Stats Summary – Week 28: Recent vs Old Form

A huge part of fantasy is picking up a guy just as he’s about to get hot and before others get him, and dropping guys about to go cold. There’s a couple schools of thought about how you can spot these kinds of changes in form.

The first question you have to find an answer to is “Did their situation change?” This happens when something changes either within the team or for the individual player. Be on the lookout for things like position changes, set piece duty changes, and teammates they either play really well with or really poorly with coming into or out of the starting lineup.

If their situation remained the same, the next question to ask is “Which form is their true form? The recent or the old?” In general, I lean toward the old form being their true form when the situation hasn’t changed. Sample size is important and a recent blip doesn’t mean someone is suddenly good or suddenly bad in fantasy.

Here’s a table that compares the last 10 game weeks PPG to the first 18 game weeks PPG. Games were only counted if they played more than 45 minutes. I’ll talk about a couple of the big movers who are fantasy favorites and give some reasons for why their form has changed and whether to trust the new form or the old.

web_name	team_short	position_short	PPG difference between first 18 weeks and last 10	Minutes weeks 19-28	PPG weeks 19-28	Minutes weeks 1-18	PPG weeks 1-18
Hairston	COL	DEF	6.2	426	10	397	3.8
Dempsey	SEA	FWD	4.2909	418	8.2	977	3.9091
Peterson	SKC	MID	3.7143	628	6	557	2.2857
Acosta	DC	FWD	3.4167	696	6.5	868	3.0833
Wright-Phillips	NY	FWD	2.8888	729	8.4444	1517	5.5556
Morales	RSL	MID	2.6767	797	7.2222	954	4.5455
Watson	NE	DEF	2.4167	540	6.1667	1052	3.75
Donadel	MTL	MID	2.3333	479	5	486	2.6667
Molino	ORL	MID	2.3333	524	8.3333	1300	6
Olave	RSL	DEF	2.125	540	5.5	671	3.375
Barnetta	PHI	MID	1.9829	810	6.4444	1120	4.4615
Giovinco	TOR	FWD	1.8194	776	10.4444	1438	8.625
Kljestan	NY	MID	1.7941	708	8.5	1399	6.7059
Nocerino	ORL	MID	1.7917	492	3.6667	619	1.875
Finlay	CLB	MID	1.7667	487	6.1667	1253	4.4
Oyongo	MTL	DEF	1.75	677	5.5	1080	3.75
Accam	CHI	MID	1.7111	450	7.6	791	5.8889
J Taylor	POR	DEF	1.7	450	5.2	1260	3.5
Fagundez	NE	MID	1.6667	392	5.6	1200	3.9333
Sam	DC	MID	1.6346	598	6.25	980	4.6154
Birnbaum	DC	DEF	1.6111	810	5.7778	1080	4.1667
Knighton	NE	GKP	1.55	450	4.8	360	3.25
Beltran	RSL	DEF	1.4732	615	4.2857	1440	2.8125
Powell	POR	DEF	1.4	694	5	875	3.6
Gruezo	DAL	MID	1.4	505	4.6667	1249	3.2667
Saied	CLB	MID	1.3334	492	5.1667	979	3.8333
Alvarez	CHI	MID	1.2545	378	5.8	855	4.5455
Alex	HOU	MID	1.2321	720	5.875	1199	4.6429
Cole	LA	DEF	1.0962	720	4.25	1141	3.1538
