season, Max Crepeau, I expect Columbus to roll over Vancouver. Don’t be surprised to see a 4-0 or 4-2 scoreline on the opening day. Last season, Pedro played as a Left Wing Back for a good chunk of the year. I will still be likely picking him whether he is there again or in the midfield in this game because the game just screams Columbus win.

Ethan Finlay, $7.0 (Austin FC Mid)

“Oh, you mean the Ethan Finlay who plays for Minnesota? Is he even a starter?” Nope. He’s not with Minnesota anymore. “Wait, is he back with Columbus?” Also wrong. He doesn’t play for Columbus anymore. He’s actually in Austin now. I know what you’re thinking: “But Austin is a bad team. They were the 2nd worst team in the Western Conference (31 pts) last year!” Here me out: Austin gets to play at home against the worst team between both conferences last season: Cincinnati (20 pts). What was the position that usually scored really high against Cincinnati in the past? Wingers. With Cecilio Dominguez likely playing the left wing and either Finlay, Fagundez ($7.0), or Stroud ($5.5) on the right, I would pick whoever is that right winger. Dominguez will likely have a higher price tag, while the right winger will be the cheaper, budget friendly differential pick. (credit to SamuraiPanda for this pick)

Victor Vazquez, $5.0 or Sasha Kljestan, $6.0 (LA Galaxy Mid)

Breaking my own rule twice in week 1. Man, I really need to look into rewriting this “rule.” One of these two guys should be the #10 for the LA Galaxy. Kljestan has a career for the NYRB, where he was the assist leader for three years, racking up 36 assists and 17 goals over the time period. Victor Vazquez has an equally impressive statline in two years of playing in Toronto. He put up 18 goals and 15 assists between the 2017 and 2018 seasons. The prices of both Vazquez and Kljestan will provide a decent score for their price, while also saving you the budget to upgrade elsewhere.

Facundo Torres, $7.5 (Orlando Mid)

I don’t have a whole lot to say about how good Facundo Torres is. Nor do I know if he will even start versus Montreal. To be totally honest, I have ZERO intel on who Facundo Torres is. I just have a gut feeling that somebody from Orlando is going to have a really good game against Montreal, and he was the cheapest midfielder that has the potential to start. Why? Because Montreal has a CCL game mid-week, and Orlando is a wildcard with their roster turnover. Want to splash some money to have fun picking a random player? Let’s grab a new player to the league!

Kevin Cabral, $8.0 (LA Galaxy Forward)

Kevin Cabral, a 22 year old forward is quickly becoming a household name in Los Angeles for his speed and footwork. Typically lining up as a left winger, but listed in the fantasy game as a forward, Cabral offers bonus points in the form of crosses, key passes, and shots. Did I mention that he was fast? This dude just scored a goal while you were reading this. He may compete as the fastest guy in the league right now. Cabral offers a lot of assist and goal scoring potential for a club that prides themselves in having good players. Oh and to finish off this spiel, LA gets to host NYC, who have a midweek CCL matchup, meaning they’ll either be rotated or have tired legs in the opening weekend.

Julian Carranza, $7.5 or Sergio Santos, $8.0 (Philadelphia Forward)

There’s a chance that both of these guys start for Philadelphia, as Uhre isn’t with the team yet. However, if he is available, whichever forward is lined up next to Uhre deserves a bench spot on your team. Coming to Philadelphia on a loan from Inter Miami, I expect Carranza to come into the season trying to prove a point. Sergio Santos has had up and down seasons the last two years. A breakout in 2020, then a mediocre year in 2021. Here’s to having another breakout in 2022! The Union team has most of their players returning for this year aside from Przybylko (which they signed Uhre to replace him). Finishing last season 2nd in the Eastern Conference to only the record-breaking season of New England, I expect the Union to be another great team this year. Having service from some of the best crossers in the league, taking a flier on a cheap starting forward in the first game of the week seems like a no brainer!

Darwin Quintero, $7.5 (Houston Forward)

I know I said I would only write about 1 position per team, but Darwin Quintero is sitting at such a cheap price, it’s hard to ignore. Only $7.5 for a forward that in the past would drop double digit scores like they’re going out of style? If Darwin gets a start in week 1 against Real Salt Lake at home, he deserves a look. Tab Ramos versus Darwin Quintero: Who will win the argument going into week 1?

About Tyler Norman

Moderator of MLS Fantasy Boss Discord, new contributing writer for mlsfantasyboss.com. Soccer and fantasy sports enthusiast.

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