dos Santos	LA	FWD	1.0846	895	7.7	1107	6.6154
Dwyer	SKC	FWD	1.0417	708	5.875	1598	4.8333
Williams	TOR	DEF	1.0333	434	5.2	475	4.1667
Miller	COL	DEF	1	540	4.5	849	3.5
Laba	VAN	MID	0.9722	675	4.75	1586	3.7778
Delgado	TOR	MID	0.9545	686	4.5	913	3.5455
Rogers	LA	DEF	0.9167	360	5.25	810	4.3333
Tierney	NE	DEF	0.8651	772	5.2222	1227	4.3571
Farrell	NE	DEF	0.8334	810	4.6667	1620	3.8333
Maund	RSL	DEF	0.7833	360	4.25	1350	3.4667
Acosta	DAL	MID	0.7667	540	5.1667	1260	4.4
Kaká	ORL	MID	0.75	653	8.625	709	7.875
Lletget	LA	MID	0.7024	579	5.2857	988	4.5833
Gerrard	LA	MID	0.7	439	7.6	866	6.9
Espinoza	SKC	MID	0.6992	615	4.8571	1703	4.1579
Meram	CLB	MID	0.6875	672	6.25	1279	5.5625
Phillips	RSL	DEF	0.6666	810	5.4444	787	4.7778
Morrow	TOR	DEF	0.6302	630	5.5714	1438	4.9412
Waston	VAN	DEF	0.625	720	4.625	1220	4
Nyarko	DC	MID	0.6111	597	6.5	747	5.8889
Barrios	DAL	MID	0.6051	582	5.4286	1343	4.8235
Rodriguez	HOU	DEF	0.6	450	4.6	1260	4
Godoy	SJ	MID	0.5834	538	5.1667	1048	4.5833
Hernandez	NYC	DEF	0.5556	426	4	1603	3.4444
Meira	CHI	DEF	0.5195	630	4.4286	940	3.9091
Perez Garcia	ORL	MID	0.4889	400	4.6	650	4.1111
Adi	POR	FWD	0.4853	704	5.25	1417	4.7647
Opara	SKC	DEF	0.4727	450	5.2	907	4.7273
Davis	NY	MID	0.4643	589	5.7143	360	5.25
Watts	COL	DEF	0.4286	360	5	630	4.5714
Zubar	NY	DEF	0.4156	630	5.1429	931	4.7273
Cocis	CHI	MID	0.4	418	5.6	873	5.2
Brillant	NYC	DEF	0.375	720	4.875	1620	4.5
Beitashour	TOR	DEF	0.375	674	4.75	1438	4.375
Beckerman	RSL	MID	0.3727	895	4.1	990	3.7273
Goncalves	NE	DEF	0.3681	810	3.5556	1440	3.1875
Gashi	COL	FWD	0.3333	608	6	964	5.6667
Alston	ORL	DEF	0.3333	810	2.4444	777	2.1111
Olum	SKC	MID	0.3167	450	4.4	1003	4.0833
Figueroa	DAL	DEF	0.2889	450	4.4	1620	4.1111
Amarikwa	SJ	FWD	0.2857	455	4	1178	3.7143
Dawkins	SJ	MID	0.2857	613	4.7143	1198	4.4286
Van Damme	LA	DEF	0.2833	703	4.75	1326	4.4667
Glad	RSL	DEF	0.2679	720	4.625	1260	4.3571
Rosenberry	PHI	DEF	0.2579	900	4.1	1710	3.8421
Chara	POR	MID	0.254	608	4.1429	1620	3.8889
Rowe	NE	MID	0.2529	866	4.9	1516	4.6471
Morris	SEA	FWD	0.2279	710	4.875	1444	4.6471
Roldan	SEA	MID	0.2136	799	4.4444	1115	4.2308
Ciman	MTL	DEF	0.1964	720	4.625	1223	4.4286
Pontius	PHI	MID	0.1889	849	5.3	1350	5.1111
Trapp	CLB	MID	0.1667	540	4.1667	1602	4
Harvey	VAN	DEF	0.1579	360	4	1710	3.8421
Melano	POR	FWD	0.1579	566	4	1565	3.8421
Bendik	ORL	GKP	0.1556	900	4.1	1620	3.9444
Duvall	NY	DEF	0.1	450	4.4	888	4.3
Bingham	SJ	GKP	0.0833	720	4.75	1620	4.6667
Mulholland	RSL	MID	0.0682	644	4.25	866	4.1818
Shuttleworth	NE	GKP	0.0667	450	4.2	1350	4.1333
Urruti	DAL	FWD	0.0625	565	5	1387	4.9375
Wingert	RSL	DEF	0.0462	399	2.2	1025	2.1538
Polster	CHI	MID	0.0417	664	4.375	789	4.3333
Osorio	TOR	MID	0.0277	795	4.4444	1038	4.4167
Movsisyan	RSL	FWD	0	420	5	1473	5
McNamara	NYC	MID	-0.0179	569	4.8571	1194	4.875
Camara	MTL	DEF	-0.0455	900	4.5	966	4.5455
Bernardez	SJ	DEF	-0.0694	768	4.5556	1426	4.625
Jewsbury	POR	MID	-0.0857	594	3.7143	450	3.8
Mateos	ORL	DEF	-0.0972	709	3.125	810	3.2222
Plata	RSL	FWD	-0.1286	874	6.3	1218	6.4286
Tribbett	PHI	DEF	-0.1333	450	4.2	810	4.3333
Fabinho	PHI	DEF	-0.1349	810	4.2222	1209	4.3571
Woodberry	NE	DEF	-0.1429	630	3.8571	962	4
Rowe	LA	GKP	-0.1438	804	5.4444	1511	5.5882
Caldwell	NE	MID	-0.1961	715	3.3333	1402	3.5294
Larin	ORL	FWD	-0.2222	780	5.7778	1150	6
DeLeon	DC	MID	-0.2353	525	3	1491	3.2353
Tchani	CLB	MID	-0.2381	625	4.4286	796	4.6667
Wynne	SJ	DEF	-0.2605	630	3.8571	1497	4.1176
Parkhurst	CLB	DEF	-0.2777	794	3.6667	1609	3.9444
Lawrence	NY	DEF	-0.3	450	2.8	856	3.1
Zimmerman	DAL	DEF	-0.3015	630	5.1429	1620	5.4444
Parker	VAN	DEF	-0.3158	540	3	1710	3.3158
Carrasco	ORL	MID	-0.3333	764	3.5556	787	3.8889
Koffie	NE	MID	-0.3636	483	4	893	4.3636
Maidana	HOU	MID	-0.3714	531	4.4286	698	4.8
Yaro	PHI	DEF	-0.375	360	4.5	716	4.875
Burch	COL	DEF	-0.3889	810	4.4444	1076	4.8333
B Garcia	HOU	MID	-0.4	769	5	826	5.4
Harris	DAL	DEF	-0.4143	608	4.2857	872	4.7
Jeffrey	DC	MID	-0.4286	375	3	604	3.4286
Iraola	NYC	DEF	-0.4404	561	4.1429	1080	4.5833
Pirlo	NYC	MID	-0.4444	772	5	1557	5.4444
Toia	MTL	DEF	-0.4524	540	3.8333	630	4.2857
Hines	ORL	DEF	-0.4615	531	4	1170	4.4615
Rimando	RSL	GKP	-0.4667	900	4.2	1350	4.6667
Kemp	DC	DEF	-0.4722	720	4.25	1620	4.7222
Ousted	VAN	GKP	-0.4778	810	4.2222	1800	4.7
S Williams	HOU	DEF	-0.4889	805	2.1111	434	2.6
Nagbe	POR	MID	-0.5	720	5	1245	5.5
Saunders	NYC	GKP	-0.5389	810	4.1111	1800	4.65
Marshall	SEA	DEF	-0.5417	720	4.125	1310	4.6667
Marquez	PHI	DEF	-0.5444	900	3.4	1620	3.9444
Powers	COL	MID	-0.5556	773	4.1111	783	4.6667
Sarvas	DC	MID	-0.5625	672	4.875	1399	5.4375
Clark	HOU	MID	-0.6111	496	3.6667	1579	4.2778
Ivanschitz	SEA	MID	-0.6429	525	4.2857	1107	4.9286
Ceren	ORL	MID	-0.6666	540	3.1667	990	3.8333
Clark	CLB	GKP	-0.6667	810	4	1620	4.6667
Blake	PHI	GKP	-0.6667	810	4.2222	1620	4.8889
Collin	NY	DEF	-0.6667	750	4.1111	809	4.7778
Muyl	NY	MID	-0.675	640	3.125	391	3.8
Villa	NYC	FWD	-0.6776	692	6.375	1710	7.0526
Lampard	NYC	MID	-0.6889	802	7.1111	369	7.8
Creavalle	PHI	MID	-0.7	619	4	852	4.7
Boateng	LA	FWD	-0.7083	618	4.125	488	4.8333
de Jong	LA	MID	-0.75	497	3.5	1060	4.25
Robles	NY	GKP	-0.7667	810	4.3333	1800	5.1
Gleeson	POR	GKP	-0.7692	810	4	1170	4.7692
Feilhaber	SKC	MID	-0.7917	706	5.875	1323	6.6667
Quintero	SJ	MID	-0.8222	707	4.1111	1135	4.9333
Steres	LA	DEF	-0.8466	947	4.0909	1440	4.9375
Felipe	NY	MID	-0.8596	810	4.6667	1634	5.5263
Willis	HOU	GKP	-0.8889	810	4.2222	791	5.1111
Solignac	CHI	FWD	-0.9167	536	3.5	1027	4.4167
Jacobson	VAN	MID	-0.9167	495	3	1049	3.9167
Cronin	COL	MID	-1	800	3.4444	1611	4.4444
Mears	SEA	DEF	-1	720	2.875	1440	3.875
Alashe	SJ	MID	-1	531	2.6667	1282	3.6667
Abdul-Salaam	SKC	DEF	-1	611	3.1429	1235	4.1429
Bradley	TOR	MID	-1	540	5	1080	6
Vincent	CHI	DEF	-1	708	3	990	4
Johnson	CHI	GKP	-1	720	3.875	720	4.875
Bush	MTL	GKP	-1	770	3.1111	1620	4.1111
Anibaba	HOU	DEF	-1.0318	810	3.1111	1248	4.1429
Boden	ORL	DEF	-1.0635	810	3.2222	550	4.2857
Horst	HOU	DEF	-1.0714	589	3.4286	1440	4.5
Cabrera	MTL	DEF	-1.0833	450	4	1080	5.0833
Piatti	MTL	MID	-1.1046	807	6.7778	1530	7.8824
Franklin	DC	DEF	-1.1111	783	3.3333	1620	4.4444
Zizzo	NY	DEF	-1.125	377	3	1436	4.125
Warner	HOU	MID	-1.1587	743	2.5556	614	3.7143
Kappelhof	CHI	DEF	-1.1875	785	3	1440	4.1875
Kudo	VAN	FWD	-1.2	361	3	378	4.2
Mustivar	SKC	MID	-1.2167	445	3.2	1070	4.4167
Boswell	DC	DEF	-1.25	720	3.25	1440	4.5
Afful	CLB	DEF	-1.25	686	4	1412	5.25
Harrison	NYC	MID	-1.2619	598	4.5714	511	5.8333
Campbell	CHI	DEF	-1.2847	766	3.7778	1440	5.0625
Moor	TOR	DEF	-1.3125	900	4.5	1440	5.8125
Ridgewell	POR	DEF	-1.3334	540	2.8333	1080	4.1667
Bunbury	NE	MID	-1.3718	444	2.1667	997	3.5385
Seitz	DAL	GKP	-1.4107	630	3.7143	1440	5.125
Alonso	SEA	MID	-1.4167	720	5.25	1591	6.6667
Bolaños	VAN	MID	-1.4286	617	4.5714	1102	6
Martinez	RSL	FWD	-1.4429	853	4.2	1214	5.6429
Valeri	POR	MID	-1.4583	805	6.6667	1402	8.125
DeLaGarza	LA	DEF	-1.4583	720	2.875	1070	4.3333
Grella	NY	MID	-1.4722	657	3.75	1469	5.2222
Sjoberg	COL	DEF	-1.4931	791	4.4444	1440	5.9375
Ilsinho	PHI	MID	-1.5	391	3	563	4.5
Wondolowski	SJ	FWD	-1.6032	806	4.1111	1260	5.7143
K. Kamara	NE	FWD	-1.625	709	3.375	1509	5
Hollingshead	DAL	MID	-1.6462	409	3.2	1155	4.8462
Frei	SEA	GKP	-1.719	810	3.2222	1530	4.9412
Burling	COL	DEF	-1.8	450	3.8	874	5.6
Evans	SEA	DEF	-1.8333	720	3.5	1074	5.3333
Larentowicz	LA	MID	-1.881	552	3.2857	511	5.1667
Medranda	SKC	MID	-1.8975	487	3.3333	1110	5.2308
Hedges	DAL	DEF	-1.9423	720	3.75	1163	5.6923
K Doyle	COL	FWD	-1.9615	720	2.5	1170	4.4615
Sapong	PHI	FWD	-2.0222	787	3.1111	1313	5.1333
Allen	NYC	DEF	-2.0909	405	4	967	6.0909
Díaz	DAL	MID	-2.0989	612	6.2857	1111	8.3846
Barnes	HOU	FWD	-2.2424	499	2.6667	982	4.9091
Zardes	LA	FWD	-2.25	494	3.8333	1080	6.0833
Mena	NYC	DEF	-2.4167	512	3.8333	360	6.25
Nguyen	NE	MID	-2.4444	873	4	1578	6.4444
Hamid	DC	GKP	-2.6666	810	3.6667	540	6.3333
Zavaleta	TOR	DEF	-2.8	450	3.4	447	6.2
O. Kamara	CLB	FWD	-2.875	689	5.25	720	8.125
Drogba	MTL	FWD	-2.875	657	5	699	7.875
Jones	SEA	DEF	-2.9083	631	1.625	1307	4.5333
Keane	LA	FWD	-3.5	450	3	675	6.5
Morales	VAN	MID	-3.6667	671	3.75	997	7.4167

Hairston: starting playing as a winger instead of defender. If he can get his starting spot back after injury, I think he lands somewhere between the new and old form.

Acosta: Patrick Mullins changed the dynamic of this team. I think this is Acosta’s new standard.

BWP: Situation is the same. But his early season woes were well documented and we predicted he’d get out of the rut based on his expected goals. His true output is slightly lower than current, but not nearly as bad as the start of the season.

Giovinco: He’s better with Jozy on the field, despite what Mr. Guy Sanchez says. Plus they’ve had more home games in the second period because of the massive away trip TFC had to start the season. Now out with injury, but I think his form will hold.

Kljestan: exact same as BWP.

Finlay: This one is hard to call as I didn’t believe last year’s Finlay was the true Finlay, and his recent form isn’t even up to those standards. I think his early season was a blip and his last 10 are closer to what we can expect.

Accam: New forward in de Leeuw helps this team’s spacing in attack. I think the recent Accam is the real Accam.

Dos Santos: It has recently been pointed out by several people that his production suffers greatly with Keane on the field. And Keane is about to come back on the field. I think he moves back toward his first-period form.

P.Morales: His PKs dried up and so did his points, just as predicted.

Keane: Age looks like it is finally catching up to him as he battles more injuries. I think his form moving forward lands somewhere between 3 and 6.5 PPG. Losing Zardes hurts Keane massively as he has to deal with center backs more.

Drogba: I think the injuries are taking their toll recently but I don’t expect him to remain this poor.

Ola Kamara: During his ridiculous hot streak earlier this season, he wasn’t outperforming expected goals. Now he’s under performing and I think that is just a temporary blip and he’ll be scoring again soon.

Nguyen: New England have suddenly come to life in attack with the formation shift, but I think it is at the expense of Nguyen and I don’t expect much from him moving forward.

Diaz: This one surprised me to see him fall so far. Losing Castillo means defenses can shift easier to cover Diaz. I think he gets a minor bump over recent form.

Sapong: I honestly don’t follow the Union enough to know if anything has changed for him… sorry.

Valeri: Jewsbury takes set pieces away from Valeri, meaning fewer bonus points. Once Jewsbury gets booted to the bench, Valeri will be back.

Piatti: I think this is closer to what we can expect from Piatti. His expected goals have been way lower than his actual goals all season.